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Investing Research Articles

When Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, Sell!

In their March 2005 paper entitled “Congress and the Stock Market,” Michael Ferguson and Douglas Witte examine the relationship between stock market returns and the imminent quantity and the “quality” of Congressional activity using various stock indices over long periods. They find that: Keep Reading

Feeling Pushed Around? Are Your $ in Jeopardy?

In case the market’s got you down… Keep Reading

Fed Model Versus P/E Model

Conventional wisdom says that high market P/E ratios forecast negative future stock returns. In their March 2005 paper entitled “The Market P/E Ratio: Stock Returns, Earnings, and Mean Reversion,” Robert Weigand and Robert Irons to test this conventional wisdom. Using data back to the 1880s, they pit the Fed Model against the P/E mean reversion model to determine which one better explains stock market behavior. They find that: Keep Reading

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify(?)

In their February 2005 paper entitled “Portfolio Concentration and the Performance of Individual Investors,” Zoran Ivkovic, Clemens Sialm and Scott Weisbenner test the dictum for diversification by examining the stock trades of a large number of individuals during 1991-1996 through a discount broker. They find that: Keep Reading

Weighting for Returns

In his December 2004 paper, Jason Hsu shows that: “Cap-Weighted Portfolios Are Sub-optimal Portfolios”. Noting that over $10 trillion are currently invested in passive capitalization-weighted indices, he examines data from 1962-2003 to show that: Keep Reading

Trust Me, It’s a Great Stock

In his December 2004 paper, Michael Cliff examines the period 1994-2003 to answer the following question: “Do Independent Analysts Provide Superior Stock Recommendations?” For his investigation, “independent” means not involved in an investment banking relationship between one year before and two years after a recommendation. He finds that: Keep Reading

Short Kiss of Death?

In his January 2005 paper on “Constrained Short Selling and the Probability of Informed Trade”, Tyler Henry explores the relationship between private information and the returns on stocks with high short interest. He finds that: Keep Reading

Information-Based Trading

Anyone attempting or contemplating day-trading should take a look at “Information-based Trading, Price Impact of Trades, and Trade Autocorrelation” of May 2004 by Kee Chung, Mingsheng Li and Thomas McInish. The authors examine how the price impact of trades and the persistence of trading direction relate to the probability of information-based trading, as opposed to liquidity trading (for example, by market makers) or noise trading (by the uninformed). Here’s what they find: Keep Reading

Short Selling Shocks Stocks

In their February 2005 paper entitled “The Link Between Short Sale Constraints and Stock Prices”, Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy isolate supply and demand shifts in equity lending to examine shorting demand as an indicator, and cause, of future stock returns. Using actual share loan prices and quantities from a large institutional investor during August 1999 to July 2003, they find that: Keep Reading

Explaining Summer Doldrums

In the December 2004 draft of their paper on “Gone Fishin’: Seasonality in Speculative Trading and Asset Prices” Harrison Hong and Jialin Yu examine the effect of vacation periods (summer in the U.S. and January-February in China) on speculative stocks during 1992-2003. They find that: Keep Reading

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