Investing Research Articles

Does an allocation to gold truly protect a portfolio from downside risk? In their April 2023 paper entitled “The Golden Rule of Investing”, Pim van Vliet and Harald Lohre examine downside risks for portfolios of stocks (value-weighted U.S. stock market) and bonds (10-year U.S. Treasury notes) with and without gold (bullion) based on real returns… Keep Reading

Is timing of U.S. equity factors broadly and reliably attractive? In their March 2023 paper entitled “Timing the Factor Zoo”, Andreas Neuhierl, Otto Randl, Christoph Reschenhofer and Josef Zechner analyze effectiveness of 39 timing signals applied to 318 known factors. Factors include such categories as intangibles, investment, momentum, profitability, trading frictions and value/growth. Timing signals… Keep Reading

Do popular style-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer a reliable way to exploit the value premium? To investigate, we compare differences in returns (value-minus-growth, or V – G) for each of the following three matched pairs of value-growth ETFs: iShares Russell 2000 (Smallcap) Growth Index (IWO) iShares Russell 2000 (Smallcap) Value Index (IWN) iShares Russell Midcap… Keep Reading

What are the different ways of estimating the equity risk premium, and which one is best? In the March 2023 update of his paper entitled “Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications – The 2023 Edition”, Aswath Damodaran updates a comprehensive overview of equity risk premium estimation and application. He examines why different approaches… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/10/23 through 4/14/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Can expert financial advisors beat the market? ChatGPT responds:

Can surveys of various expert and inexpert groups usefully predict stock market returns? In their March 2023 paper entitled “How Accurate Are Survey Forecasts on the Market?”, Songrun He, Jiaen Li and Guofu Zhou assess abilities of the following three surveys to predict S&P 500 Index returns: The Livingston (LIV) survey of professional forecasters from… Keep Reading

In late 2021, Kiplinger “used TipRanks data to unveil the crème de la crème, as viewed by Wall Street’s analyst community. Each stock currently earns a consensus Strong Buy rating based on opinions from analysts surveyed by TipRanks. Here are 22 of the pros’ highest-conviction stocks to invest in for 2022. As of today, these… Keep Reading

In late 2021, Forbes “queried Morningstar to identify some of the top-performing fund managers, all of whom consistently beat their benchmarks on a longer-term basis over either a three-year, five-year or ten-year period. Forbes spoke with five top portfolio managers overseeing nearly $25 billion in assets. Here are their best stock ideas for the coming… Keep Reading

In his 2007 book The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing, expert Louis Navellier hypothesizes that growth (value) stocks tend to do relatively better when interest rates are rising (falling). Growth stocks benefit from the economic expansions associated with rising rates. Value stocks benefit from refinancing opportunities as… Keep Reading