Louis Navellier: Calculating the Market’s Moves

Last Updated: August 2, 2010

Guru Accuracy Rating

56%

This is above average.

Current guru average is 48%

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the public stock market forecasts of Louis Navellier. Forecasts since the beginning of 2004 come from his weekly “Marketmail” archive. Pre-2004 forecasts (back to March 2001) come indirectly via MarketWatch columns. Louis Navellier is Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc. He is the editor of several investing newsletters with the central belief that “a disciplined quantitative analysis system can discover stocks that should significantly outperform the overall market over the long term.” Peter Brimelow states that “Navellier never times the market. He is always fully invested.” However, he does comment on the prospects for the overall stock market. The table below presents overall U.S. stock market forecasting highlights from his public commentary and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 21, 63, 126 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those that the market has subsequently proven right (wrong). We conclude that:

Louis Navellier’s “Marketmail” forecast horizon is typically one to three months. Unless the forecasts specify other horizons, we default to outcomes at one and three months in grading his predictions.
His timing comments focus on earnings, with wide-ranging references to economic factors (oil, the dollar, Federal Funds Rate, other interest rates, employment…). He also makes frequent references to stock market seasonality and the Presidential term cycle.
Since many of his forecast comments are conditional, we seek the dominant forecast tone for each newsletter. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish between his comments on the overall stock market and those directed at his recommended stocks/sectors.
Several of the newsletters contain complex forecasts that proved to be about equally right and wrong, so we evaluated them as “0″ and graded them both right and wrong.
Louis Navellier’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.

Here are some additional notes to augment the tabular summary below:

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (8/30/10): “Emerging Growth…shows a superior return over the entire period since…1985, achieving some 13.3% annualized vs. 9.9% annualized for the for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. But that reflects its stellar early years. For more than ten years, it’s underperformed the market. And it’s down 3.1% in the year to date through July, vs. 0.7% for the total return Wilshire 5000. …his newer companion letter, Blue Chip Growth, which focuses on large-cap stocks [is] up a solid 6.6% over the year to date, vs. 0.7% for the Wilshire; and 20.9% over the last 12 months, vs. 14.86% for the Wilshire. Blue Chip Growth…shows an overall gain since 1997…of 6.9% annualized vs. 3.3% for the Wilshire.”

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (12/27/07): “…[H]is Blue Chip Growth Letter [appears] in the Top Ten [for 2007], up 25.5%… His Emerging Growth letter, focused on smaller-cap stocks, more or less matched the market this year, up 7.8%, but has beaten it over the much longer term.”

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (4/5/07): “Louis Navellier’s Emerging Growth…is up…19.3% annualized since…1985, vs. 12.7% for the dividend-reinvested DJ Wilshire. …Yet in the most recent 12 months…Navellier’s Emerging Growth lost 4.9%.”

From Ari Charney in MarketWatch (2/14/07): “While Navellier achieved seven consecutive years of truly eye-popping returns from 1985 through 1991, his record since then has been spotty. He’s lagged the market, sometimes considerably, in seven of the past 15 years. …[T]he lessons from the success of his system…have since been absorbed and replicated by a greater number of players. With so many players now chasing many of the same high relative strength stocks, the profitability of such a system may diminish. Though Navellier is still capable of trouncing the market, such as during the three years from 2003-2005, his strategy may no longer be sufficiently compensating investors for the volatility they must endure when following his advice over the long-term. …[H]is risk-adjusted returns…have lagged the market over a number of time periods over the trailing 15 years.”

From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (9/20/06): “Over the past 12 months…this newsletter has actually produced a loss…: minus 9.7% vs. an 8.9% gain for the DJ Wilshire.”

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (2/21/05): “…as of Jan. 31, a technical service was the top-performer over the past 20 years — Louis Navellier’s Emerging Growth Letter, up 19.5 percent annualized vs. the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000′s 12.3 percent.”

