Guru Grades
Jim Jubak on the Big Picture (Last Updated 8/9/08)
We evaluate here the commentary in "Jubak's Journal" at MSN Money
since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN
Money, with a background in journalism. The chart below extracts those highlights
from his commentary most indicative of the direction of the overall stock market
and shows the performance of the S&P
500 index over the 5, 21, 63 and 254 trading days after the publication
date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate
those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:
- Jim Jubak recommends specific stock buys and sells more than overall market
ins and outs. In his own words: "When the big picture is confusing, it
pays to focus on the details." The commentary summaries below focus on
those times that he does offer observations about overall market direction.
- With respect to market timing, Mr. Jubak appears to respond to market trends
like a typical investor: wondering when the free fall would end during 2001-2002;
miserable and pessimistic at the bottom at the end of 2002; and, initially
withholding belief in the turnaround of 2003.
- He has been generally pessimistic about the U.S. economy, with dire predictions
regarding deficits, inflation and the dollar (with interest therefore in foreign
stocks).
- In two cases involving a complex outlook which proved to have both correct
and incorrect components, we evaluate the forecasts with "0" and
grade him both right and wrong.
- Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about his
sometimes equivocal forecasts or implications for overall stock market direction,
Jim Jubak has been right 41% of the time, well below average. Sample
size is moderate, as is our confidence in this result.
- By his own measurements, Jim Jubak's stock-picking results have been very
good (we have not validated).
In summary, Jim Jubak's record of forecasting the overall U.S. stock market
is well below average. Confidence in this conclusion is moderate.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot
of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock
market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual
market pundits and gurus.
