Tobin Smith’s Fearless Forecasts

Last Updated: March 23, 2009Posted in Individual Gurus

Guru Accuracy Rating

50%

This is above average.

Current guru average is 47%

We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of products, companies and industries well ahead of other available sources.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We find that:

  • We have relied mostly on Tobin Smith’s “Short-Term Market Forecast” feature, which has not always short term. However, he eliminated that feature commencing March 2007, so we now peruse his commentary for overall stock market outlooks. We skip issues in which there is no market forecast call or the forecast is unusually conditional/equivocal.
  • Much of his early commentary is Nasdaq-centric. We depend upon the generally reliable co-movement of the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index in our analysis. We use the former index for consistency with other reviews. We check the latter to test his specific forecasts for its value.
  • His occasional dramatic reversals of opinion shed doubt on depth of analysis. (See 12/13/00-1/3/01; 1/31/01-2/7/01; 1/9/02-1/16/02; 4/16/03-4/23/03; 2/18/04-2/25/04; 8/24/05-9/7/05; 3/8/06-3/15/06, 12/7/07-1/14/08.)
  • Tobin Smith’s forecast sample size is large, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is high.

Here is an additional note to augment the tabular summary:

From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (9/20/05): “The HFD [Hulbert Financial Digest] has been tracking Smith’s newsletter since July 2002, a little more than three years ago. Since then, according to the HFD’s calculations, it has produced a 9.3% annualized return, in contrast to 13.8% annualized for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index.”

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

    S&P 500 Index  
Date Comments from:  Tobin Smith at WaveWire 5-Day Return 21-Day Return 63-Day Return 254-Day Return  
3/23/09 Don’t Let This Rally Fool You…ChangeWave’s latest consumer spending survey does not paint a pretty picture for those people who think that the current rally is the start of the next bull market. -4.3% 2.5% 11.9% 41.7% -
3/11/09 The…bear market rally that began on Tuesday could carry on for the next three to four weeks, or more. …The market is almost positively headed lower in the months ahead. 10.1% 18.7% 30.6% 59.5% -
3/4/09 I anticipate further declines of perhaps another 25% from today’s level. 1.2% 17.0% 32.5% 59.7% -
2/25/09 …stocks are still trading at 20% to 40% above the anticipated bottom…in the neighborhood of 550 for the S&P 500… -6.8% 8.9% 19.0% 45.9% -
2/11/09 Any near-term bounce back will be short-lived, and the more-likely scenario now is for the market to go even lower than we saw in November. -6.6% -9.3% 8.9% 31.3% +
1/7/09 …the market will bottom sometime in the first quarter. …it is likely that we will see a retest of the November lows. …So it’s time for investors to begin to alter their mindsets and start viewing big down days as buying opportunities. -7.1% -4.2% -10.0% 26.5% +
12/24/08 We don’t need good economic news for stocks to go up again — we just need the bad news to not be as bad as investors expect. That time probably won’t be with us until the second quarter of 2009, at the earliest…stay hunkered down… 7.3% -2.6% -4.1% 29.7% +
11/19/08 Just wait until the 2009 earnings revisions start to take effect… .it is far too early to start buying stocks as though the bottom was in. 10.1% 10.1% -4.5% 37.2% +
11/12/08 There’s never been a better time to play the short side of the market. -5.4% 3.2% -2.0% 30.2% +
11/5/08 I think that the market has clearly given us a tradeable bottom here. …we now have a mini bull market rally that could take us 10% higher before the underlying reality of a steep recession hits the market in early January. -10.5% -8.1% -11.2% 14.7% -
10/17/08 There will be a time to buy, but all of our indicators tell us that we have more time before we dive in aggressively again. -11.0% -13.7% -13.7% 9.7% +
10/8/08 …we have not reached the bottom yet. And there’s a simple reason why I know that there is more pain ahead. Check out today’s Rant to see why I’m certain we’ll see Dow 8,500 before this mess is over… -7.8% -8.1% -7.9% 9.3% +
9/22/08 …the pace of this economic downturn is accelerating. …we have to be prepared for substantial turmoil in the months ahead, regardless of the government’s $700 billion bailout plan. -8.3% -25.7% -26.7% -12.9% +
7/18/08 …I think the bears are still in control, so you really need a good shorting strategy to profit these days. -0.2% 1.4% -28.0% -24.3% +
4/25/08 Somehow, the markets managed to post gains for the second consecutive week, but rising geopolitical concerns could combine with everything else to bring that streak to an end. 0.7% -0.9% -10.4% -37.5% +
4/11/08 …we are at or very near the bottom of this bear market, but…there are still more land mines out there that warrant investors’ continued caution. 4.3% 5.3% -6.0% -36.1% -
4/4/08 What investors should be doing now is looking ahead and getting positioned in the stocks that will make them the biggest profits when the next bull market takes off. -2.7% 3.5% -7.9% -40.5% -
