Monthly Returns During Presidential and Congressional Election Years

Posted in Calendar Effects, Political Indicators


Do the hopes and fears of elections in the U.S. affect the “normal” seasonal variation in monthly stock market returns? To check, we compare average returns and volatilities (standard deviations of returns) by calendar month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during years with and without quadrennial U.S. presidential elections and biennial congressional elections. Using monthly closes for the DJIA over the period October 1928 through AugustĀ 2015 (over 86 years and 20 presidential elections), we find that: (more…)

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