Can investors/speculators use gold as a hedge for equities or as a general safe haven? Does it hedge against inflation? These blog entries relate to gold as an asset class.

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Gold a Consistent Dynamic Inflation Hedge?

Is gold a consistent hedge against inflation? In their October 2015 preliminary paper entitled “Is Gold a Hedge Against Inflation? A Wavelet Time-Frequency Perspective”, Thomas Conlon, Brian Lucey and Gazi Salah Uddin examine the inflation-hedging properties of gold over an extended period at different measurement frequencies (investment horizons) in four economies (U.S., UK, Switzerland and Japan). They consider both realized and unexpected inflation. They also test the inflation-hedging ability of gold futures and gold stocks. Using monthly consumer price indexes (not seasonally adjusted) for the four countries and monthly returns for spot gold (bullion) in the four associated currencies since January 1968, monthly survey-based U.S. inflation expectations since January 1978, and monthly returns on the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) as a proxy for gold stocks since January 1984, all through December 2014, they find that: Keep Reading


How are performances of physically backed gold and gold miner exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar and different? To investigate we consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Using weekly returns for these assets, and for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), over the available sample period of May 2006 through September 2015 (limited by GDX), we find that: Keep Reading

Best Bear Market Asset Class?

A subscriber asked which asset (short stocks, cash, bonds by subclass) is best to hold during equity bear markets, defined simply as intervals when SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) is below its 10-month simple moving average (SMA10). To investigate, we test the following nine alternatives, five of which are bond-like mutual funds and two of which are gold-related:

Short SPY
Cash, with return estimated as the yield on 13-week U.S. Treasury bills (T-bill)
Vanguard GNMA Securities (VFIIX)
T. Rowe Price International Bonds (RPIBX)
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Bonds (VUSTX)
Fidelity Convertible Securities (FCVSX)
T. Rowe Price High-Yield Bonds (PRHYX)
Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX)
Spot Gold

Specifically, we compare monthly return statistics, cumulative performances and maximum drawdowns of these nine alternatives for months during which SPY is below its SMA10. Using monthly T-bill yield and monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for the above assets during January 1993 (as limited by SPY) through August 2015, we find that: Keep Reading

High-Frequency Technical Trading of Gold and Silver?

Does simple technical analysis based on moving averages work on high-frequency spot gold and silver trading? In their August 2015 paper entitled “Does Technical Analysis Beat the Market? – Evidence from High Frequency Trading in Gold and Silver”, Andrew Urquhart, Jonathan Batten, Brian Lucey, Frank McGroarty and Maurice Peat examine the profitability of 5-minute moving average technical analysis in the gold and silver spot markets. They consider simple moving average (SMA), exponential moving average (EMA) and weighted moving average (WMA) crossing rules. These rules buy (sell) when a fast moving average crosses above (below) a slow moving average. They start with four commonly used parameter settings, all using a fast moving average of one interval paired with a slow moving average of 50, 100, 150 or 200 intervals [(1-50), (1-100), (1-150) or (1-200)]. They then test all combinations of a fast moving average ranging from 1 to 49 intervals and a slow moving average ranging from 50 to 500 intervals, generating a total of 66,297 distinct rules. To compensate for data snooping bias, they specify in-sample and out-of-sample subperiods and test whether the most successful in-sample rules work out-of-sample. They also use bootstrapping as an additional robustness test. Using 5-minute spot gold and silver prices during January 2008 through mid-September 2014, they find that: Keep Reading

Inflation-based Projection of the Price of Gold

Where is the price of gold headed? In their August 2015 paper entitled “The Golden Constant”, Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey apply a “golden constant” hypothesis (inflation is the principal driver of the price of gold) to project the future price of gold. Specifically, they explore implications of mean reversion of the real price of gold. Using the monthly relationship between gold price in U.S. dollars and U.S. inflation during 1975 through the first half of 2015, they find that: Keep Reading

