A subscriber asked about the historical experience (distribution of outcomes) of an investor with a 5-year horizon (holding period). To investigate we consider returns for 5-year intervals rolled annually at the end of the year based on:
- Annual nominal and real total returns for Shiller's long-run S&P Composite Index during 1871-2024, offering 148 overlapping 5-year intervals (only 29.6 independent intervals). We frictionlessly reinvest dividends annually.
- Annual nominal capital gains for the S&P 500 Index during 1927-2023, offering 93 overlapping 5-year intervals (only 18.6 independent intervals).
Using much shorter samples available for assets such as exchange-traded funds offers results and comparisons of very low reliability. Using annual returns for the two indexes as described, we find that:
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