October 24, 2025 - Economic Indicators
The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2025. The actual total (core) inflation rate is very slightly higher than (very slightly lowerthan) forecasted.
October 24, 2025 - Calendar Effects, Gold
Do gold and gold mining stocks exhibit exploitable seasonality? Using monthly closes for spot gold and the S&P 500 Index since December 1974, PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU) since December 1983, AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) since June 1996 and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) since November 2004, all through September 2025, we find that:
October 23, 2025 - Aesthetic Investments
How should investors think about the risks and returns of music royalties, which have become transparent in the streaming era, as an asset class? In their September 2025 paper entitled “Music as an Asset Class”, Sasha Stoikov, Aadityaa Singla, Umu Cetin and Luis Alonso Cendra Villalobos test three discounted cash flow (DCF) models on transactions… Keep Reading
October 22, 2025 - Big Ideas
The Sharpe ratio is the most widely used measure of investment efficiency. Is it truly reliable? In their September 2025 paper entitled “How to Use the Sharpe Ratio”, Marcos Lopez de Prado, Alexander Lipton and Vincent Zoonekynd review the shortcomings of conventional Sharpe ratio analysis and tackle these issues via several corrections. They also address… Keep Reading
October 21, 2025 - Animal Spirits, Equity Premium
How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on supplying renewable energy perform? To investigate, we consider nine of the largest renewable energy ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) Invesco Solar (TAN) First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (QCLN) Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW) ALPS Clean Energy (ACES) Invesco Global Clean… Keep Reading
October 20, 2025 - Currency Trading, Gold
Will bitcoin replace gold as the pre-eminent safe haven asset? In his September 2025 paper entitled “Gold and Bitcoin”, Campbell Harvey compares and contrasts bitcoin and gold as alternative safe haven assets. Based on gold and bitcoin past returns and characteristics/risks, he concludes that:
October 17, 2025 - Miscellaneous
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/13/25 through 10/17/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
October 17, 2025 - Gold
Where is gold price going? In their September 2025 paper entitled “Understanding Gold”, Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey examine the investment characteristics of gold, its reliability as a hedging asset and the reasons why gold price is currently so high. Using data for gold, inflation, U.S. Treasuries, equities, commodities, reserve bank holdings and gold exchange-traded… Keep Reading
October 16, 2025 - Economic Indicators
Conventional wisdom holds that a steep yield curve (wide U.S. Treasuries term spread) is good for stocks, while a flat/inverted curve is bad. Is this wisdom correct and exploitable? To investigate, we consider in-sample tests of the relationships between several yield curve metrics and future U.S. stock market returns and two out-of-sample signal-based tests. Using… Keep Reading
October 15, 2025 - Bonds, Equity Premium, Strategic Allocation
Do target retirement date funds, offering glidepaths that shift asset allocations away from equities and toward bonds as target dates approach, safely generate attractive returns? To investigate, we consider seven such mutual funds offered by Vanguard, as follows: Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 Fund (VTWNX) Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 Fund (VTTVX) Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund… Keep Reading