Clif Droke’s Contrarian Triangulation

Last Updated: August 26, 2010

Guru Accuracy Rating

49%

This is above average.

Current guru average is 48%

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the overall U.S. stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Clif Droke, available since late May 2003. Clif Droke uses parabolic cycles as an overlay for more specific analyses to predict market behavior, all from a contrarian perspective. He frequently gauges the “Wall of Worry.” He notes that: “Cycles should never be viewed as anything more than a rough guideline, or road map if you will, for navigating the markets…cycle theory should always be combined with a comprehensive study of market internals (i.e., technical analysis) as well as fundamental analysis, market psychology analysis, and an analysis of market liquidity.” The chart below extracts highlights from his commentaries on the direction of the overall U.S. stock market and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 5, 21, 63 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:

Clif Droke frequently examines the outlooks for real estate, gold, silver and the dollar. We do not evaluate those forecasts.
His forecasts for stocks are mostly intermediate range, which we interpret as one to three months, but he sometimes specifies shorter or longer timeframes. We test his forecasts accordingly.
Mr. Droke sometimes makes complex, multi-step forecasts which prove to have both correct and incorrect components. In a few cases, we evaluate a forecast with “0″ and grade him both right and wrong.
Clif Droke’s forecast sample is modest to moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

		S&P 500 Index
Date	Comments from: Clif Droke via Safe Haven	5-Day Return	21-Day Return	63-Day Return	254-Day Return
8/26/10	…the 4-year cycle is fixed and always bottoms around the end of the third quarter in late September/early October. …short covering could be in evidence in upcoming days. Unless the internal momentum indicators show some drastic improvement between now and early September, however, the stock market will have its work cut out as we head closer to the 4-year cycle bottom.
7/12/10	…investors will need to be on the lookout for the reappearance of extreme volatility, particularly in the months of August and September and until the 2-year cycle bottoms later this fall.	-0.7%	3.9%
6/4/10	The market, once it completely stabilizes, will be able to proceed into the critical summer months on a much sounder footing now and the dominant path for stock prices in the months ahead will most likely be higher.	2.5%	-3.5%
5/28/10	The market usually needs at least three weeks of consolidation after a steep decline before it’s ready to break out again… If the February ’07 panic is any guide (and I think it probably is), we can expect to see the SPX confirming a breakout fairly soon.	-3.6%	-4.4%			-
8/2/09	…for those investors who don’t want to miss out on the rest of this year’s recovery, it would do well to remember an old adage: newspaper is best used for wrapping fish.	0.4%	-0.5%	6.3%	12.3%	+
5/6/09	…we will likely see an even more amazing stage of the market’s recovery. Many investors are deluding themselves into thinking this was a mere “sucker’s rally” in an ongoing bear market but they will be surprised when they learn, belatedly, that the March-April rally leg was only the first portion of a continued cyclical recovery.	-3.9%	2.2%	9.4%	26.1%	+
3/18/09	…there are some very positive developments taking place right now that point the way for the next interim turnaround to begin. …a major shift in investor psychology is the key factor in putting an end to the selling pressure. It now appears we’re finally seeing that longed-for shift in psychology.	2.5%	9.5%	14.8%	46.8%	+
3/8/09	We don’t have a confirmed bottom yet, though, so until we do we have to maintain a defensive position.	11.4%	20.5%	39.0%	70.0%	-
2/17/09	…equities…will soon recover in response to the worldwide monetary stimulus efforts.	-2.0%	0.7%	11.9%	40.5%	+
