Investing Research Articles

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/5/23 through 9/8/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Business media and expert commentators sometimes cite the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as an indicator of U.S. economic and stock market health, generally interpreting a jump (drop) in sentiment as good (bad) for future consumption and stocks. The release schedule for this indicator is mid-month for a preliminary reading on the current… Keep Reading

Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news immediately after being elected and do everything in their power to create good news just before ensuing biennial elections. Are… Keep Reading

Do stock prices confirm that firms with high market power maintain profitability during times of high inflation because they can raise prices, while those with low market power cannot? In their August 2023 paper entitled “Stagflationary Stock Returns and the Role of Market Power”, Benjamin Knox and Yannick Timmer study effects of inflation news on… Keep Reading

What is the best way to exploit U.S. federal government tax code allowing capital losses to offset current or future capital gains and up to $3,000 of current regular income? In his August 2023 paper entitled “Tax-Loss Harvesting: A Primer”, Harry Mamaysky discusses many features of tax loss harvesting, selling securities at a loss and… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/28/23 through 9/1/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Referring to commonly used Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold parameter settings, but seeking to avoid exiting rebounds too soon, a subscriber asked about performances of the following four rules as applied to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Buy when daily RSI 14 falls under 30 and hold for six months. Buy when daily RSI… Keep Reading

Should investors trust artificial intelligence (AI) models such as ChatGPT to pick stocks? In their August 2023 paper entitled “ChatGPT-based Investment Portfolio Selection”, Oleksandr Romanko, Akhilesh Narayan and Roy Kwon explore use of ChatGPT to recommend 15, 30 or 45 S&P 500 stocks, with portfolio weights, based on textual sentiment as available to Chat GPT… Keep Reading

Does the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of summer vacations, signal any unusual return effects by refocusing U.S. stock investors on managing their portfolios? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from the turn of the month. To investigate the possibility of short-term effects on stock market returns around Labor Day,… Keep Reading

Is dispersion of stock return forecasts from different machine learning models trained on the same history (as a proxy for variation in human beliefs) a useful predictor of stock returns? In their August 2023 paper entitled “Machine Forecast Disagreement”, Turan Bali, Bryan Kelly, Mathis Moerke and Jamil Rahman relate dispersion in 100 monthly stock return… Keep Reading