Investing Research Articles

Are return reversals especially strong for lottery stocks? In their October 2023 paper entitled “Maxing Out Short-term Reversals in Weekly Stock Returns”, Chen Chen, Andrew Cohen, Qiqi Liang and Licheng Sun investigate return reversals for lottery stocks, those with high recent maximum daily returns (MAX). Specifically, for their main calculations, they each week: For each… Keep Reading

Does anxiety about having enough money play an important role in asset selection decisions, and thereby asset returns? In his March 2024 paper entitled “Money Anxiety Theory – a Predictor of Equity’s Performance”, Dan Geller tests the ability of his proprietary Money Anxiety Index (MAI) to identify long and short portfolios of ETFs that beat… Keep Reading

Can surveys of various expert and inexpert groups usefully predict stock market returns? In their March 2023 paper entitled “How Accurate Are Survey Forecasts on the Market?”, Songrun He, Jiaen Li and Guofu Zhou assess abilities of the following three surveys to predict S&P 500 Index returns: The Livingston (LIV) survey of professional forecasters from… Keep Reading

Do the trading activities of especially informed equity and equity option traders predict stock returns? In the June 2025 revision of their paper entitled “An Information Factor: What Are Skilled Investors Buying and Selling?”, Matthew Ma, Xiumin Martin, Matthew Ringgenberg and Guofu Zhou construct an information factor (INFO) using the trades of corporate insiders, short… Keep Reading

…VIX signals are useful for short-term switching between small-capitalization and large-capitalization stock indexes, especially when VIX is historically high.

…presumably sophisticated hedge fund investors as a group chase past returns and fail to time their investments successfully.

Various studies find that returns on individual stocks exhibit tendencies for short-term (one month) reversal, medium-term (3-12 months) momentum and long-term (2-5 years) reversal. The short-term reversal is the basis for the skip-month included in some medium-term momentum strategies. Is there a way to concentrate the short-term reversal? In the March 2010 update of their… Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering… Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Curt Hesler since January 2003. Curt Hesler has published Professional Timing Service since 1978, noting that: “One thing I have learned is that you must be cautious to be successful.” He makes past issues of his bi-monthly newsletter, usually including an outlook… Keep Reading

Do country economic fundamentals provide exploitable information about future changes in associated currency exchange rates? In the June 2013 version of their paper entitled “Currency Risk Premia and Macro Fundamentals”, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling and Andreas Schrimpf investigate the usefulness of economic fundamentals in currency trading by measuring the performance of multi-currency hedge… Keep Reading