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	<title>CXO Advisory &#187; Big Ideas</title>
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		<title>The 2000s: A Market Timer&#8217;s Decade? [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/4484/big-ideas/the-2000s-a-market-timers-decade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/4484/big-ideas/the-2000s-a-market-timers-decade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2011 11:06:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Momentum Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com.php5-14.websitetestlink.com/?p=4484</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do the poor returns and high volatility of the &#8220;buy-and-hold-is-dead&#8221; U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000 represent a tailwind for market timers? In other words, is buy-and-hold effective as a benchmark for distinguishing between market timer luck and skill in recent years? To check, we measure the performances of various simple monthly market <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/4484/big-ideas/the-2000s-a-market-timers-decade/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Two Biggest Mistakes of Long-term Investors [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17655/big-ideas/two-biggest-mistakes-of-long-term-investors/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17655/big-ideas/two-biggest-mistakes-of-long-term-investors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Allocation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=17655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How can long-term investors maximize their edge of strategic patience? In their November 2011 paper entitled &#8220;Investing for the Long Run&#8221;, Andrew Ang and Knut Kjaer offer advice on successful long-term investing (such as by pension funds).  They define a long-term investor as one having no material short-term liabilities or liquidity demands. Using the California Public Employee&#8217;s Retirement System and other large institutions as examples, <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17655/big-ideas/two-biggest-mistakes-of-long-term-investors/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Mean Reversion of Stock Markets [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17250/big-ideas/mean-reversion-of-stock-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17250/big-ideas/mean-reversion-of-stock-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Oct 2011 10:08:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=17250</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How long does it take stock markets to revert to their long-run means? In their April 2010 paper entitled &#8220;Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20 th Century&#8221;, Laura Spierdijk, Jacob Bikker and Pieter van den Hoek analyze mean reversion in 17 developed countries (Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/17250/big-ideas/mean-reversion-of-stock-markets/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
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		<title>Bull, Bear, Wolf, Sheep&#8230;? [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16476/big-ideas/bull-bear-wolf-sheep/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16476/big-ideas/bull-bear-wolf-sheep/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:13:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=16476</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The conventional binary animal metaphor for markets is bull (good returns, low volatility) and bear (poor returns, high volatility). Does rigorous analysis of empirical evidence support belief in (just) two market states? In their September 2011 paper entitled &#8220;The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identiﬁcation and Economic Value&#8221;, Mathieu Gatumel and Florian Ielpo apply a regime-switching model and Monte <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16476/big-ideas/bull-bear-wolf-sheep/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Return-based Analysis of Demographics as Stock Market Predictor [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15970/big-ideas/return-based-analysis-of-demographics-as-stock-market-predictor/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15970/big-ideas/return-based-analysis-of-demographics-as-stock-market-predictor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2011 10:04:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=15970</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Analyses such as those described in &#8220;Demographic Headwind for U.S. Stock Market?&#8221; and &#8220;Classic Research: Demography and the Stock Market&#8221; assess the impact of demographic changes on the stock market by focusing on market valuation as measured by price-earnings ratio (P/E). What story would a more direct analysis of demographics and stock market returns tell? <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15970/big-ideas/return-based-analysis-of-demographics-as-stock-market-predictor/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Demographic Headwind for U.S. Stock Market?</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15956/big-ideas/demographic-headwind-for-u-s-stock-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15956/big-ideas/demographic-headwind-for-u-s-stock-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 10:15:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=15956</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Will disinvestment of the baby boom generation retard U.S. equities? In their August 2011 letter entitled &#8220;Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?&#8221;, flagged by a reader, Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel revisit the relationship between U.S. age demographics and U.S. equity valuation as indicated by the lagged price-earnings ratio (P/E). They calculate P/E based <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15956/big-ideas/demographic-headwind-for-u-s-stock-market/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Effects and Prediction of Extreme Returns [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16002/big-ideas/effects-and-prediction-of-extreme-returns/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16002/big-ideas/effects-and-prediction-of-extreme-returns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:07:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technical Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=16002</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are financial market returns from extreme outlier days mostly good or bad for investors? Is the occurrence of such days usefully predictable? In his August 2011 paper entitled &#8220;Where the Black Swans Hide &#38; The 10 Best Days Myth&#8221;, Mebane Faber examines the effects and predictability of daily market return outliers. Using daily returns for the broad <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16002/big-ideas/effects-and-prediction-of-extreme-returns/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/16002/big-ideas/effects-and-prediction-of-extreme-returns/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Technical Trend-following: Fighting the Last War? [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15929/big-ideas/technical-trend-following-fighting-the-last-war/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15929/big-ideas/technical-trend-following-fighting-the-last-war/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Aug 2011 16:14:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technical Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=15929</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When do simple moving averages (SMA) serve as useful trading rules? Do they exploit some hidden pattern in asset price behavior? In their July 2011 paper entitled &#8220;The Trend is not Your Friend! Why Empirical Timing Success is Determined by the Underlying’s Price Characteristics and Market Efficiency is Irrelevant &#8220;, flagged by a subscriber, Peter <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15929/big-ideas/technical-trend-following-fighting-the-last-war/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15929/big-ideas/technical-trend-following-fighting-the-last-war/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Overview of Financial Market Regime Change [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15181/big-ideas/overview-of-financial-market-regime-change/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15181/big-ideas/overview-of-financial-market-regime-change/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jul 2011 10:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=15181</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Financial markets sometimes switch states (regimes), with key investment decision statistics (such as average return and volatility of returns) shifting dramatically for extended intervals. A simple example of financial market regimes is the designation of bull and bear stock market states, estimated (for example) by a broad index being above or below its long-interval simple <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15181/big-ideas/overview-of-financial-market-regime-change/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15181/big-ideas/overview-of-financial-market-regime-change/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Model What You Trade? [PREMIUM]</title>
		<link>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14903/big-ideas/model-what-you-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14903/big-ideas/model-what-you-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 16:11:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve LeCompte</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big Ideas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?p=14903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do strategies modeled using major indexes translate cleanly to the exchange-traded funds (ETF) that track them? ETF returns may deviate from underlying index levels because: (1) ETFs incorporate trading frictions from rebalancing and management fees; (2) ETF composition may differ slightly from that of the underlying index due to trading More... You May Also Enjoy... <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/14903/big-ideas/model-what-you-trade/"><strong>More...</strong></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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