Recent Investing Research

What lessons are emerging from individual investor use of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models (LLM) as an aid? As a simple exploration, we ask each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini to search for examples of individuals using LLMs to guide investments and provide a very concise set of lessons… Keep Reading

How should investors view financial advice from artificial intelligence (AI) models based on large language models, which have neither finance credentials nor investing track records? In their October 2026 paper entitled “Judge for Yourself: Confidence Beats Accuracy in AI Financial Advice”, Golnaz Bahrami, Anthony Cookson and Austin Moss study advice preferences on Chatbot Arena, where… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/2/26 through 11/6/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to evaluate an active exchange-traded fund (ETF) that “seeks to offer a distinct source of monthly income by selling a 30-barrier put option?” As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and… Keep Reading

In their October 2026 paper entitled “When Price Charts Rhyme: Historical Visual Retrieval for Stock Return Prediction”, Hui Chen, Haoyu Liu, Ke Wu and Dexin Zhou report gross annualized hedge portfolio returns as high as 85% and gross annualized Sharpe ratios as high as 6.37 from strategies that predict returns by matching current price patterns… Keep Reading

Is aggregate net U.S. public company stock buyback activity a useful predictor of U.S. stock market return? To investigate, we: Retrieve Nonfinancial Corporate Business; Corporate Equities; Liability, Transactions and multiply values by -1 as a quarterly aggregate net stock buyback proxy (stock pulled from the market). Retrieve Nonfinancial Corporate Business; Corporate Equities; Liability, Level as… Keep Reading

Is there a material and reliable market capitalization (size) effect among U.S. stocks around the turn-of-the-year (TOTY)? To check, we track cumulative returns from 20 trading days before through 20 trading days after the end of the calendar year for the Russell 2000 Index and the S&P 500 Index since the inception of the Russell… Keep Reading

“Asking Claude to Compete (in Limited Fashion) with SACEMs” asks Claude to form a strategy using the asset universe of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS), while considering both simplicity and avoidance of overfitting. What happens if we relax those considerations? To investigate, we augment the original prompt by following up with: Does… Keep Reading

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for October 2026.

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/26/26 through 10/30/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for November 2026. SACEMS rankings could change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.

Can Claude as a leading representative of large language models, easily beat the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS)? To investigate, we pose the following prompt to Claude: Please take the month-end dividend-adjusted prices in the attached Excel file [the SACEMS universe] and construct the best strategy you can find that: Holds one or more of… Keep Reading