Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/8/26 through 6/12/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Can investors extract an edge from prediction markets such as Kalshi, the first (2021) Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange that trades on outcomes of future events including consumer price index (CPI), federal funds rate...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as niche selection investment advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (slightly higher than) forecasted.

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as equity factor selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Are low volatility stock strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest low volatility ETFs, all currently available, in order of longest to shortest available histories: Invesco S&P...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as asset class allocation advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/1/26 through 6/5/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as economic forecasters? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude,...

Are the conclusions of recent studies that machine learning models can materially boost risk-adjusted stock portfolio performance reliable? In their May 2026 preliminary paper entitled “All Sizzle, No Steak! How Robust Are Financial Machine Learning...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as niche fundamental analysts? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT,...

Do the record market capitalizations of firms focused on artificial intelligence (AI) reasonably reflect future profit growth, after accounting for huge investments in data centers and ongoing costs to train and deploy AI models? In...

A subscriber asked about the historical experience (distribution of outcomes) of an investor with a 5-year horizon (holding period). To investigate we consider returns for 5-year intervals rolled annually at the end of each calendar...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/26/26 through 5/29/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for June 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS...

Does breadth of equity sector performance predict overall stock market return? To investigate, we relate next-month stock market return to sector breadth (number of sectors with positive past returns) over lookback intervals ranging from 1...

A subscriber asked which exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies make the best safe havens for the U.S. stock market as proxied by the S&P 500 Index. To investigate, we test 16 ETFs/funds as potential...

Are exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on Initial Public Offerings of stocks (IPO) attractive? To investigate, we consider three of the largest IPO ETFs and one recent Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) ETF, one of which...

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as U.S. Treasuries selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok,...

How does the performance of the U.S. stock market compare to that of the aggregated stock markets in the rest of the world over the long run? Is there alternating leadership? To investigate, we use...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/18/26 through 5/22/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Is systematically selling covered call options on equity indexes, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five equity covered call ETFs: Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) – seeks to track the CBOE...

Does the informativeness of markets come from wisdom of the crowd or the wisdom of a few? If a few, who are they? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beyond the Wisdom of the Crowd:...

One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index...