Guru Grades

Gary D. Halbert Forecasts and Trends (Last Updated 2/26/10)

As suggested by reader Henry Bee of Vancouver, Canada, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts from the monthly commentaries of Gary D. Halbert, available since January 2002. Because these commentaries stop with May 2007, we include also market-oriented editions of his weekly commentaries since June 2007. Gary Halbert is President and CEO of ProFutures, Inc., which has a "mission of matching client needs with suitable professional money managers." His main tool for analyzing financial markets for much of the period reviewed was research/opinion from BCA Research, which he then described as "the most accurate source for major economic trends that I have read over the last 25 years." However, he no longer cites their forecasts. The chart below extracts highlights from his commentaries on the direction of the overall stock market and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 21, 63, 126 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:

• Gary Halbert strongly believes that investors need dispassionate professionals to manage their money via market timing. ("Most investors don't know when to get out, or if they do, it's often at the bottom.")
• For the period during which he frequently quotes BCA Research, he does so approvingly. We therefore assume that his view during that time is the same as that of BCA Research unless he explicitly indicates otherwise.
• To evaluate Mr. Halbert's forecasts, we focus on market behavior one to three months after commentaries, unless he specifies some other forecast horizon.
• We skipped a few commentaries in which we could find no stock market forecast.
• Mr. Halbert sometimes relates multi-faceted forecasts which prove to have both correct and incorrect components. In a few cases, we evaluate a forecast with "0" and grade him both right and wrong.
• Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about his forecasts for overall stock market direction, Gary Halbert has been right 47% of the time, about average. His forecast sample size is moderate, as is our confidence in this conclusion.

In summary, Gary Halbert's stock market forecasting sources and methods result in an about average accuracy. Confidence in this conclusion is moderate.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.