3/26/08 I’d say we are at the beginning of the end of this bear market, which means that now is the time to step up to the plate and start nibbling on some of the stocks you want to own in 2009. 2.0% 3.6% -1.7% -39.2% -
3/12/08 …people want to believe that the Fed has saved the day and the bottom is in. …But what we are experiencing now is just an example of…bear market rallies… -0.8% 1.8% 3.8% -42.4% +
1/23/08 …if you follow the “stay the course” advice as this bear market runs along its predictable path, you’ll end up sitting on assets that keep going down in value. 1.3% 1.1% 2.8% -37.5% +
1/18/08 Come to terms with the fact that the United States is entering an economic recession and a bear market for stocks. 2.2% 2.6% 4.9% -37.6% +
1/14/08 The results of our ChangeWave Alliance Post-Holiday Spending survey are in… They are screaming “recession” and much tougher times ahead for the U.S. stock market…”all good things must come to an end”… -7.5% -3.5% -6.2% -40.4% +
12/7/07 …we have now entered the most bullish buying period since March 2003! -2.4% -6.3% -15.4% -40.2% -
11/28/07 Though I expect the market to remain quite volatile over the coming weeks, I fully expect the overall direction to be on the way up. …we’re headed for a year-end rally. 1.1% 0.6% -6.9% -44.4% -
9/19/07 …this bull market still has some steam left and what you’ll be missing if you’re sitting on the sidelines. …the folks sitting on their cash are going to rush back into the market. We have not seen the individual investor at all in this bull market since 2003, but we’ll see them jump back in at some point during the next 12 months. -0.2% 0.7% -5.4% -21.1% -
8/31/07 …you’ll be kicking yourself if you pass up the buying opportunities this correction is handing you on a silver platter. -1.5% 4.9% -0.3% -16.1% -
8/22/07 Stocks are cheap! And it’s time to start buying them before everyone else regains their sanity and starts doing the same thing. 0.0% 4.2% -2.1% -13.5% -
8/15/07 The bottom is coming… I can’t tell you whether it will be tomorrow or next week or the next week, but it sure looks to me that if we’re not there yet, we’re very, very close. You do not sell at bottoms, you buy at bottoms. 4.1% 5.5% 2.3% -9.1% +
8/8/07 …you should be buying the right stocks now… This should be my last panic talk because I think it’s about over. -6.1% -2.9% 0.3% -12.8% -
8/1/07 We may get one more of these sharp legs down, but this is a psychological issue, not a fundamental one. You want to be a buyer, not a seller. 2.2% -0.6% 5.1% -14.8% +
7/25/07 …we’ll be experiencing a nasty correction before summer turns to fall. …you want to be greedy when other people are panicky. -3.4% -3.7% -0.8% -18.7% +
7/18/07 …huge amount of cash…on the sidelines… As that cash starts to come back into the market because investors can’t stand to be on the sidelines any longer, that will be part of the recipe for Dow 20,000. -1.8% -8.7% 0.2% -18.5% -
7/11/07 …you’re going to hear all sorts of bad news this summer about subprime loans. You know we’re going to get a pullback, but it’s that pullback that gives you the next great buying opportunity. 1.8% -4.3% 2.2% -21.5% +
5/16/07 …the market is about 25% undervalued. …We’re on our way to Dow 20,000, baby! I’m talking about stocks with a 50% greater market in the next four to five years. 0.5% 1.2% -5.8% -5.8% -
5/2/07 You want to be BUYING now. Then you can sell your stocks to all the “geniuses” who will be ready to get back in the game in November. -0.3% 2.7% -2.7% -5.2% -
3/21/07 …let’s not go crazy by selling all our stocks, going to cash and getting into a bunker… Hang in there… -1.2% 3.4% 6.9% -5.7% +
2/28/07 …the next three to five days could bring the best opportunity that we have to buy stocks this year… So if you’re going to make a lot of money in 2007, not a little, you’ve got to be a buyer now. -1.1% 1.1% 7.9% -5.4% +
2/21/07 …buy some of these pullbacks…the market is still 15%-20% undervalued relative to the earnings power of these stocks. -3.5% -1.6% 4.6% -5.9% -
2/14/07 Just think how much higher this market will go when only 50% of the $200 billion in mutual fund money goes overseas instead of the current rate of 90%. 0.1% -4.7% 3.2% -7.3% -
1/31/07 …my 2007 stock market forecast of 10%+ growth is looking VERY low indeed. 0.8% -3.6% 3.3% -4.0% -
1/24/07 …when we get core inflation deflator below 2% for a few months, then we should see the short-term rates come back under 5%. …the market will explode upward…which is why you need to put your bets down NOW on the down days. The upward move will be crazy-fast… -0.1% 0.8% 2.8% -6.0% -
1/17/07 …we are buying the dips… 0.7% 1.8% 2.9% -7.4% +
12/13/06 …the market here is running out of gas for 2007. We could go sideways through year-end and take a small hit on low volume as 2006 closes. 0.7% 1.2% -1.9% 3.0% +
12/6/06 …expect an end-of-the-year pullback that anticipates a post-New Year’s selloff. …this will just give us yet another great entry point for undervalued stocks. 0.0% -0.1% -0.7% 4.6% -
11/29/06 …stocks are STILL…cheap relative to anything else — including cash. …If [the Fed cuts rates] (as we forecast for 2007), then stocks are an even better bargain… 1.0% 1.3% -0.9% 4.5% -