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (12/27/04): “MPT Review [now Emerging Growth]…was number five, up 25.9 percent in a year when the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 gained 8.7 percent. Since 1985…it has gained…20.5 percent annualized, vs. the Wilshire 5000′s…12.7 percent annualized.”

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (7/18/02): “Over 15 years, MPT Review [now Emerging Growth] is up 14.9 percent annualized, vs. 10.4 percent annualized for the Wilshire. …Navellier’s MPT Review, is down only 7.7 percent over the past year. That is, Navellier has succeeded in outperforming a bear market — by losing less — even though he’s fully invested.”

Navellier & Associates, Inc. regularly reports the performance of their mutual funds for various intervals over the past five years versus benchmark indexes.

See “Testing Navellier’s Stock Picking and Market Timing Based on Fund Performance” for an alternative perspective. See also “The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)” for a review of Louis Navellier’s 2007 book.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

		S&P 500 Index
Date	Comments re: Louis Navellier via MarketWatch and navellier.com	21-Day Return	63-Day Return	126-Day Return	254-Day Return
8/2/10	…the current bond market frenzy is helping to set the stage for a very bullish stock market. The mid-term election could also give stocks a big boost.
7/19/10	…we remain bullish due to global growth and a cyclical U.S. market recovery propelled by (1) a strong earnings announcement season, (2) gradually improving private (vs. government) job creation and (3) the impending mid-term elections, launching a 26-month rally until the next Presidential election.	2.0%
6/7/10	Looking forward, I expect that investors will start to focus on the upcoming second quarter earnings announcements and the overwhelmingly positive economic statistics.	0.9%
6/1/10	If something less than total disaster happens in most…areas, it stands to reason that the market should recover strongly.	-3.7%
5/24/10	…I expect that corporate bonds will lead the next stock market surge, just like they did in 2009, setting up the stock market for an explosive rally.	1.7%	-0.2%
5/10/10	Don’t let these technical problems keep you from profiting from positive fundamentals.	-9.0%	-3.3%
4/19/10	This rapid recovery should help push markets higher…	1.2%	-11.1%
4/5/10	…a lot of the money on the sidelines has to go somewhere and that it will increasingly turn to stocks, especially during the stunning earnings season yet to be reported.	0.8%	-13.5%			-
1/25/10	With some good earnings reports this week, and a strong GDP report on Friday, the market should turn up by week’s end.	0.8%	11.0%	0.5%		-
1/4/10	Bottom line, I’m bullish…	-3.2%	4.8%	-9.7%		-
10/19/09	…we should see GDP growth and stock market growth throughout the rest of 2009 and into 2010, so it’s still “lock and load” time for stock investors.	1.1%	4.8%	10.0%		+
10/2/09	…the fact of the matter is that the stock market should have a fairly smooth ride over the next several months…expect spectacular earnings and a great year-end rally.	1.7%	8.8%	15.8%		+
9/28/09	Soon we will be hearing positive quarter-on-quarter news and positive earnings surprises, lifting the U.S. stock market. It’s all part of what I term the coming “avalanche of good news.”	0.0%	6.0%	10.4%		+
9/14/09	…I am confident that between now and May, the stock market will celebrate the improving earnings environment and favorable economic news…	2.3%	5.1%	9.6%		+
8/31/09	…I am bullish because of (1) the high volume of cash on the sidelines now returning to the stock market, spurred by (2) easy year-over-year comparisons for economic news, and (3) a dramatically improving earnings environment due to easier year-over-year earnings comparisons.	3.6%	6.9%	9.6%		+
