Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy
Posted in Calendar Effects
November 24, 2015
A reader suggested looking at the strategy described in “Kaeppel’s Corner: Sector Seasonality” (from November 2005) and updated in “Kaeppel’s Corner: Get Me Back, Clarence” (from October 2007). The steps of this calendar-based sector strategy are:
- Buy Fidelity Select Technology (FSPTX) at the October close.
- Switch from FSPTX to Fidelity Select Energy (FSENX) at the January close.
- Switch from FSENX to cash at the May close.
- Switch from cash to Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX) at the August close.
- Switch from FSAGX to cash at the September close.
- Repeat by switching from cash to FSPTX at the October close.
Does this strategy materially and persistently outperform? To investigate, we compare results for three alternative strategies: (1) Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality strategy (Sector Seasonality); (2) buy and hold Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX) as an investable broad index benchmark (VFINX); and, (3) a simplified seasonal strategy using only VFINX from the October close through the May close and cash otherwise (VFINX/Cash). Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing levels for FSPTX, FSENX, FSAGX, the 13-week Treasury bill (T-bill) yield as the return on cash and VFINX over the period December 1985 through Octember 2015 (almost 30 years), we find that: (more…)