Jon Markman Speculates

Last Updated: May 22, 2010

Guru Accuracy Rating

65%

This is above average.

Current guru average is 48%

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here commentary from Jon Markman’s past articles at MSN Money through early 2010 and from his “Speculations” column at MarketWatch.com since May 2010. Jon Markman is the founder of Markman Capital Insight LLC, which “provides unbiased, unvarnished and up-to-the-minute information, analysis and leadership on the equity and credit markets to thousands of customers worldwide.” There are many additional, older articles by Jon Markman at MSN Money, but the search capabilities there make them very difficult to extract and organize. The chart below extracts those highlights from his commentary most indicative of the direction of the overall U.S. stock market and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 5, 21, 63 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:

Jon Markman considers a wide range of fundamental and technical inputs in assessing the prospects for U.S. equities, with recent emphasis on monetary and credit conditions.
Jon Markman’s sample size is very small, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is very low.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

		S&P 500 Index
Date	Comments from: Jon Markman via MSN Money and MarketWatch.com	5-Day Return	21-Day Return	63-Day Return	254-Day Return
5/22/10	Stocks will almost certainly rebound continue to rally in some fashion in the next few days, perhaps as high as 1,175 on the S&P 500 Index…weak advance followed by a stunning decline is the more likely scenario…even an early summer collapse could be reversed by autumn, and stocks may surprisingly have a shot at making new highs by winter.	-0.3%	1.7%	-0.2%
1/28/10	…the next stretch of activity for U.S. stocks is much more likely to resemble a restless snooze plagued by bad dreams than it is the easygoing stroll we’ve enjoyed since March of last year.	-2.0%	2.9%	9.9%
11/11/09	…the credit bull market that started in the spring will drag stocks along, kicking and screaming…	1.0%	0.7%	-1.8%
10/2/09	This is what a bull market looks like… Imagine a replay of last winter, except in reverse.	4.5%	1.7%	8.8%
9/14/09	Dow 14,000? Maybe not next week. But in three years? Not a problem.	1.5%	2.3%	5.1%
8/21/09	The new bull cycle…is not a mirage or a Trojan horse or a joke — and you will be no more successful in denying it exists than you would be in declaring the Earth flat…	0.3%	4.4%	8.2%		+
7/31/09	…you can probably count on an advance for the rest of the year even if it’s punctuated with more 10% to 15% corrections such as the one just seen in June.	2.3%	3.4%	5.6%	14.2%	+
5/1/09	…with central banks pumping money into the global financial arteries at a breathtaking pace, we’re now likely headed back. …It’ll be bumpy but exciting.	5.9%	7.7%	12.4%	32.9%	+
4/23/09	Personally, I’m hoping we dodge the bullet. But professionally and practically, I’m keeping the flak jacket on and the crash helmet at hand.	2.5%	4.1%	12.0%	38.9%	-
3/17/09	Enjoy the respite and the short-term gains, but recognize that bears are not sleeping — they’re reloading.	3.6%	11.2%	18.7%	49.1%	-
2/18/09	…there will be plenty of time to take advantage of the next bull market soon after it begins…there’s still no need to be a hero and jump the gun.	-3.0%	-0.6%	15.4%	40.5%	+
12/22/08	Though we could certainly see a classic bear market rally of as much as 25% over the next month or two…, after that it looks like the Fed’s efforts are aimed not at full recovery but at smoothing the country’s glide path to a slower-growth, lower-debt world.	2.2%	-4.6%	-7.5%	29.2%	-
12/12/08	In 2009, final lows will come at 550 to 700…	0.9%	-4.2%	-14.3%	26.1%	+
10/13/08	Stocks are safe again — for now… Stocks should see double-digit percentage gains in the short term.	-4.8%	-10.4%	-13.3%	9.3%	-
8/22/08	…once the Dow Jones industrials climb to around 12,000 by early fall, watch out below.	-0.7%	-8.0%	-37.6%	-20.4%	0
7/24/08	The recent updraft is probably an illusion. There’s no indication the bear market has ended and plenty of evidence it has a long way to fall yet.	1.2%	3.2%	-28.4%	-21.8%	+
5/7/08	Short-term rallies and wishful thinking have buyers ready to pounce, but the end of the credit mess isn’t yet here.	0.8%	-2.6%	-8.1%	-34.9%	+
4/3/08	Bulls can probably push the market an additional 6% higher, to around 1,450 on the S&P 500 Index, but then look for bears to lock ‘n’ load for their next round of mayhem.	-0.6%	2.8%	-6.2%	-39.0%	+
3/27/08	…I am happy to rescind my blanket sell recommendation, as the worst of the threat has likely passed… Indeed, we could be coming into one of the most ideal periods for long-term investors…	3.3%	5.4%	-0.9%	-40.6%	-
3/13/08	…smart investors can avoid the worst of any train wreck ahead by unloading most stocks…soon… On a rebound toward the 1,350-to-1,400 level of the S&P 500 Index, consider exiting shares of all but the strongest, most creditworthy companies. This bear market is likely not ending soon…	1.1%	1.0%	1.5%	-40.8%	+
2/29/08	…enjoy the rally for a few more weeks, but be prepared for a new leg down by the time second-quarter redemption requests hit hedge funds and banks announce their next round of write-downs.	-2.8%	3.0%	5.1%	-46.4%	+
1/4/08	…the best opportunities to make money on the downside will come as those levels are breached and a great sucking sound takes the two indexes down to 1,250 and 11,500 or below [in 2008].	-0.8%	-5.3%	-2.9%	-35.8%	+
2/28/07	…my guess is that the plunge was more like a natural blow-off in an uptrend than the start of a much bigger decline.	-1.1%	1.1%	7.9%	-5.4%	+
1/4/07	The S&P 500 will end 2007 at 1,602, up 13%.	0.4%	2.0%	1.5%	-2.0%	-

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