Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Read Overview)

Allocations for January 2020 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Read Overview)

Allocations for January 2020 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF
Filter Research

Investing Research Articles

2737 Research Articles

Exploiting Consensus Hedge Fund Conviction Stock Picks

Can investors exploit information about hedge fund stock holdings in SEC Form 13F filings? In their October 2019 paper entitled “Systematic 13F Hedge Fund Alpha”, Mobeen Iqbal, Farouk Jivraj and Luca Angelini investigate whether carefully culled “best ideas” of equity hedge funds produce significantly beat the S&P 500 Total Return (TR) Index. Using quarterly Form… Keep Reading

Stick to the Plan, or Adjust?

When a retirement portfolio veers from its planned path, is it better to count on reversion-to-path or adjust the plan? In his March 2019 paper entitled “Managing to Target: Dynamic Adjustments for Accumulation Strategies”, Javier Estrada employs a simple retirement portfolio model to compare outcomes for sticking to the plan (S2P) with 13 dynamic strategies… Keep Reading

Ways to Beat the Stock Market?

Who beats the stock market and why? In his October 2019 paper entitled “The Five Investor Camps That Try to Beat the Stock Market”, William Ziemba discusses how different categories of investors succeed. For investors pursuing active strategies, he addresses broadly the means of getting an edge and betting well. Based on his academic work… Keep Reading

Using P/E10 Thresholds to Time the U.S. Stock Market

A subscriber requested verification of a fundamental U.S. stock market timing strategy with rebalancing/reallocation of a stocks-bonds portfolio based on Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (P/E10 or CAPE) thresholds, as follows: If P/E10 > 22, hold 40% stocks and 60% bonds. If 14 < P/E10 < 22, hold 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If P/E10… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/25/19 – 11/29/19

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/25/19 through 11/29/19. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

GDP Growth and Stock Market Returns

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) each quarter estimates economic growth via changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Private Domestic Investment (PDI) and government spending components. BEA releases advance, preliminary and final data about one, two and three months after quarter ends, respectively. Do these estimates of economic… Keep Reading

Misleading Mutual Fund Classifications?

Are Morningstar mutual fund profiles accurate? In their October 2019 paper entitled “Don’t Take Their Word For It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds”, Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun examine whether aggregate credit risks of actual of U.S. fixed income (corporate bond) mutual fund portfolios match those presented by Morningstar in respective fund… Keep Reading

Asset Class Return Expectations and Allocations of Sophisticated Investors

What are asset class return expectations and associated portfolio allocations of very sophisticated U.S. investors? In their February 2019 paper entitled “The Return Expectations of Institutional Investors”, Aleksandar Andonov and Joshua Rauh analyze disclosures of expected returns across asset classes among U.S. public pension funds, which hold assets of about $4 trillion (see the first… Keep Reading

Hold Stocks Only After All-time Market Highs?

A subscriber asked for verification of the finding in “Is Buying Stocks at an All-Time High a Good Idea?” that it is not only a good idea, but a great one, including comparison to a moving average crossover rule. To investigate, we use the S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the U.S. stock market… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/18/19 – 11/22/19

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/18/19 through 11/22/19. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.