S&P 500 Quarterly Aggregate Earnings Estimate Evolutions
January 7, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
…recent S&P 500 aggregate bottoms-up earnings growth estimates have often been highly variable and substantially inaccurate.
January 7, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
…recent S&P 500 aggregate bottoms-up earnings growth estimates have often been highly variable and substantially inaccurate.
January 2, 2009 - Individual Gurus
…investors should not expect the typical “expert” to outperform a simple extrapolation of the long-term trend in forecasting the level of a broad stock market index one year ahead.
December 19, 2008 - Buybacks-Secondaries
…evidence for the management compensation (rather than reward for shareholders) motivation for open market stock buybacks is mounting, causing investors to pay less attention to buybacks.
December 16, 2008 - Fundamental Valuation, Political Indicators
…stock market P/E and presidential approval rating are significantly intertwined.
December 15, 2008 - Volatility Effects
…stock pickers may want to focus on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility.
December 12, 2008 - Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
…new mutual funds appear to enjoy initial outperformance by taking on innovative risk.
December 10, 2008 - Volatility Effects
…gain-loss spread (expected gain minus expected loss) is a simple, intuitive measure of investment risk at least as useful as standard deviation.
December 5, 2008 - Fundamental Valuation
…investors seem to have left the Fed model for dead.
December 4, 2008 - Momentum Investing
…momentum and contrarian ETFs based on long-only partitions of broader indexes might offer individual investors practical and diversified access to the momentum factor, and to the associated longer-term contrarian reversal.
December 3, 2008 - Strategic Allocation
…lifecycle investors will generally achieve greater terminal wealth using interim success-based dynamic stocks/fixed income allocation rules than using pre-determined shifts away from stocks and toward fixed income.