Investing Research Articles

…evidence suggests that the fear-driven gap between option-implied volatility and contemporaneous realized volatility for a broad stock market index may offer investors/traders a small edge in anticipating near-term stock and bond returns.

Do the stock recommendations of guru Jim Cramer on CNBC’s Mad Money move the market? Do they beat the market? In their May 2009 paper entitled “Investing in Mad Money: Price and Style Effects”, Paul Bolster and Emery Trahan examine the market impacts and performances of buy and sell recommendations made by Jim Cramer on… Keep Reading

…limited evidence suggests that simple trend conditions may amplify return anomalies related to the turn of the month and options expiration. As usual monthly variability is fairly large compared to differences in means for monthly segments.

…the Common Sense buy-low/sell-high strategy appears not to be an effective asset allocation approach because it is somewhat out of phase with momentum and value return horizons.

…a very limited test suggests that adding simple moving average signals to asset class momentum investing may enhance returns.

…limited evidence suggests that the stock market forecasting accuracy rate of a reasonably diversified group of experts is roughly stable over time at close to 50-50.

…simple analyses suggest that the TOTM effect may help reduce the loss frequency and average in-the-money expiration loss for selling index put options.

…investors may be able to predict which stocks are headed for substantial declines the next year as management efforts to keep the the price propped up fail.

…evidence indicates that equity mutual fund managers can select stocks that deliver economically large risk-adjusted returns, but little of this alpha gets through to fund investors because of alpha-free incentives for fund managers to diversify. Individual investors may want to focus, independently, on stocks that fund managers have newly overweighted.

…limited evidence suggests that investors who rely on fundamental valuation should consider using comparables (valuation multiples) based on harmonic means of several years of historical data as forecast drivers.