Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/13/26 through 7/17/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Recent Investing Research
Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
Deep Value Stock Selections by AI Panel
Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting for selection of stocks that are deeply undervalued? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt regarding undervalued U.S. stocks: Adopt the persona of a… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
Active U.S. Funds Not Quite So Bad?
The 2024 S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) Scorecard finds that a supermajority of active U.S. funds underperform respective benchmarks. Is that finding representative of investor experience? In the May 2026 draft of their paper entitled “How the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard Understates the Performance of Actively Managed Mutual Funds”, Martijn Cremers, Jon Fulkerson and Timothy Riley… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
Performance of Active U.S. Mutual Funds and ETFs
What do the latest S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) Scorecards say about active management investing expertise? In the “SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2025” Scorecard, Anu Ganti, Davide Di Gioia, Nick Didio and Liam Flaherty review the 2025 performance of active mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF) per the following SPIVA Scorecard principles: Account for discontinued funds,… Keep Reading
Economic Indicators
Inflation Forecast Update
The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is lower than (lower than) forecasted.
Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
Explaining Earnings Announcement Stock Returns Using LLMs
Can artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of large language models (LLM) improve upon existing methods to explain stock returns around earnings announcements? In the June 2026 version of their paper entitled “Assessing the Benefits of Optimized Agentic AI Systems for Asset Pricing”, Ralph Koijen and Bradford Levy employ a a real-time, out-of-sample benchmark for… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
The State of Active ETFs
How should investors think about active exchange-traded funds (ETF)? In their February 2026 paper entitled “The Fast-Growing Market of Active ETFs”, Rachel Li and Nadia Winn review the state of active ETFs. They consider only ETFs offered by investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. They identify active versus passive ETFs based… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 7/6/26 – 7/10/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/6/26 through 7/10/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Equity Premium, Fundamental Valuation, Momentum Investing
When Equity Market Momentum Does and Does Not Work
Under what conditions does equity market time series momentum (TSMOM) work and not work? In their June 2026 paper entitled “Boundaries of Time Series Momentum”, Matti Suominen and Erik Hjalmarsson examine performance of equity market TSMOM across ranges of three valuation metrics: cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), dividend yield and term spread (difference between long-maturity… Keep Reading
Equity Premium, Strategic Allocation
Passive Inflows Killing Active Returns?
Has the strong shift in investor flows from active funds to passive funds unexpectedly contributed to a decline in performance of the former? In her June 2026 paper entitled “Passive Flows, Active Woes: Passive Investing and the Decline of Active Mutual Fund Alpha”, Hannah Unterberg studies whether the secular shift from active to passive investing… Keep Reading
Sentiment Indicators
Summary of Investor Disagreement Research
Considerable research investigates investor disagreement, measured with very different observable metrics (proxies), as an asset return predictor. Is this research coherent? In their June 2026 paper entitled “Measuring Investor Disagreement: Proxies, Pitfalls, and a Path Forward”, Christian Goulding, Campbell Harvey and Hrvoje Kurtović review the body of research on investor disagreement proxies, including those based… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Sentiment Indicators
AI-simulated CFO Sentiment
Can large language models (LLM) simulate market-scale, real-time business sentiment from the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) perspective? In their June 2026 paper entitled “CFOs Meet LLMs”, John Graham, Campbell Harvey and Manish Jha use an LLM (GPT-5.4) to simulate CFOs of specific firms. Simulations involve two prompts for each of 6,075 actual responses to the… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise
Investment Manager Selections by AI Panel
Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as a recommender of investment managers/advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt regarding selection of an investment manager: Assume you are a U.S…. Keep Reading