7/10/09	Even though there are very serious problems with consumer confidence and unemployment, easy year-over-year earnings comparisons in the coming months should help the overall stock market, especially if there are positive economic headlines.	14.6%	20.3%	29.9%	24.6%	+
5/22/09	Overall, we are still in the midst of the best buying opportunity in decades. …a decisive “spark” to ignite a migration back to stocks…could happen in the upcoming weeks or may have to wait until November…	0.9%	13.6%	25.1%	20.4%	+
5/15/09	I do not expect the March 9th lows to be retested.	3.3%	14.7%	24.4%	26.3%	+
4/24/09	… the stock market has to back and fill a bit, but we remain confident that aggressive investors should be fully invested at the present time. More conservative investors…should dollar cost average in and be fully invested by no later than November, when the stock market will likely be rallying in anticipation of an improving economic environment in 2010.	5.1%	12.7%	24.8%	37.5%	0
4/3/09	The rebound in stocks off the March 9 lows appears to be more than a bear-market rally. …we believe the worst is behind us and that many traders will likely go back to investing for the long term.	7.3%	6.4%	22.2%	40.8%	+
3/27/09	…it’s likely we’ll see more profit taking during the first part of next week.	4.8%	12.8%	28.8%	43.3%	+
2/27/09	…I’m remaining very, very encouraged that the market is bouncing along the bottom on a valuation basis.	7.1%	23.4%	39.9%	52.2%	+
1/17/09	…we expect the stock market to rally on hope near-term, but worry that such a rally could start to fizzle as reality sets in when the Obama honeymoon with the media ends.	-3.3%	3.4%	18.1%	35.6%	0
12/12/08	…the stock market is preparing to surge significantly higher in the months ahead…the majority of the gains could occur very quickly. Long-term investors should therefore remove significant percentages of their…money-market accounts and position themselves for higher returns.	-4.2%	-14.3%	5.0%	26.1%	-
11/7/08	…we’re very near the bottom, certainly low enough that these levels could look like a phenomenal buy a year or two from now. More immediately, …the market’s extreme rollercoaster ride will continue. Nevertheless, …the trend is starting to turn upwards.	-4.5%	-6.6%	-2.3%	18.0%	-
9/26/08	Once we get the details out of the way, the overall market should rebound considerably.	-30.0%	-28.4%	-32.7%	-12.9%	-
8/1/08	It appears that bad news is now good news for the financials. That’s a blessing for the overall market.	1.4%	-26.2%	-34.5%	-20.4%	-
6/20/08	The stock market appears to be headed toward a retest of the lows reached in March.	-3.1%	-8.5%	-31.4%	-31.6%	+
5/9/08	Five Reasons Sell in May and Go Away Will Not Occur in 2008	-2.1%	-8.8%	-31.4%	-36.3%	-
4/4/08	The good news is short-covering rallies are how market bottoms are made, so these violent updrafts are welcome. …the most obvious bargain is the stock market, which is close to the lowest price-to-earnings ratio in almost 20 years.	3.5%	-7.9%	-15.3%	-40.5%	-
3/17/08	Navellier…envisions a powerful rally beginning soon and lasting at least up until the Presidential election in November. “The good times aren’t too far away, so I want you to prepare your portfolios accordingly.”	6.9%	6.5%	-2.0%	-38.6%	0
3/7/08	This is not the time to get brave and bottom fish.	5.6%	8.6%	-4.4%	-44.2%	-
2/1/08	…there could be a great buying opportunity for conservative investors…soon, most likely between March and May. Until then, a retest of the stock market’s recent lows is probably in the cards…stay in your seats and keep your belts fastened. …we are now in the midst of an incredible buying opportunity. Aggressive investors can jump in any time…	-4.9%	1.3%	-9.2%	-40.4%	-
1/11/08	Now that the economy is the biggest issue on voters’ minds, the economic debate will pick up and help the overall market.	-3.7%	-4.9%	-11.5%	-39.9%	-
11/16/07	Overall, this holiday season should represent a great buying opportunity. This is the seasonally strong time of year for the stock market when year-end pension funding typically helps ignite a rally. As we enter 2008, another wave of pension funding will arrive and help to further bolster the stock market.	-0.3%	-7.5%	-2.2%	-44.7%	-
