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KCFSI as a Stock Market Return Predictor

Posted in Economic Indicators

A subscriber suggested the Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) as a potential U.S. stock market return predictor. This index "is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 financial market variables. A positive value indicates that financial stress is above the long-run average, while a negative value signifies that financial stress is below the long-run average. Another useful way to assess the current level of financial stress is to compare the index to its value during past, widely recognized episodes of financial stress." The paper "Financial Stress: What Is It, How Can It Be Measured, and Why Does It Matter?" describes the 11 financial inputs for KCFSI and its methodology, which involves monthly demeaning of inputs, monthly normalization of the overall indicator to have historical standard deviation one and principal component analysis. This process changes past values in the series, perhaps even changing their signs. Is KCFSI useful for U.S. stock market investors? To investigate, we relate monthly S&P 500 Index returns to monthly values of, and changes in, KCFSI. Per the KCFSI release schedule, we use the market close on the first trading day of the month after the 7th for calculations. Using monthly data for KCFSI and the S&P 500 Index during February 1990 (limited by KCFSI) through May 2019, we find that:

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