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3059 Research Articles

Testing a SPY-EEMV-VT-TLT-PBBBX Allocation Strategy

In reaction to “Testing the EFA-SPY-TLT-PBBBX EW Strategy”, a subscriber asked about the performance of a strategy that each year rebalances to 25% SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), 10% iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor (EEMV),  15% Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT), 25% iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) and 25% PIA BBB Bond Fund (PBBBX)…. Keep Reading

Classic Stocks-Bonds Portfolios with Leveraged ETFs

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios and Portfolio Insurance”, flagged by a subscriber, Mikhail Smirnov and Alexander Smirnov consider several variations of classic stocks/bonds portfolio as implemented with leveraged… Keep Reading

Asset Class 12-month Reversion?

A subscriber, hypothesizing that asset classes with weak past returns should revert, requested testing of a strategy that each month holds the equal-weighted three of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) universe with the lowest cumulative returns over the past 12 months (12-month EW Bottom 3). For comparison, we use the SACEMS EW… Keep Reading

Misery Index and Future U.S. Stock Market Returns

Does the Misery Index, the sum of the U.S. total inflation rate and the U.S. unemployment rate, predict U.S. stock market returns? To investigate, we relate monthly Misery Index and monthly change in Misery Index to monthly S&P 500 Index (SP500) returns. Using monthly Misery Index level and monthly SP500 level during January 1948 (limited… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 7/26/21 – 7/30/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/26/21 through 7/30/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Testing the EFA-SPY-TLT-PBBBX EW Strategy

A subscriber asked about the performance of a strategy that each month rebalances to 25% international equities, 25% U.S. equities, 25% U.S. Treasuries and 25% BBB bonds, and how this performance compares to that of a portfolio that each month allocates 50% to Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value and 50% to… Keep Reading

Post-discovery Effects on Anomaly Return Sequence

Does anomaly publication lead to its speedy exploitation? In his March 2021 paper entitled “The Race to Exploit Anomalies and the Cost of Slow Trading”, Guy Kaplanski studies a sample of widely accepted U.S. stock return anomalies to determine how discovery and publication of an anomaly affects the timing of future returns. He quantifies anomalies… Keep Reading

Momentum and Reversal Drivers for Large U.S. Stocks

What drives 12-month (with skip-month) momentum and 1-month reversal effects among U.S. common stock returns?  In their July 2021 paper entitled “Mapping out Momentum”, Yimou Li and David Turkington decompose momentum and reversal effects into distinct industry/sector, factor (size, value, profitability, investment) and stock-specific contributions. In addition to full-sample results, they look at: High and… Keep Reading

U.S. Stock Market Returns Around Scheduled FOMC Meetings

A subscriber requested testing of a strategy that buys SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) at the open on the day before each scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and sells at the close. Using daily dividend-adjusted SPY open and close prices and dates of FOMC meetings during January 2016 through June 2021 (43 meetings), we… Keep Reading

Unemployment Rate and Stock Market Returns

Financial media and expert commentators often cite the U.S. unemployment rate as an indicator of economic and stock market health, generally interpreting a jump (drop) in the unemployment rate as bad (good) for stocks. Conversely, investors may interpret a falling unemployment rate as a trigger for increases in the Federal Reserve target interest rate (and… Keep Reading