1/4/09	The mini cyclical bull market now underway has the potential to last until summer… While it may not be a spectacular bull market it should nonetheless offer…respite from the previous year’s pain.	-6.2%	-10.3%	-9.2%	23.1%	-
12/28/08	Far from being a cause for despair, the current obsession with recession is a reason to rejoice. The public is now digesting what the market has long since discounted. The time has now come to look forward to brighter days.	7.5%	-2.8%	-9.4%	28.3%	-
12/9/08	The bear market price low…is probably…in for the SPX… Once the Kress interim cycle bottoms later this month the market will be free of all intermediate term cyclical constraints and should be able to commence a new cyclical bull market heading into 2009.	2.8%	0.2%	-18.8%	24.5%	-
11/29/08	The cycle winds won’t be as harsh in 2009 as they were in 2008 and this should relieve a lot of pressure from equities…	11.5%	10.7%	-14.7%	34.8%	+
8/20/08	…the volatility that has characterized the year 2008 to date should soon be dissipating…as the cycles finally allow for a relatively smoother, sustainable rally into 2009 until the 10-year cycle peaks next summer.	0.6%	-1.5%	-33.3%	-19.5%	-
8/5/08	The “birthing pains” are nearly over and soon we’ll have a new bouncing baby bull on our hands.	0.4%	-3.7%	-24.6%		-
4/24/08	…things are improving more and more each week. It won’t be long now before eventually those individual stock prices start moving higher in response to the market’s internal improvement.	1.8%	-0.9%	-7.7%	-38.4%	-
4/2/08	As the interim bottoming process continues, the market’s undeniable message is that better days are ahead…	-1.0%	3.4%	-6.4%	-38.4%	-
3/12/08	The sentiment couldn’t be any more bearish right now. Everyone is talking about recession and more financial turmoil as if it’s inevitable. That by itself is an indication that the stock market has already priced in the worst and an interim bottoming process is well underway.	-0.8%	1.8%	3.8%	-42.4%	-
2/18/08	Valuation remains bullish…and this is a big reason why another repeat of 2000-2002 isn’t expected. …With the worst of the financial crisis already…in the front covers of the major news magazines, you can bet the stock market has already discounted the future.	2.4%	-3.7%	5.7%	-42.9%	-
1/25/08	Obviously most investors expect the market to break down and keep falling from here and go into a tailspin. …I’m banking on the ageless wisdom of “The obvious is obviously wrong.”	4.9%	3.8%	4.4%	-34.3%	+
1/1/08	…2008 should be another favorable year for stocks based on the extremely favorable valuation of stocks and the still-strong “Wall of Worry” that is being aided and abetted by today’s negative news headlines.	-2.6%	-3.6%	-5.5%	-35.9%	-
12/5/07	…help is on the way for the stock market, for when…money market funds soar, it only takes a lifting of the headline fear before that scared money comes rushing back into the stock market.	0.1%	-4.6%	-12.2%	-38.7%	-
11/29/07	…the next momentum rally…is almost certainly coming and will be powerful… …When the S&P returns to its October high in a few weeks… The bull market is very much still alive, in fact stronger than ever. …The fundamental outlook for stocks is outstanding and this is why the so-called Dow Theory “sell signal” carries little weight right now. …”Fear not, happier days are on the way!”	2.6%	-0.1%	-9.5%	-42.2%	-
10/11/07	…exercise greater caution in the next few days…we could be in for a few bumps along the road before we enter the historically prosperous November-December time frame.	-0.9%	-6.5%	-8.6%	-35.8%	0
9/18/07	(…traders who bought the August low on my previous recommendation, take some profit at this time.) …the stock market’s “Wall of Worry” is firmly intact and the intermediate-term upside potential remains heading into the fourth quarter.	-0.2%	1.4%	-3.4%	-17.4%	-
8/30/07	…the end result of the recent volatility spike will be positive for stocks.	-0.3%	6.1%	0.8%	-12.5%	+
8/24/07	Can you smell the fear in the air? …it’s showing up big time in the market’s leading psychology indicators. Several of these indicators have given super-bullish signals…telling us that we should…remain bullish on the stock market…	-0.4%	2.6%	-4.2%	-13.4%	-
