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Investing Research Articles

2801 Research Articles

A Few Notes on Probability Theory, The Logic of Science

“…[T]he human mind has a predilection for rampant, uncontrolled induction, and it requires much education to overcome this.”

A Few Notes on Reinventing The Bazaar, A Natural History of Markets

“The variables that economists have found to be associated with increases in per capita income, to sum up, fall under two headings: investment and institutions.”

Abnormal Returns from Small Stocks with Good Prospects

…hidden gems (unlike hidden lumps of coal) generally do not want to be hidden. The best small firms solicit analyst coverage to get investor attention.

Challenging the Value Premium

…the empirical foundation for value investing may not be as sound as generally thought.

Trading Signals from Retail Investor Behavior

…if you want to make money following the retail investor herd, you have to get in and out within weeks. For longer-term outperformance, bet against the herd.

Jason Kelly on Market Timing

Guru Grades ranks a group of 29 stock market experts according to our assessments of the accuracy of their stock market forecasts. Since Jason Kelly has been at or near the top of the list, we asked him to encapsulate his thinking on stock market timing in a short piece for this blog. What makes… Keep Reading

The After-January Effect?

In case you are sick of hearing about the January effect…

Give Me Your Money Because…

…the advertising of financial firms seeks to tap investor sentiment, a lagging indicator of stock market action, not investor rationality. These appeals encourage trend-following rather than contrarian behavior.

Are Some Shorts Smarter Than Others?

…large short sellers generally know what they are doing. A rapid increase in short interest indicates abnormally low returns over the near term.

The Decline of Stock Picking?

…investors everywhere have increasingly embraced modern portfolio theory, emphasizing risk management (diversification) over stock picking. The best opportunities for (diligent) stock pickers are the stocks of young, small, obscure, foreign firms.