Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/31/26 through 9/4/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Does the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, work across a broad set of asset classes. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the following 10...

A reader inquired whether the Turn-of-the-Month Effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months, works for U.S. stock market sectors. To investigate, we measure turn-of-the-month (TOTM) returns for the...

In “Methodology Changes”, we noted implementation of an “Investing Research Sweep” via Claude to mitigate a markedly lower perceived signal-to-noise ratio from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). In this follow-up, we ask our artificial intelligence...

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer distractions, signal unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for September 2026. Past returns for the top assets are closely bunched, so...

How should investors think about strategies featured as attractive by researchers and investment advisors? In his August 2026 paper entitled “Test Everything, Publish Both Results: A Protocol That Cuts Backtest False Positives from 37% to...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/24/26 through 8/28/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

A subscriber requested measurement of a “premium” associated with U.S. stocks relative to those of other developed markets by looking at the difference in returns between the following two exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500...

How might an investor construct a portfolio of very risky assets? To investigate, we revisit ideas first considered six years ago: First, diversify with monthly rebalancing of: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), an indirect Bitcoin...

Is the proprietary Goldman Sachs Panic Index, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very high (very low), useful for market timing? Because the data series for the index is not...

Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? Because the data series for this...

Does economic growth logically and reliably anchor asset class returns? In his July 2026 paper entitled “A General, Scientific Unified Theory of Economic Growth, Asset Valuation and Return: A Common Necessary Constant Evidence for a...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/17/26 through 8/21/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, three available and one dead, to those for a monthly...

What are likely outcomes for different kinds of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETF), which typically use embedded financing and daily rebalancing to target two or three times the daily return of assets they track? In their...

How should investors weight investment banker pronouncements on asset allocation as reported in financial media? Can the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models assist? As a simple exploration, we...

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on cybersecurity stocks offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of five cybersecurity ETFs, all currently available, to those of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), as follows: Amplify Cybersecurity...

Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/10/26 through 8/14/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that track asset classes, such as those used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS), exhibit reliable seasonalities? To check,...

Large language models (LLM) have quickly become a standard tool for extracting quantitative metrics from unstructured text. Are these metrics more like new data or a biased filter? In the July 2026 revision of their...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting for exploring target entry prices for specific stocks? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to...