11/22/06 …expect the market to stay strong till year-end. There should be a pullback in the first 15 days of January… Once we get through mid-January…, watch out…we should all be very thankful in 2007. -0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 4.5% -
11/15/06 Use any “too strong” economic growth data pull backs as entry points…higher prices for stocks until Dec. 30 at least. 0.7% 2.2% 4.2% 3.1% +
11/8/06 “2007: The Best Year For Stocks This Century” …The race to Dow 15,000 is on and it will be the ride of your investment life. 0.8% 1.7% 3.8% 6.9% -
11/1/06 …we are WAY overdue for a consolidation of this amazing run. I’m looking for a 3%-5% pullback here on election jitters to give us some great entry points on many stocks. 1.3% 2.1% 5.9% 8.1% -
10/25/06 …expect a pullback here for all the markets… But not by too much — say S&P 500 1,350-1,325… Dow 15,500 and S&P 1,800 are coming… -1.0% 1.4% 2.9% 10.8% -
10/18/06 …the S&P 500 at 1,500? You bet — as soon as the Fed starts CUTTING rates. When does that happen? …the March Fed meeting. 1.2% 2.5% 4.7% 11.2% -
10/4/06 stocks win…the train is still at the station and there’s still time to get on board. 0.0% 1.3% 5.0% 15.9% +
9/27/06 …the healthiest market action I can remember for a long, long time. 1.0% 3.9% 6.0% 15.7% +
9/20/06 Overall our bullish thesis remains intact… 0.9% 3.2% 7.3% 14.5% +
9/13/06 …we are still very bullish about the market. 0.5% 3.4% 7.2% 15.3% +
9/6/06 …there is more money to be made on the upside than shorting stocks… 1.4% 4.1% 8.4% 13.2% +
8/30/06 …ride the market rally that really starts to take off after the Fed gets the August inflation numbers and it sees 100,000 or so job growth. …Dow 12,000 and S&P 500 1,400 will come next. -0.8% 2.4% 6.3% 12.9% +
8/16/06 Look for the market to break out of the gravitational pull of the S&P 1,290 vortex as more and more soft-landing evidence makes the Sept. 20 Fed meeting a cakewalk. -0.2% 1.9% 6.9% 11.7% +
8/2/06 …position your portfolio for a soft landing, and be prepared to go 100% defensive at any time… -1.0% 2.0% 7.8% 15.5% +
7/26/06 …all who were going to sell have sold, and that, of course, is bullish. 0.8% 2.2% 8.6% 14.7% +
7/5/06 …equities will trade higher now that momentum is in the hands of the bulls. -1.0% 0.7% 4.8% 18.8% -
6/21/06 …you have a real opportunity to make the easiest money you have ever made in stocks if you recognize this meltdown for what it truly is. -0.5% -1.0% 5.3% 19.2% -
6/14/06 We sowed the seeds of a bottom last week with the fifth and sixth 90%-down days for stocks, and we just confirmed that bottom yesterday. …the “cheap” stocks relative to risk and reward are…U.S.-based stocks! …If you miss this gift, you will miss the easiest 20%-40% profits you ever made in stocks. 1.8% 0.5% 6.8% 24.7% +
6/7/06 Until we get the…signal from the Fed, we are hostage to the Dow 10,700 to 11,500 trading range undoubtedly. We will put our money to work VERY carefully, with one leg in and one leg ready to run for the hills. -2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 18.9% +
5/31/06 Bull markets do NOT end with an S&P 500 forward P/E of around 14.5 times 2006 earnings .. and dropping. THIS is the time when you and I make the most money by sowing the seeds of capital gains that we will harvest nine to 12 months in the future. Bottoms are ugly but I have not yet felt the need to curl up into the fetal position… That day will come soon … and it will be the day that our latest correctional bottom is in. -1.1% 0.2% 2.5% 20.5% +
5/17/06 The big money will be made from buying this correction, NOT selling into it. …cash will be very valuable soon. It’s getting there. -0.9% -1.5% 1.2% 20.0% +
5/3/06 We’ll get a pullback to key support as the market takes a breather… When do we get the pullback? When all the bulls and bears are bullish … and that MAY be this weekend. 1.1% -1.5% -2.8% 15.7% +
4/26/06 Stocks for 2006: 12,000 Dow, 2,400 Nasdaq and 1,350 S&P 500 in the bag. 0.2% -2.5% -2.8% 13.9% +
4/19/06 The lagging U.S. stock market is about to catch up to its superior growth fundamentals vis-à-vis the rest of the world’s markets. You have about 80 days to make sure you are positioned for lift-off after the end of the Fed’s rate hike campaign. -0.3% -3.7% -5.6% 13.0% -
4/12/06 There’s still time to sell into a little strength and build some cash. When the market gets its wind back, the fundamentals should give us another leg up. 1.8% 0.2% -2.3% 14.3% +
4/5/06 …my fearless, short-term market forecast is GREEN, GREEN, GREEN! -1.8% 1.1% -3.1% 9.7% -
3/29/06 Relative to all other alternatives (after tax), stocks are cheap. 0.7% 0.6% -4.9% 10.4% -
3/15/06 Last call for the S&P 1,400 train — she’s leaving the station. 0.2% -1.1% -6.1% 8.3% -
3/8/06 …a sideways market held hostage by the Fed and the bond market… 1.9% 2.4% -1.1% 7.8% +
3/1/06 …remain mostly invested, raise some cash from trading profits and use every nasty correction as a buying opportunity. -1.0% 0.7% -2.4% 8.1% -
2/22/06 …it is time to come out of cash and get into stocks. -0.1% 0.7% -2.4% 8.2% -
2/8/06 If your stocks have no real damage, leave ‘em alone. 1.1% 1.3% 4.7% 14.1% +
1/18/06 …you can make money in the short term simply buying these dips at key support. -1.0% 0.9% 2.3% 11.7% -
1/11/06 This rally looks to have long, luxurious legs… -0.7% -2.1% -0.6% 10.5% -
