Recent Investing Research

Which is more important, knowing what direction to trade or knowing when to enter a trade? In his February 2026 paper entitled “Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information”, Joshua Della Vedova decomposes prediction market trade returns into: Directional component – whether the trader predicted the winning outcome. Execution component – entry price relative… Keep Reading

Are there cryptocurrencies that are so alike that they generally track each other and reliably revert whenever they diverge? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Pairs Trading in Crypto”, Sasha Stoikov, Dora Xu, Shijie Shao, Yourui Wang, Tongshu Zhang and Jinxuan Hu show how to identify cryptocurrency pairs with stable relationships and execute mean reversion… Keep Reading

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a slightly lower than (a little lower than) forecasted.

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on data centers, an arguably hot theme, perform? To investigate, we consider four such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF (IDGT) Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR) Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR) Pacer Data and Digital… Keep Reading

“Beat the Market with Hot-Anomaly Switching?” concludes that “a trader who periodically switches to the hottest known anomaly based on a rolling window of past performance may be able to beat the market. Anomalies appear to have their own kind of momentum.” Does momentum therefore work for style-based exchange-traded funds (ETF)? To investigate, we apply… Keep Reading

“Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” investigates performances of simple momentum strategies for the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) executed with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR): Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Consumer Staples Select… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/2/26 through 3/6/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber requested a test of Ray Dalio‘s All Weather (AW) portfolio with different rebalancing frequencies, allocated to exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies as follows: 30% – Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 40% – iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) 15% – iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) 7.5% – SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 7.5% –… Keep Reading

Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios and Portfolio Insurance”, flagged by a subscriber, Mikhail Smirnov and Alexander Smirnov consider several variations of classic stocks/bonds portfolios implemented… Keep Reading

How do returns of different asset classes recently interact with inflation as measured by monthly change in the not seasonally adjusted, all-commodities producer price index (PPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? To investigate, we look at lead-lag relationships between change in PPI and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF)… Keep Reading

A subscriber requested review of the Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio, which assigns equal weights to the total stock market, small-capitalization value stocks, long-term government bonds, short-term government bonds and gold. To investigate, we use the following exchange-traded funds (ETF) as asset class proxies, respectively: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) iShares S&P Small-Cap 600… Keep Reading

“Big 10 Effect?” looks at recent performance of a portfolio that annually picks the 10 NASDAQ stocks with the largest market capitalizations. One reason these firms get big is high past returns. Does a simple momentum strategy, suggested by a subscriber, that at the end of each month picks the Top 5 or Top 10… Keep Reading