Investing Research Articles

…recent S&P 500 aggregate bottoms-up earnings growth estimates have often been highly variable and substantially inaccurate.

…investors should not expect the typical “expert” to outperform a simple extrapolation of the long-term trend in forecasting the level of a broad stock market index one year ahead.

…evidence for the management compensation (rather than reward for shareholders) motivation for open market stock buybacks is mounting, causing investors to pay less attention to buybacks.

…stock market P/E and presidential approval rating are significantly intertwined.

…stock pickers may want to focus on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility.

…new mutual funds appear to enjoy initial outperformance by taking on innovative risk.

…gain-loss spread (expected gain minus expected loss) is a simple, intuitive measure of investment risk at least as useful as standard deviation.

…investors seem to have left the Fed model for dead.

…momentum and contrarian ETFs based on long-only partitions of broader indexes might offer individual investors practical and diversified access to the momentum factor, and to the associated longer-term contrarian reversal.

…lifecycle investors will generally achieve greater terminal wealth using interim success-based dynamic stocks/fixed income allocation rules than using pre-determined shifts away from stocks and toward fixed income.