1/4/06 …we break the neck of the trading range top between Jan. 15 and Jan. 20. 1.6% -0.7% 2.5% 10.9% -
12/7/05 If we do break out in the last week or so, watch out. You should expect to see a VERY sharp round of profit taking in the first week or two of 2006 to convert paper profits into cash. 1.2% 2.6% 1.2% 12.4% -
11/23/05 …the year-end rally…IS real and has steam heading into the new year. -0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 9.6% -
10/26/05 …buy the dips. 2.0% 6.5% 6.9% 15.7% +
10/19/05 …it’s time for us to buy the dip. -0.4% 3.9% 7.5% 15.2% +
10/12/05 …we will remain on the battlefield and slog it out. But cash should be built in case we get that glorious capitulation meltdown… 1.5% 4.5% 9.9% 16.3% -
10/5/05 …fear is not yet strong enough to make a bottom here… -1.6% 2.0% 6.4% 12.9% +
9/7/05 …we have at least a 5% rally left in the overall market. -0.7% -3.6% 2.1% 5.1% -
8/24/05 Short term the market is still stuck… 0.9% 0.5% 3.7% 7.6% +
7/27/05 Get ready for the low-volume August blahs. 0.7% -2.0% -3.0% 3.2% +
7/20/05 …we are back to an end-of-the-year rally celebrating the end of short-term rate hikes — i.e., we are still in a “buy the big dips” market. 0.1% -1.3% -3.7% 2.1% +
7/13/05 The time to place your bets is now, not later. 1.0% 1.2% -2.9% 0.9% -
6/29/05 …the ingredients are here for the year-end rally that gets hedge funds and money managers into the black for the year. -0.2% 2.9% 1.3% 6.7% +
6/22/05 …we will be getting more aggressive with our equity investments going into the July-to-December 2005 time period. -1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 3.0% -
6/1/05 …you should expect the bull market (i.e., higher highs and higher lows for the major averages) to rise… -0.6% -0.9% 0.8% 5.2% -
5/25/05 …stocks continue to be 20% or so undervalued… 1.2% 0.1% 2.3% 5.9% -
5/18/05 …this latest correction looks dead… 0.4% 2.6% 2.8% 6.5% +
5/4/05 Odds are heavy we’ll break through. -0.4% 1.7% 5.8% 12.7% +
4/27/05 Is this a mid-cycle correction or a transition to a bear market? This flogging in the market walks like a correction, talks like a correction and smells like a correction. 1.7% 3.6% 6.5% 12.9% +
4/20/05 We should expect to see the sell-off lows touched again here, and with a little extra for good measure. 1.7% 4.7% 8.1% 15.0% -
3/2/05 …we will be in our “I’m in/I’m out” trading range for a while longer. -0.3% -3.1% -1.5% 5.6% -
2/23/05 The Groundhog Day trading range market (10% up and down) is back with us. 1.6% -1.6% 0.3% 8.7% +
2/16/05 The market correction is over. -0.8% -1.7% -3.0% 6.0% -
2/2/05 Now we have the bottom we needed. …it’s full speed ahead for stocks. -0.1% 2.4% -2.7% 6.0% -
1/26/05 This bottom was so classic my guess that is we will also need to test it one or more times before it sticks. 1.6% 3.2% -1.9% 9.4% -
1/19/05 …you still have some time to make sure your money is working BEFORE the pessimism reverts to optimism. -0.9% 1.4% -2.7% 6.7% -
1/5/05 …a very fertile environment for a sharp correction. 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 9.0% -
12/22/04 …more new highs are the most likely outcome to this unstoppable bull. 0.3% -3.8% -3.1% 4.9% +
12/15/04 Where’s the market headed next year? Up. 0.3% -1.8% -1.5% 5.1% -
12/1/04 Next stop: 11,000 Dow, 1,200 S&P 500 and 2,300 Nasdaq. -0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 6.2% +
11/24/04 …take any weakness that results from a short-term technical condition as an opportunity to commit more cash since this market shows every sign of resuming the upward trend. 0.7% 2.0% 1.6% 6.4% +
11/17/04 The train is leaving the station, but you still have some time to catch a ride before it’s gone. 0.0% 1.0% 2.4% 5.6% +
11/10/04 …the market needs to digest its gains further before starting the next leg up. 1.6% 2.2% 2.5% 6.2% -
11/3/04 BUY! …stay long American stocks. 1.7% 4.2% 4.4% 6.7% +
10/27/04 …that is ALL the negativity we need to fuel the market for a 100-point rally on the S&P 500 into the year-end. 3.3% 7.5% 6.3% 8.8% +
10/20/04 I’d say it’s fair to say the odds of the rally are…90%. 2.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.9% +
9/22/04 …we want to OWN stocks into the reversal of the “rough patch” of spring and summer 2004. …All the ingredients are in place for a BIG November-to-April rally… 0.1% -0.6% 7.3% 9.1% +
9/15/04 …now we need to finish the third leg of the bull market correction… -0.6% -1.5% 7.0% 10.5% +
8/4/04 …weakness in oil will become strength in an oversold equity market. -2.1% 1.8% 2.9% 11.6% -
7/28/04 The overall market is sick and getting sicker…adjusting stock prices to reflect a slower rate of earnings growth. 0.3% 0.9% -0.1% 12.7% +
7/21/04 …it’s time for a market belly flop into the political conventions…we gotta go down before we go up. 0.1% -0.2% 1.8% 12.8% +
6/23/04 …be long or be wrong. -0.3% -5.1% -1.3% 4.2% -
6/9/04 I still think we get this higher range… 0.1% -1.5% -1.3% 6.1% -
5/26/04 The Bottom Is In 0.2% 1.7% -0.9% 6.9% -
5/19/04 …market stimulants are doable and on their way over the next 120 to 160 days. 2.4% 3.8% 0.6% 9.7% -
5/12/04 …we still don’t have enough fear in the market… -0.8% 2.6% -2.0% 6.2% +
4/28/04 The whole market is probably rangebound until we get more clarity on Bush, Iraq, China, inflation, interest rates, etc. -0.1% -0.1% -2.4% 3.5% +
