June 21, 2011 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 45%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Gary Savage’s outlooks for the U.S. stock market since May 2007 as extracted from his current Smart Money Tracker blog (since March 2010) and its predecessor site. While Gary Savage states that his “main goal…for the next few years will be to keep investors focused on riding… Keep Reading
April 19, 2005 - Short Selling
…short sellers throw in the towel (throw more punches) when stock prices move against (with) their positions.
December 18, 2013 - Short Selling
Does the limited supply of lendable shares substantially inhibit successful short selling? In the November 2013 draft of their paper entitled “In Short Supply: Equity Overvaluation and Short Selling”, Messod Beneish, Charles Lee and Craig Nichols examine the profitability of shorting U.S. stocks based on the supply of shares available for lending. They note that the… Keep Reading
March 23, 2007 - Short Selling
…it appears that some short selling is manipulative, seeking to scare other traders out of their holdings during sharp but temporary engineered price drops.
February 26, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 53%
In this entry, we update our review of the weekly “Technical Market Insight” of BusinessWeek online by Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for Standard & Poor’s, since early 2003. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the… Keep Reading
March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 50%
We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of… Keep Reading
June 15, 2022 - Technical Trading
Should investors dismiss short-term signals as unexploitable due to high trading frictions? In their May 2022 paper entitled “Beyond Fama-French Factors: Alpha from Short-Term Signals”, David Blitz, Matthias Hanauer, Iman Honarvar, Rob Huisman and Pim van Vliet investigate whether investors can extract a material net alpha by applying efficient trading rules to a composite of… Keep Reading
March 27, 2010 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 40%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of John Mauldin in “Thoughts from the Frontline” since January 2001 (the earliest available). According to his web site: “John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn… Keep Reading
September 19, 2012 - Commodity Futures, Sentiment Indicators
The zero-sum S&P 500 futures/options market involves three groups of traders: (1) commercial hedgers; (2) non-commercial traders (large speculators); and, (3) non-reportable traders (small or retail speculators) representative of the public. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) collects and publishes aggregate positions (short, long and spread) for each group in a weekly Commitment of Traders… Keep Reading
December 17, 2019 - Equity Premium, Momentum Investing, Value Premium, Volatility Effects
Do both the long and short sides of portfolios used to quantify widely accepted equity factors benefit investors? In their November 2019 paper entitled “When Equity Factors Drop Their Shorts”, David Blitz, Guido Baltussen and Pim van Vliet decompose and analyze gross performances of long and short sides of U.S. value, momentum, profitability, investment and… Keep Reading