11/9/07	The punishing performance of late could continue for a while. In fact, it’s possible the stock market will have to retest the August 16 lows.	1.6%	-7.9%	-3.4%	-41.4%	+
10/5/07	We expect a 25-basis-point cut at the October 30/31st FOMC meeting, and another 25-basis-point cut on December 11th. This should provide a powerful springboard for stocks in general… We are confident that we are in the first inning of a powerful growth rally that could last for the next 12 to 18 months…	-3.6%	-9.4%	-11.9%	-36.8%	-
9/7/07	If we make it through 9/11 without a terrorist attack, stocks should rally on Wednesday, and surge when the Fed begins to cut rates. …Hang in there. This is good news for the long haul.	6.8%	2.2%	-11.0%	-15.2%	-
8/3/07	The short-term outlook for the stock market is more volatility…we must be on alert for a…“retest” of the recent lows. This process may take a few weeks, so if you have some cash to invest, we would invest 50% of it now, and then the balance in late August… If you don’t have additional money to add to the market, hang in there.	3.9%	8.1%	-2.6%	-10.0%	+
6/1/07	…stocks should continue to climb higher…the breadth and power of the overall stock market is expected to start deteriorating. This doesn’t mean that a correction will be around the corner.	-1.1%	-4.7%	-4.4%	-10.4%	-
5/4/07	Although we expect the overall stock market to get more selective in the days ahead, we do not anticipate it to get smacked by the “sell in May and go away” crowd like last year. …you should not sell in May and go away this year.	1.7%	-2.2%	2.9%	-7.2%	-
4/13/07	We expect the stock market to get more volatile…we’re entering a “stock picker’s market.”	3.5%	6.5%	7.5%	-6.1%	-
3/2/07	…the stock market likely will be choppy for the next few weeks. We can almost assure you that we will have to retest the recent lows early next week.	2.7%	10.3%	5.5%	-3.9%	+
2/2/07	Without a doubt, this is a great climate for stocks… We will continue to enjoy institutional buying pressure until April 15, and we should get an extra boost from the Presidential Cycle later this year…	-3.7%	3.7%	1.6%	-8.4%	-
1/5/07	…we are especially optimistic about the overall stock market…in 2007. …The stock market essentially has a lot of upside potential without much downside risk…. To put it simply, this is still “lock and load” time, folks!	2.7%	2.4%	8.6%	0.0%	+
12/1/06	we are now in the early stages of a big stock market rally that will likely persist for at least several months, or possibly longer.	1.5%	-0.1%	9.6%	7.9%	+
11/3/06	…the stock market will likely be “melting up” on order imbalances in the months ahead. …Overall, 2007 is shaping up to be a spectacular year for the stock market.	3.7%	6.1%	10.9%	8.1%	+
10/6/06	…we [are] optimistic that October will carry September’s momentum.	2.2%	4.7%	7.3%	15.2%	+
9/1/06	…the stock market is continuing to bounce along record-low valuations. As a result, it’s time to pick your entry point if you’re not already fully invested.	1.8%	6.8%	6.4%	10.9%	+
8/4/06	…the stock market could explode to the upside at any time. As such, I must insist that all investors remain fully invested…	2.6%	6.9%	13.1%	13.6%	+
7/7/06	Now that Wall Street is refocused on earnings, the stock market should behave in a much more rational manner, providing that results and guidance are strong. We expect both will in fact be stalwart.	0.8%	6.7%	11.4%	22.3%	+
6/2/06	…the summer months will be much more exciting in the wake of the sharp stock market correction in May…the best buying opportunity that we will witness for the rest of this year is now present. …Aggressive investors should be fully invested by June 20th at the latest…	-0.6%	1.2%	8.6%	15.7%	+
5/5/06	…there are not a lot of risks…for the overall stock market…the odds are the U.S. economy will remain strong through the November elections. Welcome to Boomland!	-4.7%	-3.4%	3.2%	13.6%	-
