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Investing Research Articles

3182 Research Articles

Measuring the Size Effect with Capitalization-based ETFs

Do popular capitalization-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer a reliable way to exploit an equity size effect? To investigate, we look at the difference in returns (small minus big) between: iShares Russell 2000 Index (Smallcap) Index (IWM), and SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for these ETFs during May 2000 (limited by IWM)… Keep Reading

Growth Versus Value and Interest Rates

In his 2007 book The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing, expert Louis Navellier hypothesizes that growth (value) stocks tend to do relatively better when interest rates are rising (falling). Growth stocks benefit from the economic expansions associated with rising rates. Value stocks benefit from refinancing opportunities as… Keep Reading

Stock Returns Around Easter

Does the seasonal shift marked by the Easter holiday, with the U.S. stock market closed on the preceding Good Friday, produce anomalous returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index before and after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the S&P 500 index for 1950-2021 (72 events), we find… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 4/4/22 – 4/8/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/4/22 through 4/8/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

XHB Lead the Broad Stock Market?

Do stocks of homebuilders, whose sales are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, reliably lead the overall stock market. To check, we look at lead-lag relationships between monthly returns for SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and returns for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Using monthly dividend-adjusted returns for XHB and SPY during February 2006… Keep Reading

Housing Starts and Future Stock Market/REIT Returns

Each month, the Census Bureau announces and the financial media report U.S. housing starts as a potential indicator of future U.S. stock market returns. Release date is about two weeks after the month being reported. New releases may substantially revise recent past releases, so that the Census Bureau historical data set effectively has a longer lag…. Keep Reading

New Home Sales and Future Stock Market/REIT Returns

Each month, the Census Bureau announces and the financial media report U.S. new home sales as a potential indicator of future U.S. stock market returns. Release date is about three weeks after the month being reported. Moreover, new releases may substantially revise recent past releases, so that the Census Bureau historical dataset effectively has a… Keep Reading

Update on Demographics and the Stock Market

“Return-based Analysis of Demographics as Stock Market Predictor”, building on formal research summarized in “Demographic Headwind for U.S. Stock Market?” and “Classic Research: Demography and the Stock Market”, looks at interactions between U.S. age demographics and U.S. stock market behavior. What does adding a decade of data say? To investigate we look at interactions between:… Keep Reading

NFT Return Behaviors

What are the return behaviors of non-fungible tokens (NFT), which employ blockchain technology to convey ownership of unique digital or physical items? In their March 2022 paper entitled “The Economics of Non-Fungible Tokens”, Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski assemble a comprehensive dataset of NFT transactions (including digital art/media and objects related to virtual… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/28/22 – 4/1/22

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/28/22 through 4/1/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.