4/7/04 This…should be a great week to buy some great growth stocks at discount prices. …the forecast for an end of the correction by April 15 still looks right. -1.0% -3.7% -2.8% 4.1% -
3/31/04 The market is gearing up for its next run up, and there is another decade of wealth to be tucked away over the next 12-18 months. …You’ve got about two to three weeks to prepare. 1.3% -1.7% 1.3% 4.9% -
3/24/04 PUT CASH to work near the market bottom here… 3.2% 4.5% 4.8% 6.8% +
3/17/04 …a bottom is here… -2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 5.3% -
2/25/04 The Dow and S&P are shaping up for what looks to be an extended sideways movement that could last for several months. 0.6% -3.0% -4.2% 5.2% +
2/18/04 …my sanguine outlook for stocks is supported by the best market timing indicator I know… -0.7% -2.6% -5.9% 4.3% -
2/4/04 It’s tired and needs a rest. …Let ‘em come back and your profits will come. 2.8% 2.7% -0.6% 6.7% -
1/28/04 YOU should be looking at ALL your positions and TRIMMING huge winners on up days… -0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 4.7% +
1/21/04 Don’t worry about the pullback, worry about which stocks should be on your buy list. -1.7% -0.3% -2.6% 1.4% -
1/14/04 …manage your money for a rising stock market. 1.2% 1.4% -0.2% 5.8% -
1/7/04 …investors only get a few of the new bull markets in our lifetime — make sure you get the most out of this one. 0.4% 1.5% 1.9% 5.7% -
12/31/03 …it is STILL not too late to ride this wave with us. 1.8% 2.1% 1.3% 6.8% +
12/24/03 The classic “January effect” is being set-up for us… 1.3% 4.6% 1.4% 10.9% +
12/17/03 When the new year starts, and the great news…start to hit the tape — Katie bar the door. 1.6% 5.8% 4.3% 12.0% +
12/10/03 It’s time to buy great companies at a temporary discount to their real value. 1.6% 6.4% 4.5% 13.6% +
12/3/03 …news good enough to drive the markets up through the glass ceiling is coming…the good economic data headed toward the tape is the equivalent of a stampede. -0.5% 5.4% 8.5% 10.6% +
11/26/03 Go to the smaller-cap revolutionary industries during this latest expansion phase of economic cycle and you will find gold there. 1.1% 4.8% 8.2% 12.6% +
11/19/03 …we’re close to rally mode but not there yet…there is still a lot of money to be made owning the RIGHT kind of stocks. 1.5% 4.4% 9.8% 12.9% +
11/12//03 …we should get a short-term rally going toward the end of the week. -1.5% 1.5% 8.8% 11.0% -
11/5/03 …the evidence still points to the upside… 0.6% 0.9% 7.3% 10.7% +
10/29/03 …the bears have it wrong, wrong and wrong. 0.4% 1.0% 8.2% 7.9% +
10/22/03 Put together your shopping list of growth, growth with dividend and high-income investments, and wait for them to come into your buying range. …those waiting for the recovery to poop out will be sorely disappointed. 1.7% 0.3% 11.0% 7.8% +
10/15/03 If you do NOT have a majority of your investable assets in investments that prosper during the rapid-growth expansion phase of a new business cycle, you will miss a decade of wealth-building opportunities from now into the end of 2004. …pullbacks on “profit taking days” MUST be bought. -1.6% 1.1% 8.0% 5.4% +
10/8/03 …there is significant wealth to be made over the next six to 12 months… 1.3% 2.3% 9.0% 8.5% +
10/1/03 Not a lot of downside here. …own stocks going into the good news of Q3 and better news of Q4. 1.5% 2.8% 9.0% 11.4% +
9/24/03 …the bull is still very much in charge both in the short and long term…expect this period to test your patience with stocks you own up 5% one week and then down 5% the next. 0.9% 2.4% 8.3% 10.0% +
9/17/03 …it is clearly time to be bullish. Load the boat. -1.6% 2.3% 4.1% 10.1% +
9/10/03 This is the pause that refreshes before the heavy artillery of economic and earnings numbers start… 1.5% 2.8% 5.8% 11.6% +
9/3/03 This counter-intuitive run has farther to go. …The U.S. economy is ready for lift-off. -1.5% -0.6% 4.3% 9.3% -
8/20/03 …we are still buying the dips… -0.4% 3.6% 4.3% 9.6% +
8/13/03 …a mild summer correction/digestion period is playing out. For the intermediate term, there continues to be a much stronger case for owning economically sensitive and high-dividend paying stocks vs. bonds over the next six to 12 months… 1.7% 3.5% 6.4% 9.9% +
8/6/03 …wait for your favorite growth stocks to come back to support before you add or build positions. 1.8% 5.6% 9.5% 11.6% -
7/30/03 …the market [will] finish out the year on a strong note. -2.1% 1.6% 4.4% 11.4% +
7/23/03 …expect this summer market to continue to tread water… -0.1% 1.5% 5.7% 10.7% -
7/16/03 …let the fundamentals catch up with stock prices and build a base…this process that will bring the overall market higher after this rest. -0.6% -0.4% 5.2% 11.5% +
7/9/03 …own stocks over bonds…jump on the cyclical economic and bull runs, and keep one finger on the sell trigger… -0.8% -2.8% 3.2% 11.3% -
7/2/03 Buy… -0.5% -1.4% 0.2% 12.5% -
6/25/03 After the 4th of July, we’re looking for the averages to…pullback… Get on the train, baby, — ‘cuz it is pulling away fast. 1.9% 2.4% 5.5% 16.5% +
6/18/03 …buying the best growth stocks on…dip days is the best wealth-building plan I know at the beginning of the expansion phase of a new business cycle. -3.4% -1.7% 1.9% 12.3% -
6/11/03 …you need to get on this train… 1.3% 0.1% 2.6% 13.5% +
