Investing Research Articles

Does the speed of a stock index decline from a recent high help decide whether to buy-the-dip or wait? In his April 2023 paper entitled “The 5% Canary”, Andrew Thrasher evaluates the whether the duration of initial 5% declines from 52-week highs for the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) help quantify… Keep Reading

Can day traders reliably get rich quick? In their April 2023 paper entitled “Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable? Evidence of Sustainable Long-term Profits from Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Day Trading Strategy vs. Benchmark in the US Stock Market”, Carlo Zarattini and Andrew Aziz test the performance of a 5-minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/1/23 through 5/5/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A reader requested: “I would love to see a backtest pitting a 10-month simple moving average (SMA) against a 200-day SMA for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). I assume trading costs would go through the roof on the latter, but do performance gains offset additional costs?” Others asked about a 40-week SMA. To investigate, we use… Keep Reading

Do funds based on Jim Cramer’s stock/market recommendations generate attractive returns? To investigate, we compare performances for Northern Lights Fund Trust IV – Long Cramer Tracker ETF (LJIM) and Northern Lights Fund Trust IV – Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (SJIM) to that for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The prospectus for LJIM and SJIM… Keep Reading

Conventional wisdom holds that a steep yield curve (wide U.S. Treasuries term spread) is good for stocks, while a flat/inverted curve is bad. Is this wisdom correct and exploitable? To investigate, we consider in-sample tests of the relationships between several yield curve metrics and future U.S. stock market returns and two out-of-sample signal-based tests. Using… Keep Reading

What are current estimates of equity risk premiums (ERP) and risk-free rates around the world? In their April 2023 paper entitled “Survey: Market Risk Premium and Risk-Free Rate used for 80 countries in 2023”, Pablo Fernandez, Diego García de la Garza and Javier Acin summarize results of a March 2023 email survey of international economic… Keep Reading

A subscriber requested evaluation of Investment Advisory Service stock picking ability based on a sample newsletter obtained in mid-April 2023. The offerors state that they follow “a sound, buy-and-hold approach to identifying well-managed, high-quality companies” that “highlights emerging and oft-overlooked stocks with excellent growth potential and reasonable valuations.” The sample newsletter, dated January 2022, includes… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/24/23 through 4/28/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked about the performance of a variation of the monthly reformed 50-50  Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value-Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) Equal-Weighted (EW) Top 2 combination that substitutes 100% SACEMS EW Top 2 whenever both: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is the selection for SACEVS Best Value at the… Keep Reading