Individual Gurus

As suggested by readers, we evaluate here Bill Cara’s weekly outlooks for the U.S. stock market since January 2005. Bill Cara “is a global capital markets professional who has founded and managed successful full-service and national electronic brokerages.” He is president, head trader and chief market strategist for Cara Trading Advisors, which “actively trades your online account 24 hours a day, minimizing risk and maximizing returns in good times and bad.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Bob Brinker, mostly since August 2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, augmented separately by a few items from other sources. Mr. Brinker is editor of the Marketimer newsletter, which “covers stock market timing, federal reserve policy, specific mutual fund recommendations, and model portfolios for various objectives.” He also hosts the widely syndicated MoneyTalk radio program, during which he “answers investment questions from around the country and discusses current issues…” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the relatively infrequent Forbes.com commentary of Laszlo Birinyi Jr. from the beginning of 2001. Mr. Birinyi is President of Birinyi Associates Inc. In their own words: “We are unique in that we do not analyze the economy, have little interest in corporate developments and fundamentals, and have little use for traditional, technical, quantitative or other market indicators. Our approach is to understand the psychology and history of the market, and most importantly the actions of investors. Much of our effort involves money flows, or what has traditionally been called ticker tape analysis. We follow the ideology of Charles Dow…” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the public stock market forecasts of Louis Navellier. Forecasts since the beginning of 2004 come from his weekly “Marketmail” archive. Pre-2004 forecasts (back to March 2001) come indirectly via MarketWatch columns. Louis Navellier is Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc. He is the editor of several investing newsletters with the central belief that “a disciplined quantitative analysis system can discover stocks that should significantly outperform the overall market over the long term.” Peter Brimelow states that “Navellier never times the market. He is always fully invested.” However, he does comment on the prospects for the overall stock market. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Richard Moroney, editor of the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter since June 2002, initially via Zacks.com and later from MarketWatch. This service claims that: “The Dow Theory’s record of keeping investors on the right side of major market trends is impressive and is a tool that no serious investor should be without.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of John Mauldin in “Thoughts from the Frontline” since January 2001 (the earliest available). According to his web site: “John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.” He is President of Millennium Wave Advisors and past CEO of “the American Bureau of Economic Research, a publisher of investment newsletters and books.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the weekly “Ahead of the Curve” columns in SmartMoney.com since August 2001 (the earliest available). The author, Don Luskin, is the Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market timing advice of Jason Kelly since late 2001. Jason Kelly is the author of the “Neatest Little Guide” series of financial books, The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the accuracy of Gary Kaltbaum’s outlooks for the overall stock market at TradingMarkets.com, available since May 2005. Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor and nationally syndicated radio commentator who believes his job is “to interpret market action based on price and volume adding in a little bit of sentiment.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the commentary in “Jubak’s Journal” at MSN Money since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN Money, with a background in journalism. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading