Speculator Attention and Bitcoin Return

Speculator level of interest (attention) is plausibly key to bitcoin price behavior. Does the level of online searching for “bitcoin” as a proxy for attention usefully predict bitcoin return? To investigate, we examine interactions between monthly worldwide search intensity for “bitcoin” as measured by Google Trends to represent speculator attention and monthly bitcoin returns. Using monthly Google Trends data starting September 2014 (inception of source price tracking) as retrieved on 7/29/2025 and end-of-month bitcoin prices during September 2014 through most of July 2025, we find that: (more…)