8/18/07	In view of the stocks market’s current 35% undervaluation in relation to the 10-year bond yield, does any rational investor doubt the market will eventually seek its “true level” once the current fear subsides? That true level is undoubtedly at a much higher price than the one we’re seeing today.	1.5%	5.8%	0.4%	-11.6%	+
8/12/07	…selling has been overdone and will likely be made up for with reactionary upside move that retraces the market’s losses and takes the S&P 500 back up to its July high or higher by summer’s end.	-0.5%	1.3%	1.5%	-11.0%	+
8/2/07	Once again the ever-growing fear of the Main Street masses has led to capitulation at what looks to be another important stock market bottom in the making…the worst has been seen in this latest correction and it’s time to look past the rhetoric and do some nibbling…we have all the ingredients for a continuation of the bull market with limited downside potential.	-1.3%	0.1%	4.0%	-12.7%	-
6/30/07	The present case of bubble-phobia is just what the market needs to remain firm in the face of all manner of internal and external pressures.	-0.6%	-3.5%	0.5%	-16.9%	-
6/1/07	The rain is pouring on the bears’ parade while the circus party rages on. Given the choice between the bears’ vision of the market’s future and that of the bulls, I say send in the clowns by all means!	-1.9%	-1.1%	-4.7%	-10.4%	-
5/10/07	The public will someday come back again to the stock market in droves… Once the news headlines turn rosy again it will be the signal for the final stampede to begin. Until then, the bull market will remain firmly intact.	0.8%	2.2%	5.7%	-6.8%	+
4/15/07	The interim trend remains bullish. …It…wouldn’t be surprising to see an increase in resistance in the very short term.	0.8%	2.2%	5.7%	-7.0%	+
3/22/07	…we have the makings of a turnaround. …The stock market is temporarily “overbought” based on the oscillators so a temporary pullback or correction wouldn’t be out of place here. But the main trends remain up going forward.	-0.8%	3.2%	5.5%	-6.5%	+
3/8/07	The uptrend should eventually resume although a further period of consolidation and base building may be required. …If history is any guide this will prove to be a major bottom and should be followed by a worthwhile advance in stock prices…	-0.7%	3.0%	8.2%	-5.8%	+
2/3/07	The latest all-time high in the DJTA should mean we’ll see more money from the retail investor finding its way into the stock market in coming weeks and months. As long as the broad market’s internal momentum…keeps increasing, stock prices have higher to go in the foreseeable future. The fact that the Transportation industry stocks are finally joining the new highs list once again will only add to the market’s internal strength.	-0.9%	-3.8%	4.1%	-7.6%	-
1/1/07	It has been several years since this many bullish technical and fundamental factors have conspired to point to a bull market for stocks…we welcome the many profitable opportunities the year 2007 is sure to bring…	-0.1%	2.2%	1.5%	0.0%	-
12/13/06	…the U.S. economy is not on the verge of major recession as the bearish analysts claim. And the stock market can only benefit from these healthy levels of bank credit in the weeks and months ahead.	0.7%	1.2%	-1.9%	3.0%	-
11/29/06	The Fed has been pumping for the past few weeks and by early 2007 we should see an even greater infusion of liquidity back into the monetary system which in turn will…further help the stock market.	1.0%	1.3%	-0.9%	4.5%	+
9/29/06	I expect…stocks turning up strongly again sometime in October or early November.	1.0%	3.2%	6.7%	15.5%	+
9/12/06	The market doesn’t appear ready to blast off to the upside any time soon. This may have to wait until October or November… There should be an overall trading range environment as opposed to an outright downtrend…we’ll need to be on the lookout for a potential short-term market top later next week.	0.4%	2.8%	7.4%	12.5%	+
8/25/06	…we’ll likely remain below the May high and within the recent trading range…until the 4-year cycle formally bottoms in less than two weeks…the cycle-related apathy and morass the market has been subjected to this year from the descent of the 4-year/8-year cycle should soon be coming to an end.	1.2%	3.2%	8.6%	12.6%	+
