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Mohamed El-Erian: Predictions and Track Record

How accurate are Mohamed El-Erian’s predictions?

As of Nov 13, 2026, of 14 counted market calls by Mohamed El-Erian since 2022, 5 were right (36%). Too few for a grade (20 needed).

Grade
–
Right
36%
Counted calls
14

How calls are graded

Track record

14 counted calls
202220232024202520264,0006,0008,000Jan 3, 2022: bearish, wrongFeb 6, 2022: bearish, rightMar 3, 2022: bearish, rightMar 3, 2022: bearish, wrongMay 2, 2022: bearish, rightJun 2, 2022: bearish, wrongJul 5, 2022: bullish, wrongAug 1, 2022: bearish, rightSep 2, 2022: bearish, wrongNov 3, 2023: bullish, rightNov 14, 2025: bearish, wrongMay 1, 2026: bearish, wrongJun 2, 2026: bearish, wrongJun 11, 2026: bearish, wrong
S&P 500 daily close since January 2022, log scale, as of Nov 13, 2026. Triangle up: bullish; down: bearish. Filled: right; hollow: wrong; gray: not yet graded.

Latest predictions

5 most recent
  1. Bearish

    Markets are flying high because a broad-based willingness to keep spending has been matched by an ability to keep doing so. But as more economic participants exhaust… asiaasset.com

    Wrong Came due S&P 500 +3.6%

  2. Bearish

    "While the willingness to shield markets may endure, the capacity to do so is less," he said. finance.yahoo.com

    Wrong Came due S&P 500 +0.8%

  3. Bearish

    "Having ridden an enormously remunerative wave, it may well be time for investors to focus more on relative positioning rather than on extending absolute risk-taking,"… businessinsider.com

    Wrong Came due S&P 500 +3.6%

  4. Bearish

    Top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns the AI bubble will ‘end in tears’ and credit ‘cockroaches’ abound by Nick Lichtenberg fortune.com

    Wrong Came due S&P 500 +1.5%

  5. Bullish

    Look for the market consensus to characterize the just released US jobs report as "Goldilocks" and consistent with a 'soft landing," thereby boosting both #stocks and… ibtimes.com

    Right Came due S&P 500 +13.8%

No predictions open.

All calls

With score and S&P 500 move

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