Bitcoin Price Over the Next Decade

What is the outlook for the price of bitcoin over the next decade? In their August 2025 paper entitled “Bitcoin Supply, Demand, and Price Dynamics”, Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter model the price evolution of bitcoin based on its fixed potential supply of 21 million coins and plausible demand growth and execution behavior. Specifically, they project bitcoin price and market capitalization through April 2036 via Monte Carlo simulation that randomly samples values for five key variables: (1) market demand; (2) investment preferences; (3) withdrawal sensitivity; (4) initial liquid supply; and, (5) daily withdrawal levels from liquid supply. They choose baseline parameter values using defensible estimates and tests of parameter combinations. They further explore supply and demand shocks by assuming that there is a July 2030 hack that steals and sells 968,000 bitcoin in a single day, with attendant suppression of demand. Using the price of bitcoin on July 29, 2025 for calibration, they find that: (more…)