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Nobel Prize for a Bad Assumption?

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Big Ideas

Key Insight

Lopez de Prado argues that unstated causal assumptions can produce false discoveries, citing the 1998 supernova dark energy finding, challenged in November 2025 by galaxy-age evidence (conceptual; cosmology analogy; no financial backtest or performance metrics).

Does lack of critical assessment of cause and effect undermine reliability of findings in scientific research? In his December 2025 presentation package entitled "Investment Lessons from Cosmology: Draw Your Assumptions Before Your Conclusions", Marcos Lopez de Prado describes how recent developments in cosmology demonstrate the potential power of causal inference to prevent false discoveries in financial research. Based on this demonstration, he concludes that:

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