4/7/06	…as the first-quarter earnings announcements commence, the overall stock market will resume hitting new multi-year highs.	2.3%	-2.3%	4.5%	12.1%	+
3/3/06	…we are in a wonderful stock market environment…	0.8%	-0.1%	1.3%	8.9%	-
2/10/06	I must insist that all investors remain fully invested. This is still “lock and load” time for those who are holding a diversified portfolio of fundamentally superior stocks.	2.4%	3.1%	0.4%	15.0%	+
1/6/06	…We are now looking at a bull market that could soar significantly higher. It doesn’t get much better than this. …I expect the S&P 500 to hit an all time high in the months to come. …I strongly recommend that all investors remain fully invested…	-2.4%	1.8%	-1.6%	10.8%	-
12/2/05	We are now looking at a bull market that could soar significantly higher. It doesn’t get much better than this.	0.7%	1.0%	0.0%	11.7%	-
11/4/05	…we are now at a low risk juncture in the stock market…the stock market will finish the year strongly.	3.6%	3.7%	8.6%	13.6%	+
10/21/05	We expect our stocks to bounce on strong announcements. We wouldn’t be surprised if the broad market bounces, too.	6.4%	7.1%	10.9%	17.2%	+
9/2/05	…the overall stock market will improve after the S&P 500 re-alignment is completed on September 16, and positive earnings pre-announcements emerge.	-0.3%	3.8%	4.9%	6.2%	+
8/5/05	…expect the stock market to finish the year on a strong note…we appear to be in the early stages of a broad-based market rally that could last a long time…a powerful combination that will likely send the stock market, especially small-cap companies, dramatically higher for at least the remainder of the year.	0.6%	-1.0%	3.1%	3.2%	-
7/1/05	We are becoming more and more excited about the stock market every week now. …There are just too many indicators that are pointing to an undervalued stock market to ignore. Nonetheless, we may not see much happen in terms of big upside performance for the overall stock market during the summer.	4.2%	2.8%	5.0%	6.7%	+
6/3/05	…there is still a good chance that the stock market could remain bumpy near term…downside risk is very minimal…upside potential far exceeds the downside. As such, I recommend that everyone remain fully invested.	0.7%	2.0%	4.5%	5.0%	+
5/6/05	…I suspect that the breadth and power of the overall stock market will likely remain soft…the overall stock market will meander sideways in a trading range for the foreseeable future.	2.2%	5.5%	3.7%	12.9%	-
4/1/05	…we are now in a very uncertain, almost scary stock market environment for many investors…	-0.9%	2.3%	3.7%	11.3%	+
3/4/05	I love this stock market environment. It would be difficult to think of a better scenario…this is great time to be in great stocks.	-3.3%	-1.5%	-0.1%	4.6%	-
1/7/05	January should rebound… February will likely get off to a strong start if the Iraq election is perceived to be a success…the stock market might become overbought and there will likely be less good news to fuel the rally further…the stock market could become increasingly selective and consolidate its gains.	1.4%	-0.4%	2.2%	9.1%	0
12/3/04	We are now at the seasonally strong time of year…I expect that the next couple months will continue to have strong performance.	-0.3%	2.6%	0.4%	6.1%	-
11/5/04	After Thanksgiving, we will be hitting a seasonally strong time of the year, with pension funding accelerating. Accordingly, we expect the rally to continue.	0.9%	3.2%	0.4%	4.5%	+
10/4/04	…short sellers are on the verge of getting squeezed like a grape in a winepress…this could end up being one of the finest vintages in a long, long time! …the stock market could be on the verge of an enormous rally.	-0.4%	6.8%	3.6%	5.4%	+
9/3/04	…expect stocks to firm, especially now that the summer doldrums season will be officially over after Monday…trading volume should increase, which could easily ignite a massive short-covering rally…	1.9%	6.9%	9.7%	11.0%	+
