Investing Research Articles

Does bitcoin (BTC) return exhibit any exploitable leading or lagging roles with respect to gold (SPDR Gold Shares – GLD) return, change in the all-items consumer price index (CPI) or change in the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) for a monthly measurement interval? To investigate, we compute correlations between monthly BTC return and each of… Keep Reading

Is the performance of listed private equity funds (LPE) on the London Stock Exchange attractive? In their August 2025 paper entitled “What the London Stock Exchange can Teach Us About Private Equity”, Richard Ennis and Daniel Rasmussen examine LPE volatility, valuation and performance and compare findings with those based on private equity net asset values… Keep Reading

How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR)? We focus on monthly changes (simple differences) in EFFR  and look at lead-lag relationships between change in EFFR and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies: Equities: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell… Keep Reading

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on cybersecurity stocks offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of five cybersecurity ETFs, all currently available, to those of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), as follows: Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK) Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) WisdomTree… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/25/25 through 8/29/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, all currently available, to those for a monthly rebalanced 60%-40% combination of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD): SPDR Bloomberg… Keep Reading

Do returns for U.S. stock options exhibit half-day momentum/reversal effects? In their August 2025 paper entitled “In Search of Seasonality in Intraday and Overnight Option Returns”, Turan Bali, Amit Goyal, Mathis Moerke and Florian Weigert examine momentum and reversal patterns in half-day (intraday and overnight) option returns. They specify intraday return as that from 10:00AM… Keep Reading

Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news immediately after being elected and do everything in their power to create good news just before ensuing biennial elections. Are… Keep Reading

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that track asset classes, such as those used in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS), exhibit reliable seasonalities? To check, we look at average return by calendar month for the following nine ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) iShares… Keep Reading

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer distractions, signal unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from the turn of the month. To investigate the possibility of short-term effects on stock market returns around Labor Day, we… Keep Reading