Guru Grades
Jim Jubak on the Big Picture (Last Updated 2/26/10)
We evaluate here the commentary in "Jubak's Journal" at MSN Money since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN Money, with a background in journalism. The chart below extracts those highlights from his commentary most indicative of the direction of the overall stock market and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 5, 21, 63 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:
- Jim Jubak recommends specific stock buys and sells more than overall market ins and outs. In his own words: "When the big picture is confusing, it pays to focus on the details." The commentary summaries below focus on those times that he does offer observations about overall market direction.
- He has been generally pessimistic about the U.S. economy, with dire predictions regarding deficits, inflation and the dollar (with interest therefore in foreign stocks).
- In three cases involving a complex outlook which proved to have both correct and incorrect components, we evaluate the forecasts with "0" and grade him both right and wrong.
- Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about his sometimes equivocal forecasts or implications for overall stock market direction, Jim Jubak has been right 42% of the time, which is below average. Sample size is moderate, as is our confidence in this result.
- By his own measurements, Jim Jubak's stock-picking results have been very good (we have not validated).
In summary, Jim Jubak's record of forecasting the overall U.S. stock market is below average. Confidence in this conclusion is moderate.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