8/6/04	…we could be stuck at depressed levels throughout August, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see some relief rallies along the way. Further, now that short investors are mostly profitable, there’s no doubt that there will be a race to cover at the bottom, which could ignite a massive rally at any time.	5.4%	7.4%	11.8%	15.7%	+
7/2/04	…if a terrorist attack is avoided the stock market could quickly regain this week’s losses next week.	-2.3%	-1.0%	7.8%	6.2%	-
6/4/04	…the breadth and power of the overall stock market will likely decline…in the upcoming months.	-0.4%	-0.4%	6.0%	6.4%	+
5/7/04	…the summer months may be volatile for the stock market…it may be difficult for the market to make any meaningful moves to the upside,,,we don’t expect any further meaningful downward moves either.	4.0%	-3.2%	5.7%	6.6%	0
4/2/04	…all the money that will be leaving bond land has to go somewhere, and stocks are the most attractive asset class…	-1.9%	-1.4%	-0.9%	4.3%	-
3/5/04	Short term, the stock market could remain sloppy…we will view any weaknesses as buying opportunities.	-0.5%	-3.5%	-3.3%	4.3%	-
2/13/04	The stock market appears poised for a selloff… The most likely scenario would be…1115 level for the S&P 500. …Long term we haven’t seen any data that would lead us to believe that the current bull market is short on legs. However, short term the market could get a bit weak.	-3.1%	-4.3%	-7.1%	5.6%	+
1/2/04	January should be a strong month for the stock market…we are anticipating the stock market to accelerate…it’s pedal to the metal time.	2.5%	2.1%	1.5%	6.8%	+
8/9/03	“…the recent profit-taking activity is just a pause prior to a sustained stock market advance that will likely persist for two years or more…”	3.1%	7.9%	16.2%	8.6%	+
5/27/03	“There is no doubt in my mind that we’re now at the beginning of a great bull market that will last for at least two years.”	2.5%	4.4%	8.6%	17.8%	+
3/3/03	“I strongly recommend that both conservative and aggressive investors jump back into the stock market. The best buying opportunity in my lifetime is about to unfold.”	2.8%	15.4%	20.1%	38.3%	+
1/7/03	“Dividend tax relief is going to help the stock market more than anything that I will probably ever see in my lifetime… This is a very, very bullish event.”	-9.2%	-4.7%	9.2%	21.6%	+
10/8/02	“…every four years, we have a blowout year. And we’re now due for one in 2003.”	15.7%	15.6%	10.0%	30.0%	+
9/20/02	“We expect the weakness to continue as long as there’s a big question mark about Iraq.”	6.4%	5.4%	6.0%	19.4%	-
8/26/02	“We envision a stock market environment with just a select group of stocks performing well while the overall stock market meanders sideways.”	-11.4%	-1.5%	-11.5%	5.8%	-
7/11/02	“…while we may be near the bottom, we [also] may not see any sustainable rallies until the fall.”	-2.0%	-13.9%	-1.9%	7.9%	+
6/8/02	“…there are still plenty of stocks that are overvalued…”	-7.3%	-14.4%	-10.7%	-2.9%	+
2/25/02	“We don’t see much upside potential in the market near-term, but we don’t see substantial downside risk either. …expect the market to continue to bounce around without breaking any major support levels or blasting through resistance levels.”	2.6%	-1.1%	-13.2%	-24.5%	+
2/19/02	“…expect the market to remain in a trading range for the next several weeks.”	6.3%	2.1%	-14.3%	-21.7%	-
1/7/02	“There’s a good chance many of the stocks that have been rallying without fundamentals to back them up will run into selling pressures during earnings season.”	-7.0%	-3.4%	-16.1%	-20.4%	+
11/12/01	…the tail end of the third-quarter earnings announcement season calls for some stock “consolidation.”	1.7%	-1.0%	-1.9%	-19.1%	+
7/30/01	“We still feel the market made its low on April 4th.”	-3.6%	-12.0%	-6.8%	-27.2%	-
7/13/01	“…there is sound reason to think that we’ve seen the worst,”	-2.0%	-9.7%	-7.2%	-34.4%	-
3/29/01	“Most tech stocks are very dangerous right now. …very little opportunity for techs to have any sustainable rallies…”	8.8%	5.5%	-8.4%	-2.6%	-

Louis Navellier: Calculating the Market’s Moves

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