Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/27/25 through 1/31/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Do annual stock picks from the ChatGPT large language model beat the market? To investigate, we ask ChatGPT to pick the top 10 stocks for each of 2020-2024 based on information available only before each...
How can researchers ensure that large language models (LLM), when tasked with time series forecasting, do not inject look-ahead bias and thereby inflate measured predictive power? In his brief November 2024 paper entitled “Look-Ahead Bias...
A reader asked: “I am wondering how come you have not rated Motley Fool guys. Any insight?” To augment the test of Motley Fool public stock picks in “‘Buy These Stocks for 2019’ Forward Test”,...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/21/25 through 1/24/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Generative large language models (LLM), such as ChatGPT, are best known for conversational summation of complex information. Their use in financial forecasting focuses on discrete news sentiment signals of positive (1), neutral (0) or negative...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/13/25 through 1/17/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Can a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as ChatGPT 4o, materially aid investors in understanding the implications of earnings conference call transcripts? In their December 2024 paper entitled “AI, Investment Decisions, and Inequality”, Alex...
Which price-to-earnings ratio is best for screening stocks? In the November 2024 first version of his paper entitled “Forward Price-Earnings Ratio”, Luca Conrads compares the practical abilities of seven price-to-earnings ratios to predict S&P 500...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/6/25 through 1/10/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Data snooping bias entails the capture of noise in a dataset that is lucky with respect to a research goal, such as high Sharpe ratio for an investment/trading strategy. Snooping may involve discovery via multiple...
Can large language models (LLMs) create financial research? In their December 2024 paper entitled “AI-Powered (Finance) Scholarship”, Robert Novy-Marx and Mihail Velikov describe a process for automatically generating academic finance papers using LLMs and demonstrates...
Are there “trigger” words in risk sections of annual U.S. firm 10-K reports that materially influence buying and selling of associated stocks? In his December 2024 paper entitled “Risky Words and Returns”, Sina Seyfi tests...
Should investors expect end-of-day rebounds in intraday loser stocks? In their November 2024 paper entitled “End-of-Day Reversal”, Amar Soebhag, Guido Baltussen and Zhi Da investigate intraday return reversal among individual stocks during the last 30...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/30/24 through 1/3/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Experimental (researcher-imagined) asset markets provide a controlled environment for testing hypotheses about investor behaviors. Do limits on abilities of researchers to model markets realistically, and researcher incentives/motivations, jeopardize the credibility of associated studies? In their...
How can investors best apply the available array of Large Language Models (LLM) in quantitative strategy development? In his December 2024 paper entitled “The LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street”, William Mann summarizes...
How well have popular stock screens worked over the long term and since 2000? In their December 2024 paper entitled “Formula Investing”, Marcel Schwartz and Matthias Hanauer test four popular stock screening formulas with a...
How can cross-currency equity investors best approach hedging the associated currency exchange risk? In their December 2024 paper entitled “The Best Strategies for FX Hedging”, Pedro Castro, Carl Hamill, John Harber, Campbell Harvey and Otto...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/23/24 through 12/27/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
“Predicting Stock Market Return with Stocks-TIPS Yield Delta” summarizes results of a study finding that deviations of the S&P 500 earnings yield from the real government bond yield, as measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected...
Do deviations of the aggregate stock market earnings yield from the real government bond yield, as measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) coupon yield, predict future stock market returns? In the December 2024...
“Distance Between Fast and Slow Price SMAs and Stock Returns” finds that extreme distance between a 21-trading day simple moving average (SMA21) and 200-trading day simple moving average (SMA200), as applied to individual U.S. stock...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/16/24 through 12/20/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Do investors swing toward optimism around U.S. presidential inauguration days, focusing on future opportunities? Or, does the day remind investors of political uncertainty and conflict? To investigate, we analyze daily returns of the S&P 500...