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3185 Research Articles

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 8/8/22 – 8/12/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/8/22 through 8/12/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Currency Crashes and Future Stock Market Returns

A subscriber asked whether a rapid, large (20% or more) individual country currency devaluation versus the U.S. dollar indicates that the country’s stock market will rise the next quarter (with country exports presumably more competitive post-devaluation). To investigate, we select five currency exchange rates versus the U.S. dollar and relate monthly and quarterly changes in… Keep Reading

Impact of Portfolio Formation Rule Variation on Factor Premiums

How sensitive are findings about the magnitude and reliability of equity factor premiums to differences in the rules researchers use in sorting stocks to calculate them? In their July 2022 paper entitled “Non-Standard Errors in Portfolio Sorts”, Dominik Walter, Rüdiger Weber and Patrick Weiss examine variations in factor premiums (non-standard errors) due to differences in… Keep Reading

Inflation Forecast Update

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2022. The actual total (core) inflation rate is lower than (the same as) forecasted.

Switching Between Offensive and Defensive Momentum Universes

Should investors consider complex exchange-traded fund (ETF) momentum strategies with flexible sets of choices for offensive and defensive stances and a separate short-term decision tool for choosing a stance? In his July 2022 paper entitled “Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA)”, Wouter Keller examines a (BAA-G12) strategy that… Keep Reading

Any Lead-lag Relationships Between Gold and 10-year U.S. Treasuries?

A subscriber asked whether there are any lead-lag relationships between gold, proxied by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and 10-year U.S. Treasury note (T-note) yields. As a proxy for the latter, we use iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF). Using daily and monthly dividend-adjusted prices for GLD and IEF during mid-November 2004 (limited by GLD)… Keep Reading

Are iShares Core Allocation ETFs Attractive?

The four iShares Core Asset Allocation exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer exposures to U.S. stocks, global stocks and bonds semiannually rebalanced to fixed weights, as follows. iShares Core Conservative Allocation (AOK) – 30% stocks and 70% bonds (30-70). iShares Core Moderate Allocation (AOM) – 40% stocks and 60% bonds (40-60). iShares Core Growth Allocation (AOR) –… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 8/1/22 – 8/5/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/1/22 through 8/5/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Do Convertible Bond ETFs Attractively Meld Stocks and Bonds?

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, all currently available, to those for a monthly rebalanced 60%-40% combination of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD): SPDR Bloomberg… Keep Reading

Maximum Drawdown as Fund Performance Predictor

Is past rolling maximum drawdown, a simple measure of recent downside risk, a useful indicator of future mutual fund performance? In their June 2022 paper entitled “Maximum Drawdown as Predictor of Mutual Fund Performance and Flows”, Timothy Riley and Qing Yan investigate whether style-adjusted maximum drawdown based on daily returns over the last 12 months… Keep Reading