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Investing Research Articles

2963 Research Articles

Tactical Signals from a Gold/Silver Ratio?

Can investors holding a position in gold as inflation hedge/equity crash protection improve performance of this position by shifting to silver when the gold-to-silver ratio is high? To investigate, we track the ratio of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) price to iShares Silver Trust (SLV) price and look to switch from GLD to SLV while the… Keep Reading

Alternative Yield Discount (Inflation) Rates

…the PCE-based inflation rate may be a very slightly better indicator for the stock earnings yield than the total BLS inflation rates.

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 2/8/21 – 2/12/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/8/21 through 2/12/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Testing the 3-ETF Strategy

A subscriber asked for a performance comparison between 50% Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value-50% Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) equal-weighted top two (EW Top 2), rebalanced monthly (SACEVS-SACEMS 50-50), and the following monthly rebalanced allocations to three exchange-traded funds (3-ETF): 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI). 30% Vanguard… Keep Reading

Only One Way to Win?

Why have so many quantitative funds performed poorly in recent years? In his January 2021 paper entitled “The Quant Crisis of 2018-2020: Cornered by Big Growth”, David Blitz examines in detail recent (June 2018 through August 2020) performance of stock portfolios constructed from five widely accepted long-short factors: Size – Small Minus Big (SMB) market… Keep Reading

Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Update/Extension

“Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” investigates performances of simple momentum trading strategies for the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) executed with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR): Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Consumer Staples… Keep Reading

Personal Saving Rate and the Stock Market

Is public saving rate a leading indicator of the stock market? Arguably, an increase (decrease) in saving rate means a shift away from (toward) consumption, corporate earnings and associated stock value. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases seasonally adjusted Personal Saving Rate (PSR) monthly with a lag of about one month for initial release… Keep Reading

Disposable Personal Income and the Stock Market

A reader asked: “Is disposable income a leading indicator of the stock market?” Arguably, an increase in disposable income could spur consumption, corporate earnings and associated stock values. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases seasonally adjusted Disposable Personal Income (DPI) monthly with a lag of about one month for initial release and two additional… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 2/1/21 – 2/5/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/1/21 through 2/5/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Update on Classic Portfolio Allocations with Leveraged ETFs

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) as building blocks for long-term portfolios? In his January 2021 presentation package entitled “One Year Later. Leveraged ETFs in Portfolio Construction and Portfolio Protection”, Mikhail Smirnov updates multi-year performance of a monthly rebalanced partially 3X-leveraged portfolio consisting of: 40% ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) 20% Direxion Daily 20+ Year… Keep Reading