DJIA-Gold Ratio as a Stock Market Indicator

A reader requested a test of the following hypothesis from the article “Gold’s Bluff – Is a 30 Percent Drop Next?”: “Ironically, gold is more than just a hedge against market turmoil. Gold is actually one of the most accurate indicators of the stock market’s long-term direction. The Dow Jones measured in gold is a forward looking indicator.” To test this assertion, we examine relationships between the spot price of gold and the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Using monthly data for the spot price of gold in dollars per ounce and DJIA over the period January 1971 through July 2015 (535 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Research on Gold as an Investment

What is the scope of research on gold as an investment? In their July 2015 paper entitled “The Financial Economics of Gold – A Survey”, Fergal O’Connor, Brian Lucey, Jonathan Batten and Dirk Baur review the body of formal research on gold from the perspective of an investor. They start with the following background topics: how gold markets operate; physical gold demand and supply; and, gold mine economics. They then address gold as an investment as follows: portfolio diversification with gold; gold as a safe haven; gold in comparison to other precious metals; relationships between gold and currencies; mining stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETF) as gold substitutes; interaction of gold and oil; gold market efficiency; gold price bubbles, interactions of gold with inflation and interest rates; and, behavioral aspects of gold investing. They note consistencies and inconsistencies of research findings within topics. In reviewing this body of research, they note that: Keep Reading

Lumber-Gold Interaction as Stocks and Bonds Indicator

Does the interaction of paradigmatic indicators of optimism (lumber demand) and pessimism (gold demand) tell investors when to take risk and when to avoid risk? In their May 2015 paper entitled “Lumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold: Offense and Defense in Active Portfolio Management”, Charles Bilello and Michael Gayed examine the recent relative performance of lumber (a proxy for economic activity via construction) and gold (a safe haven) as an indicator of future stock market and bond market performance. Specifically, if lumber futures outperform (underperform) spot gold over the prior 13 weeks, they go on offense (defense) the next week. They test this strategy on combinations of seven indexes comprising a spectrum of risk (listed lowest to highest): BofA Merrill Lynch 5-7 Year Treasury Index (Treasuries); CBOE S&P 500 Buy-Write Index (BuyWrite); S&P 500 Low Volatility Index (Low Volatility); S&P 500 Index (SP500); Russell 2000 Index (R2000); Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index (Cyclicals); and, S&P 500 High Beta Index (High Beta). Using weekly nearest futures contract prices for random length lumber, weekly spot gold prices and weekly total returns for the seven test indexes during November 1986 (November 1990 for Low Volatility and High Beta) through January 2015, they find that: Keep Reading

Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate, U.S. Stocks and Gold

Do changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate reliably interact with the U.S. stock market and gold? For example, do declines in the dollar relative to the euro indicate increases in the dollar value of hard assets? Are the interactions coincident or exploitably predictive? To investigate, we relate changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate to returns for U.S. stock indexes and spot gold. Using end-of-month and end-of-week values of the dollar-euro exchange rate, levels of the S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000 Index and spot prices for gold during January 1999 (limited by the exchange rate series) through February 2015, we find that: Keep Reading

Interplay of the Dollar, Gold and Oil

What is the interplay among investable proxies for the U.S. dollar, gold and crude oil? Do changes in the value of the dollar lead those in hard assets? To investigate, we relate the return series of three exchange-traded funds: (1) the futures-based PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP); (2) the spot-based SPDR Gold Shares (GLD); and, (3) the spot-based United States Oil (USO). Using monthly, weekly and daily prices for these funds during March 2007 (limited by inception of UUP) through November 2014 (93 months), we find that: Keep Reading

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ETF Momentum Signal
for November 2015 (Final)

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Gross Compound Annual Growth Rates
(Since August 2006)
Top 1 ETF Top 2 ETFs
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Top 3 ETFs SPY
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ETF Value Signal
for November 2015 (Final)





The asset with the highest allocation is the holding of the Best Value strategy.
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