5/7/06	…a ton of liquidity in capital markets…will translate into a strong backdrop for the global boom in stock and commodity prices to continue.	-2.3%	-5.2%	-3.4%	13.5%	-
12/26/05	The year 2006…should continue to enjoy the benefit from the rising tide of the past couple of years. The year ahead will undoubtedly be rocky at times, particularly as we draw closer to…the third quarter. But there will also be some very worthwhile rallies, including one in the early part of the year…	1.3%	2.2%	2.9%	12.9%	0
7/28/05	…there’s life yet in this market, which shouldn’t be discounted.	-0.6%	-3.1%	-3.8%	2.2%	-
6/20/05	As we head closer to the end of the month it wouldn’t be surprising to see the recent upside momentum in the broad market reverse sharply and give way to a developing downside momentum of stock prices…	-2.1%	1.6%	1.8%	2.4%	-
6/2/05	As the month of June progresses we’ll likely see the recent upside momentum in the broad market reverse sharply and give way to a developing downside momentum of stock prices…	-0.3%	-0.8%	0.3%	4.9%	-
4/19/05	…while we may not witness the neutrals eager to join the bullish camp in the immediate-term, we’ll probably witness the neutrals once again jumping off the fence and plunging headlong into the bullish camp later this summer…	-0.1%	2.8%	5.9%	13.7%	+
2/28/05	…this year may not witness a net gain for the year as measured by the S&P. But before the next major cycle peak this summer we should witness at least a couple of profitable broad market rallies that should push stock prices to higher highs…	1.8%	-1.8%	-0.5%	7.1%	-
1/22/05	Based on the position of the cycles in coming months there should be at least two more good short selling opportunities this year. Volatility will likely increase…	1.5%	2.3%	-1.0%	9.5%	-
1/8/05	The correction…is still underway and should carry the major indices lower…later this month…[then] the SPX will continue along its upward path…most likely to a higher high [1260]. …The first half of the year will largely be owned by the bulls, while the second half looks like it could be controlled by the bears.	0.5%	0.1%	-0.8%	8.0%	0
12/18/04	This minor breakout above 1200 earlier in the week followed by the failure to follow through actually represents exhaustion of the immediate-term trend and is usually followed by a corrective decline.	1.6%	-1.6%	-0.9%	5.7%	+
12/9/04	…the market has likely seen its top for the year. …conservative traders should limit their exposure to the market in the immediate-term… While my overall outlook for early 2005 remains bullish,…we could be hitting a “speed bump” as we end 2004 and head into 2005.	1.2%	0.1%	1.7%	6.0%	-
12/2/04	…it’s only a matter of time for the economy to show signs of major improvement compared to earlier this year. Here is yet another reason why the financial system is likely to become re-liquified in the months ahead. Bottom line: Stay bullish!	-0.1%	1.0%	1.7%	6.0%	-
11/14/04	…history will once again repeat itself and the X-5 year of 2005 will again be a winner.	-0.6%	1.9%	1.9%	4.0%	+
10/27/04	The months ahead are likely to be quite bullish for equities…there’s a good chance for recovery highs for the year in the broad market indices.	1.6%	5.1%	4.3%	6.5%	+
10/7/04	…the NASDAQ has seen its lows for this year… The index will most likely lead the broad market higher as we head into the fourth quarter.	-2.4%	3.1%	4.7%	5.0%	-
9/24/04	The 10-year cycle bottom…by the first week of October…coupled with the rising 12-year cycle…should produce a meaningful upward thrust for the broad market…this is indeed a recovery bull market…that should continue until later this decade.	1.9%	-1.4%	9.0%	9.5%	+
9/1/04	…a relatively high percentage of angry bears…will serve as so much rocket fuel for the broad market and economy in the months ahead. …The engineered bull market recovery will continue into the foreseeable future.	1.1%	2.3%	6.1%	10.1%	+
8/18/04	…the Dow’s 10-year moving average…will remain unbroken during the final low of the 10-year cycle in September. If it does it will underscore my point that last year began a recovery bull market…that should last the better part of this decade.	0.9%	3.0%	8.1%	11.4%	+
