SPY showed little difference in average 126-day total returns after death versus golden crosses (50-day SMA crossing below/above 200-day SMA; Jan 1993–Apr 2025; 15 death, 14 golden crosses); descriptive, not a trading test, with very small subsamples.
"U.S. Stock Market Death Crosses and Golden Crosses" employs long samples to examine behaviors of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index after death crosses and golden crosses, respectively the 50-day simple moving average crossing below and above the 200-day simple moving average. How do the more recent and easily tradable behaviors of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) compare? To investigate, we use daily levels of SPY unadjusted for dividends since inception to identify death and golden crosses. We then apply dividend-adjusted levels of SPY to calculate average cumulative total returns for SPY during the 126 trading days after these crosses. Using daily unadjusted and adjusted levels of SPY from the end of January 1993 through late April 2025, we find that:
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