6/4/03 …we go till July before the animal spirits of this bull run out of gas…it is not too late for you to get in on this new bull market… 1.1% -0.1% 3.6% 15.6% +
5/28/03 …this remains VERY MUCH a buy the dip market… 3.5% 3.4% 4.2% 17.6% +
5/21/03 …we HAVE to give the benefit of the doubt to the 2004 recovery at least until the first quarter next year. 2.8% 7.8% 8.5% 18.6% +
5/14/03 …buy the dips. -1.7% 5.3% 5.4% 15.4% +
5/7/03 …buy the dips. This rally may last for a few months or a few years… The time for fear is over. 1.0% 6.3% 3.9% 16.9% +
4/30/03 …the 2004 economy is the kind that you want to get ahead of with your growth stock purchases. 1.4% 5.1% 7.9% 21.9% +
4/23/03 If you are long stocks, ride the wave…buy the dips. It looks as if we have ourselves a secular bear market rally with legs. -0.2% 1.4% 7.5% 23.6% +
4/16/03 Betting your life savings on an economic miracle of growth in the face of all the excesses left in our ever-resilient system is asking a lot from the miracle providers. 3.6% 7.3% 13.0% 27.1% -
4/9/03 …NOTHING has changed in the secular post-bubble bear market…understand…the new earnings and anti-growth bombs set to hit the economy over the next 12-18 months. 1.6% 7.8% 15.7% 30.4% -
3/26/03 …all the wishful thinking in the world will not be enough to survive the earnings train wreck that is steaming toward the 30 P/E valuations of the S&P 500–i.e. the overall stock market. 1.3% 3.3% 13.0% 29.0% -
3/19/03 Thus buying-and-holding most equities at this point is a de facto bet on an economic miracle post-Iraq. Which is a bet that an investment mercenary who wants to live throughout the entire secular bear market will not make–the risk is much higher than the reward. -0.5% 2.2% 15.7% 25.3% -
3/12/03 I am in 100% cash in my trading account waiting for…bombs away. 8.7% 8.4% 22.5% 37.3% -
3/5/03 Continuing to invest like a recovery is “just around the corner” is…hazardous to your wealth. -3.1% 5.6% 17.1% 38.2% -
2/12/03 The market is sick and I have only one word for anyone who is more than 20% allocated to stocks here: HEDGE! 2.2% 1.8% 15.1% 41.3% -
1/22/03 …hold most of your investment capital within the safety of the “safe harbor” of high-income securities until the inevitable showdown with Iraq plays out. -1.6% -3.4% 3.8% 31.5% +
1/15/03 We’ll see Dow 9,000 BEFORE the bombs drop in Baghdad, THEN we’ll see the “flight to quality” sell-off of 5%-10% on the Dow. Keep your cash close and be ready to buy great stocks opportunistically… -3.4% -9.1% -3.0% 24.0% -
1/8/03 …expect trading pullbacks…this market is rangebound until the Iraq question is settled. 0.9% -8.8% -3.5% 23.9% -
12/23/02 …what we have here is a go-nowhere market until bombs fly over Baghdad or earnings season hits… -2.0% -4.0% -2.5% 22.1% -
12/18/02 ALL bear market rallies are guilty until proven innocent. -0.2% -0.4% -1.7% 22.6% +
12/4/02 Don’t chase…stocks but do buy stocks on healthy pullbacks that will lead the real bull market next year. -1.4% 1.2% -10.4% 16.5% +
11/27/02 …this move off the bottom is looking more and more like the real deal. -3.4% -6.3% -10.4% 13.6% -
11/20/02 …overall market indexes can…hold its 50-day moving average for a more sustainable, less V-shaped move higher post-Iraq. 2.7% -2.0% -7.2% 15.1% -
11/13/02 Plan on a 5%-10% invasion sell off in stocks. And plan on buying…WHEN the invasion occurs… 3.6% 0.8% -7.4% 18.3% +
10/30/02 I would NOT be short stocks into this period…we are in a bear market that has a very good chance of lasting for more than a just a while longer. …Ride the sharp, inevitable bear market rallies and be ready to sell if the rally gets ahead of economic fundamentals 3.7% 5.1% -5.2% 18.9% +
10/9/02 Major support for the market is down at Dow 7,000, 700 for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 1,000. …this market looks as though we are going to see the indexes test the latter set of numbers over the next week or so followed by a very tradable snapback rally. 10.7% 16.2% 17.1% 34.6% -
10/2/02 …indexes are NOT where you will make money in stocks over the next few years. -6.2% 7.0% 6.3% 24.9% -
9/18/02 …the odds of another 20% July-like crash have risen to over 50%. -3.4% 1.1% 4.7% 17.6% +
9/4/02 …we are in a bear market until proven otherwise. 1.8% -8.3% 4.6% 15.5% +
8/7/02 Get your list of eight to 10 undervalued…stocks together and be patient. 4.9% 2.0% 3.6% 11.8% -
7/31/02 …most major markets…established their bottom ranges last Wednesday morning (July 24)… -3.8% 0.7% -2.3% 7.8% +
7/24/02 Irrefutably, we are closing in on the four tipping points that could take us to Dow 6,000, Nasdaq 900 and 600 on the S&P 500 very quickly. 8.1% 14.1% 6.7% 18.2% -
7/17/02 There will be a time to be brave and…greedy when others are fearful — but that time AIN’T now… -6.9% 2.7% -7.1% 8.0% +
7/10/02 …our Dow 7,980, Nasdaq 1,250 and S&P 500 750 targets are coming up fast in the investment windshield. …The time is coming to be “greedy when others are fearful.” But it AIN’T here yet… -1.6% -1.6% -14.7% 9.1% +
6/26/02 This brings us to a 7,800-8,000 Dow, a 750-ish S&P 500 and a Nasdaq Composite of 1,000-1,050 after blowing through its fair value at 1,200-1,250. -2.0% -12.4% -15.8% 0.1% +
6/19/02 …many of yesteryears leaders…are STILL overvalued based on their NORMALIZED earnings power in a NON-bubble economy. -4.6% -16.9% -14.4% -3.8% +