7/25/04	…the S&P is fairly valued, and this is another reason why a crash is unlikely right now.	2.1%	1.1%	2.1%	14.1%	+
7/10/04	The next major longer-term cycle doesn’t bottom until 2006, which means late 2004-through 2005 should be net bullish for the stock market and U.S. economy.	-1.2%	-3.2%	1.5%	9.8%	+
7/5/04	…August through early October will be the best opportunity for the bear to regain control. But the bears will have their work cut out for them and I don’t believe they will prevail.	-0.1%	-1.6%	1.4%	7.3%	+
6/18/04	…I don’t believe we’ll necessarily see a “spectacular” leg up in stocks anytime soon…we’ll see…a recovery bull market between now and roughly 2007-2009…we’ll witness a bullish 2005…the odd numbered years will be mostly bullish while the even numbered years will be less bullish-to-bearish…	-0.1%	-2.3%	-1.0%	6.9%	0
6/8/04	…a huge pile of money is on the sidelines just waiting to be piled back in…this sideline money is typically earmarked for a rising market, not a selling market…	-0.8%	-2.6%	-1.8%	4.9%	-
5/28/04	The message of the 10-year moving average is that “reports of the bull’s demise are greatly exaggerated.”	1.8%	1.8%	-1.2%	7.5%	-
5/18/04	…[not] overly bearish during the times of weakness… This is essentially what I expect for 2004…	2.0%	4.0%	-0.9%	9.0%	+
5/6/04	…if we emerge from the month of May relatively unscathed (and I believe we will), then it should drive the final nail in the bears’ coffin…	-1.6%	2.4%	-3.0%	4.7%	-
4.27/04	…the middle part of a decade where a major war is fought is bullish without exception…the “fifth” year of every decade is always bullish, too. …Those market forecasters calling for a market crash and economic recession in 2005 had better re-think their positions…	-1.6%	-2.0%	-3.8%	1.6%	+
3/17/04	Assuming the market finds support near its recent lows and turns around this week we should finally get a taste of that “surprise inside” that the bears will find so distasteful, yet…stock bulls should enjoy.	-2.9%	1.0%	0.9%	5.3%	-
2/17/04	…aside from a potentially weaker economy by mid-year, the market will fulfill my forecast of a mostly “sideways” or range-bound trading pattern. This will likely be a rather loose trading range… Then probably an economic rebound in 2005 along with climbing stock markets	-1.5%	-2.9%	-5.3%	3.8%	+
1/1/04	While I do expect a continuation of the uptrend for at least the first few months of the year (temporary set-backs notwithstanding), the second half of the year will be slightly less propitious, and especially in the September-November time frame. The final months of 2004 could witness another significant decline…	1.2%	2.5%	2.1%	6.8%	0
11/28/03	…this year’s market is due a dominant interim cycle bottom in late December, which…should lead to another impressive advance in early 2004 all the way to possibly April…the effect of the 10-year cycle…could create a drag on the stock market in the second half of next year…	0.3%	4.9%	9.2%	12.5%	+
11/17/03	…a new “long-term” bull market is underway. By “long-term” I mean a bull market lasting at least two years…I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the Dow didn’t eventually exceed its early 2000 high near 12,000 within the next couple of years.	0.8%	3.1%	10.4%	12.1%	+
11/6/03	It’s safe to say the short-term trend for stocks remains up. And since this rally is almost eight months old, it’s probably safe to call it an intermediate-term bull market. But what about the long-term (which I define as at least one year or longer)? Is it possible we’ve begun a long-term bull market? Yes, quite possible.	0.0%	1.1%	8.0%	9.9%	+
7/24/03	…I am confident that we have seen the low in the Dow for a while…a period with alternating periods of bull market and bear market within the context of a rather well-defined trading range…is essentially what we can expect for the next 5-6 years ahead.	0.9%	1.2%	6.6%	11.6%	+
7/2/03	…the 1-2 years ahead should see extraordinary deflation across the stock and real estate sectors, as well as in the general economy, and “defensive action” is indeed imperative.	-0.5%	-1.4%	0.2%	12.5%	-

Clif Droke’s Contrarian Triangulation

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