Simple Asset Class Leveraged ETF Momentum Strategy

Subscribers have asked whether substituting leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) might enhance performance. To investigate, we execute the strategy with the following eight 2X leveraged ETFs, plus cash:

DB Commodity Double Long (DYY)
ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets (EET)
ProShares Ultra MSCI EAFE (EFO)
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL)
ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO)
ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 (UWM)
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (URE)
ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

We consider portfolios of Top 1, equally weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 past winners. We include as benchmarks: an equally weighted portfolio of all ETFs, rebalanced monthly (EW All); buying and holding SSO (SSO); and, holding SSO when the S&P 500 Index is above its 10-month simple moving average (SMA10) and Cash when the index is below its SMA10 (SSO:SMA10). Using monthly adjusted closing prices for the specified ETFs and the yield for Cash over the period January 2010 (the earliest month prices for all eight ETFs are available) through January 2019, we find that: (more…)