Investing Research Articles

…VIX signals are useful for short-term switching between small-capitalization and large-capitalization stock indexes, especially when VIX is historically high.

…even though they outperform in aggregate, less than half of equity hedge funds outperform broad stock market indexes.

…the author forecasts annual worldwide equity returns in the high single digits over the coming decade.

…Barchart.com generally leans a little the wrong way with respect to near term aggregate stock market action. This tendency is probably too weak to be tradable. Its indicators appear to overweight (underweight) the trend-following (reversal) nature of the market.

…persistent outperformance in investing depends on the hard work of developing and applying valuable private information, not on reacting to what everyone else knows.

…hedge fund industry net risk-adjusted returns are unremarkable and declining. The flow of new money to hedge funds may pressure hedge fund managers to take greater risks.

…separating stock returns into those driven by changes in cash flow and those driven by changes in the discount rate helps explain the size effect and the value premium.

…global integration is rapidly shifting the balance of diversification power from countries to industries (for investors who adhere to modern portfolio theory).

…neither change in aggregate earnings nor the inflation rate alone is a good concurrent indicator for the overall stock market returns on a quarterly basis. However, because earnings growth and inflation are interrelated, they may together help forecast stock market behavior.

…this evidence suggests that the average day trader breaks even and that the most active traders may be the most successful.