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Investing Research Articles

3021 Research Articles

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Stock Market Returns

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) each month generates the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), aggregating monthly inputs from purchasing and supply executives in manufacturing firms across the U.S. regarding new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. ISM releases Manufacturing PMI for a month at the beginning of the following month. Does Manufacturing PMI… Keep Reading

A Few Notes on The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio

In the preface to the 2021 edition of his book, The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio: Get Wise, Get Wealthy…and Get on With Your Life, Alexander Green sets the following goal: “[S]how readers the safest, simplest way to achieve and maintain financial independence. …I’ll cover the investment basics and unite them in a simple, straightforward investment strategy… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 4/26/21 – 4/30/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/26/21 through 4/30/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Are IPO ETFs Working?

Are exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on Initial Public Offerings of stocks (IPO) attractive? To investigate, we consider three of the largest IPO ETFs and one recent Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) ETF, all currently available with moderate trading volumes, in order of longest to shortest available histories: First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (FPX) –… Keep Reading

SPAC Returns

Should investors consider adding Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) Initial Public Offerings (IPO), which boomed in 2020, to their portfolios? In the March 2021 revision of their paper entitled “SPACs”, Minmo Gahng, Jay Ritter and Donghang Zhang examine investor returns on SPACs during the two phases of their lifecycle: SPAC phase– from SPAC IPO to… Keep Reading

GDP Growth and Stock Market Returns

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) each quarter estimates economic growth via changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Private Domestic Investment (PDI) and government spending components. BEA releases advance, preliminary and final data about one, two and three months after quarter ends, respectively. Do these estimates of economic… Keep Reading

Analyst Long-term Earnings Growth Forecasts and Stock Returns

Should investors buy stocks of companies for which analysts have issued very high earnings growth forecasts? In the March 2021 revision of their paper entitled “Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns”, flagged by a subscriber, Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer update and extend prior research on the relationship between analyst long-term… Keep Reading

Effect of Trading Frictions on SACEMS

A subscriber asked about the effect of trading frictions on Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) performance across potential momentum measurement (lookback) intervals, assuming 0.1% one-way frictions for buying and selling exchange-traded funds (ETF). To investigate, we look at the impact of these frictions on the SACEMS Top 1 portfolio, which each month holds… Keep Reading

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 4/19/21 – 4/23/21

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/19/21 through 4/23/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

U.S. Stock Market End-of-Quarter Effect

Does the U.S. stock market have a predictable pattern of returns around ends of calendar quarters? Do funds deploy cash to bid stocks up at quarter ends to boost portfolio values in quarterly reports (with subsequent reversals)? Or, do they sell stocks to raise cash for fund redemptions? Is any end-of-quarter effect distinct from the… Keep Reading