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Nobel Prize for a Bad Assumption?

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Big Ideas

Does lack of critical assessment of cause and effect undermine reliability of findings in scientific research? In his December 2025 presentation package entitled "Investment Lessons from Cosmology: Draw Your Assumptions Before Your Conclusions", Marcos Lopez de Prado describes how recent developments in cosmology demonstrate the potential power of causal inference to prevent false discoveries in financial research. Based on this demonstration, he concludes that:

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