Recent Investing Research

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for June 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.

Does breadth of equity sector performance predict overall stock market return? To investigate, we relate next-month stock market return to sector breadth (number of sectors with positive past returns) over lookback intervals ranging from 1 to 12 months. We consider the following nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) offered as Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR):… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked which exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies make the best safe havens for the U.S. stock market as proxied by the S&P 500 Index. To investigate, we test 16 ETFs/funds as potential safe havens: State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond… Keep Reading

Are exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on Initial Public Offerings of stocks (IPO) attractive? To investigate, we consider three of the largest IPO ETFs and one recent Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) ETF, one of which is no longer available, in order of longest to shortest available histories: First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (FPX) –… Keep Reading

Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as U.S. Treasuries selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt regarding the seven U.S. Treasuries exchange-traded funds (ETF) considered in “Treasuries ETFs… Keep Reading

How does the performance of the U.S. stock market compare to that of the aggregated stock markets in the rest of the world over the long run? Is there alternating leadership? To investigate, we use the S&P 500 Index (SP500) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market and the World ex USA Index in… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/18/26 through 5/22/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is systematically selling covered call options on equity indexes, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five equity covered call ETFs: Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) – seeks to track the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM). Global X S&P 500 Covered Call (XYLD) – seeks to track BXM. Global X NASDAQ 100… Keep Reading

Does the informativeness of markets come from wisdom of the crowd or the wisdom of a few? If a few, who are they? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beyond the Wisdom of the Crowd: Concentrated Informed Trading in Earnings Prediction Markets” Wan Chu Cheong and Ane Tamayo examine who makes Polymarket earnings prediction markets… Keep Reading

One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broadly indicates the level of financial markets distress and thereby the tendency of investors to act complacently (when VIX… Keep Reading

Does the Memorial Day holiday signal any unusual U.S. stock market return effects? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from three-day weekends and sometimes the turn of the month. Prior to 1971, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day on May 30. Effective in 1971, Memorial Day became the last Monday in May…. Keep Reading

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) that employ artificial intelligence (AI) to pick assets perform? To investigate, we consider ten such ETFs, eight of which are currently available: Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) – picks U.S. stocks based on a quantitative model that runs on the IBM Watson platform. QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT)… Keep Reading