6/6/02 “Is it a bottom, yet?” … NOT A CHANCE. -1.9% -5.1% -13.2% -4.3% +
5/29/02 There are more negative surprises…to come… -1.7% -7.2% -11.2% -9.4% +
5/15/02 We have a good economy. The problem is many, many stocks are priced like we have a great economy. -0.5% -7.7% -19.0% -15.6% +
5/1/02 …the overall indexes HAVE to go lower… 0.2% -1.8% -16.9% -14.7% +
4/24/02 …we’re just going nowhere–there is not enough cash coming in to fuel a sustainable rally. Period. -0.6% 0.4% -27.0% -16.3% +
4/17/02 …get used to a longer, grinding trading market. -2.9% -2.5% -20.0% -20.8% -
4/10/02 …get out of your beloved tech stocks before they go from teen-ager to a hat-size pricing. -0.4% -5.1% -15.7% -23.2% +
4/3/02 Bull markets shrug off bad news…this market ain’t shrugging off bad news, and don’t expect it to for a while. 0.5% -3.6% -13.9% -21.9% +
3/20/02 Use weakness at the bottom of the trading range of your favorite stocks to buy/add positions, and sell/hedge your profits at the top of trading ranges… -0.6% -2.3% -10.0% -25.0% -
2/20/02 We have lowered our “buy under” prices…to reflect a 10%-20% downside… 1.1% 5.1% -0.6% -24.2% -
2/6/02 …this “trust no one” correction still has legs… 3.2% 7.5% -3.1% -22.8% -
1/23/02 …we have another level lower to go before this “trust me” correction is over. -1.3% -3.4% -2.4% -24.9% +
1/16/02 …use your sell stops, book profits if your profitable positions break their technical support levels… 0.4% -2.1% -0.1% -21.3% +
1/9/02 …get in the game NOW… -2.4% -5.1% -2.1% -19.8% -
12/26/01 Money managers are going to try to squeeze as much performance as they can into this crappy year, and short sellers will be buying stock here to cover their positions… 1.4% -1.4% -0.4% -23.5% +
12/19/01 …the only choice you have is to be long stocks. 0.7% -2.6% 0.4% -21.9% -
12/12/01 Slowly but surely, investors will come to the conclusion that 2% money market returns…is no way to save for retirement. 1.1% 0.1% 1.4% -19.9% -
12/5/01 …continue to believe in the uptrend for a while. -2.8% -0.5% -1.1% -23.8% -
11/21/01 …NEW BULL MARKET… 0.3% 0.7% -4.2% -18.0% -
11/14/01 When we get the inevitable 10%-20% consolidation period, we’ll have better prices to build new positions/add to our favorite leaders of the 2002 Victory Bull Market.  …use these sell-offs as buying opportunities. -0.4% -1.6% -2.2% -21.1% -
11/7/01 We need one good breather…to set-up the upward moves. I hope you are fully invested by the time it comes. 2.3% 3.8% -3.2% -21.5% -
10/31/01 We will have a trading range for months… 5.3% 7.5% 6.6% -14.3% -
9/26/01 Markets bottom when stocks are relatively cheap, traders are afraid to be long and sellers have already sold. In short, we’re getting closer but we ain’t there yet. 6.5% 9.2% 13.7% -19.0% -
9/19/01 All of this leads realistic investors to an unambiguous direction for the near-term values of most equities: down. Most stocks…are overvalued by 25%-50%. -0.9% 5.2% 11.6% -18.0% -
8/29/01 …the overall index is, at best, going nowhere fast. And it’s ultimately headed lower. -3.7% -6.9% -1.6% -21.4% +
8/22/01 There is only one piece of fundamental or technical evidence I have seen that would support a market rally thesis, short term–lower prices. -1.4% -12.6% -0.7% -21.4% +
8/15/01 …buying stocks for the short term will mostly yield…dead money. -1.1% -16.4% -3.3% -20.1% +
8/1/01 …we still see more risk NOT owning stocks riding the next-generation and ballast-growth ChangeWaves. -2.7% -7.1% -10.6% -25.3% -
7/25/01 …there is NO locomotive in sight…to pull the overall market out of trouble. 2.1% -2.4% -7.2% -27.4% +
7/11/01 …we see the trading range expanding here to the downside until the fourth quarter. The low end looks like it’s about 1,150 for the S&P 500…selling into rallies is still the best strategy… 2.3% 0.3% -7.5% -28.2% +
7/3/01 We’ll be locked into this trading range for the foreseeable future… -4.4% -1.1% -13.2% -25.4% -
6/13/01 The biggest risk to investors now is NOT owning stocks at low prices when they take off. …You will get rewarded for your courage in six months. -1.5% -2.1% -16.3% -20.3% -
6/6/01 …the market is behaving as it should coming out of a bottoming process. -2.2% -6.3% -10.8% -20.7% -
5/30/01 …strap in, because the roller coaster ride isn’t over just yet. 1.8% -1.8% -5.5% -17.7% +
5/23/01 …the Dow should hold 11,000 while the Nasdaq should hold 2,200. -2.6% -4.9% -10.2% -19.3% -
5/16/01 …there is more risk to being in cash than being long in stocks. You can’t afford to miss the likely rally. 0.3% -5.5% -7.6% -15.7% -
5/9/01 …use a May 15 pullback to make your next leg into the market. 2.3% 0.8% -4.1% -11.9% -
5/2/01 If our thesis is correct and we have turned the downward bear market corner in April, then you have one of the great buying opportunities in 5-10 years in front of you. -0.9% -0.5% -4.4% -16.8% -
4/25/01 The bear market is not over yet, but we are much closer to a bottom than most bears think. 3.1% 5.2% -4.6% -12.6% -
4/18/01 DO NOT SIT this out on the sidelines. …today’s action makes the first quarter 2002 earnings recovery the MOST plausible possibility. That makes it riskier to own bonds than stocks. -0.8% 4.1% -1.9% -13.1% -
