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Investing Research Articles

3151 Research Articles

Testing the Buffett Indicator Outside the U.S.

Is the Buffett Indicator, the ratio of total stock market capitalization to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a useful indicator of future stock market performance internationally? In their March 2022 paper entitled “The Buffett Indicator: International Evidence”, Laurens Swinkels and Thomas Umlauft extend Buffett Indicator research from the U.S. to 14 international equity markets. Because the value… Keep Reading

Are Equity Momentum ETFs Working?

Are stock and sector momentum strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider eight momentum-oriented equity ETFs, all currently available, in order of longest to shortest available histories: Invesco DWA Momentum Portfolio (PDP) – invests at least 90% of assets in approximately 100 U.S. common stocks per a proprietary methodology designed… Keep Reading

Intraday and Overnight Return Momentum and Reversal Signals

Do intraday (open-to-close, trading-driven/technical) and overnight (close-to-open, news-driven) stock returns play different roles in signaling short-term reversal, intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversion? In their March 2022 paper entitled “What Drives Momentum and Reversal? Evidence from Day and Night Signals”, Yashar Barardehi, Vincent Bogousslavsky and Dmitriy Muravyev investigate by relating past cumulative daily, intraday and dividend-adjusted… Keep Reading

Very Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (VSACEMS)

A subscriber requested evaluation of a streamlined version of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) that considers only three exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) To evaluate, we test a strategy that each month picks the one… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 5/9/22 – 5/13/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/9/22 through 5/13/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

GNR Instead of DBC in SACEMS?

A subscriber proposed substituting SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) for Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a proxy for commodities in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). GNR holds stocks of relatively large firms engaged in natural resources and commodities businesses. DBC holds a range of commodity futures contracts…. Keep Reading

Patterns in Short-term Bitcoin Returns?

Are there short-term patterns in bitcoin returns? In their April 2022 paper entitled “Seasonality, Trend-following, and Mean Reversion in Bitcoin”, Matus Padysak and Radovan Vojtko explore short-term bitcoin return behaviors. They look at: Daily patterns with respect to NYSE trading hours, defining intraday return as 10:00-16:00, overnight return as 16:00-10:00 and daily return as 1600-16:00… Keep Reading

Inflation Forecast Update

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2022. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (higher than) forecasted.

Finding Stocks with Persistent Momentum

Can investors improve the performance of stock momentum portfolios by isolating stocks that “hold” their momentum? In their April 2022 paper entitled “Enduring Momentum”, Hui Zeng, Ben Marshall, Nhut Nguyen and Nuttawat Visaltanachoti exploit firm characteristics to identify stocks that continue to be winners or losers after selection as momentum stocks (stocks with enduring momentum)…. Keep Reading

Damodaran Equity Premium Estimates and Future Stock Market Returns

In response to “Best Equity Risk Premium”, a subscriber asked whether the annual equity risk premium estimates of Aswath Damodaran predict stock market returns one year ahead. The cited source offers two 61-year series of annual estimates of the U.S. equity risk premium implied by an S&P 500:  Dividend Discount Model (DDM).  Free Cash Flow… Keep Reading