4/4/01 When the mega-cap techs start their confessions, the Nasdaq will look like the USS Hornet aircraft carrier facing kamikaze attacks… 5.7% 14.8% 11.9% -0.1% -
3/28/01 The best way to survive the Blitz is hiding in your “bomb shelter” made from ballast growth and income stocks. -4.3% 8.7% 5.5% -2.4% +
3/21/01 If you continue to be a techoholic, odds are your addiction is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. 2.8% 10.8% 8.1% 2.2% -
3/14/01 …defensive stuff like high-yield bond funds may very well beat ALL stocks this year … again. -3.8% 1.4% 7.6% -1.5% +
3/7/01 We are in a “sell into the Nasdaq rallies” mode for the foreseeable future. -7.5% -8.8% 1.7% -7.6% +
2/28/01 Expect 2,000. 1.8% -7.4% 2.3% -6.1% +
2/21/01 There will be a time when we can buy the great tech growth companies at prices under their no-brainer earnings growth rates. But it ain’t yet… -1.2% -11.0% 4.6% -9.8% +
2/14/01 …defend your capital with cash and low-risk, low P/E dividend-paying stocks. -4.8% -12.6% -5.1% -15.7% +
2/7/01 We are cautious here in new positions and have closed out many positions with sell-stops… -1.9% -8.0% -5.9% -17.7% +
1/31/01 The bear market is dead… -1.8% -9.7% -7.3% -19.8% -
1/24/01 …the odds are…we have killed the bear market… 0.1% -8.7% -11.3% -17.7% -
1/17/01 Long live the Techonomy. It is these industries that will lead us upward from the bottom of the business cycle sometime in May or June. 2.6% -0.2% -10.4% -14.8% -
1/10/01 …make your moves NOW on your own “A” list of growth companies. You may never see a chance like this again to get the crème-de-le-crème growth companies at these prices. 2.6% 0.1% -11.0% -14.1% -
1/3/01 …our 2001 outlook is bright. -2.5% 0.1% -17.9% -15.0% -
12/13/00 …anyone who calls a “bottom” to this market on the late November/December meltdown, assumes that ALL the bad news has been assimilated in the market short term. I think this is quite a risky bet. -7.0% -2.5% -13.7% -15.8% +
12/6/00 …we are NOWHERE near this final “throw-in-the-towel” psychology that flushes out enough of the selling to turn a bear market back to bull. 0.6% -4.1% -6.4% -16.9% +
11/29/00 This is not a bull-market correction, this is a bear market. 0.7% -1.6% -7.5% -13.7% +
11/22/00 …the market HAS to get worse before it gets better. -0.6% -1.2% -5.8% -14.6% +
11/1/00 …we are betting on a valuation floor of 3,000. -0.8% -7.5% -3.4% -21.2% -
10/25/00 …a breakthrough of 3,500 is much more likely than a breakthrough of our 3,026 intra-day bottom. 4.1% -1.7% -0.5% -20.3% -
10/18/00 …it’s still very dangerous out there for many stocks. 1.7% 2.2% 0.4% -17.7% -
10/11/00 I am very concerned that many of you are going to panic yourselves out of a historic opportunity coming in the days and weeks ahead to make a significant amount of money… -1.6% 2.6% -3.8% -21.3% -
10/4/00 …we’ve needed to feel the market leaders “thud” and hit the ground like a sack of potatoes. It’s coming. -4.9% -0.4% -6.0% -23.9% +
9/20/00 …separate shortsighted, misinformed investors from their very best stocks on big fearful sell-off days. -1.7% -4.3% -8.9% -28.3% -
9/6/00 …[use] down days to build…positions for the fall rally. -0.5% -3.8% -11.2% -26.8% -
8/23/00 Expect a strong fall season… -0.2% -3.8% -10.8% -21.7% -
8/16/00 …we are in this range for a while… 1.8% -0.9% -8.7% -20.8% +
8/2/00 Red Flag, still more risk than reward in the short term. Too early in this to be brave. 2.4% 5.5% -2.8% -16.6% -
7/26/00 Don’t panic. Just be careful in new positions and protect your recent buys from going underwater. Long-term stuff-don’t do something you’ll regret in 30 days or less. -0.9% 3.8% -3.9% -17.1% -
7/19/00 Staying put through consolidation periods is what makes us rich. Just be extra patient in putting new money to work during this normal bull market downturn…you got plenty of time. -2.0% 1.0% -7.2% -19.6% -
7/12/00 …turn any market panic sell-off into a buying opportunity… -0.7% -2.2% -6.1% -19.5% -
7/5/00 …sell-off days…are buying opportunities…we’re months away from our next regularly scheduled market meltdown. 3.2% 0.4% -0.7% -17.1% -
6/28/00 …the water is choppy but profitable. 0.1% -2.4% -1.9% -15.0% -
6/21/00 The Nasdaq correction is through… -1.6% 0.1% -1.3% -17.6% -
6/15/00 Let the stopped-clock bears and Irrational Exuberanskis sit on the sidelines while we take advantage of this next leg of the Great New Economy Bull Market. -1.8% 2.1% 0.4% -18.0% -
6/7/00 …in six months, you will have the last laugh on the “Irrational Exuberance” fraidy cats. -0.1% 0.5% 2.4% -14.7% -
5/31/00 …it’s safe to buy or add to your favorite core tech leaders at this juncture with no more than 10-20% downside… 3.6% 1.5% 6.6% -10.8% +
5/24/00 …take your original investment in the company off the table so you’re left with house money. On your speculative holdings take up to half of your profits and don’t let a winning position go negative. But don’t do anything rash like selling long-held positions in the New Economy Classics like Intel, Oracle, Dell, Cisco or Sun Microsystems. 3.6% 3.0% 7.1% -9.4% -
5/11/00 …use sell-off days on lower than average volume to dollar cost average into your favorite New Economy leaders. 2.1% 2.7% 4.6% -11.2% +
5/3/00 We are NOT out of the Nasdaq bear-market woods yet by any means. -2.3% 4.4% 1.6% -10.7% +
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