"Seasonal Strategy for QQQ?" finds an interesting even year-odd year effect in Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) annual returns. The Trading Calendar and "Monthly Returns During Presidential and Congressional Election Years" find notable differences in S&P 500 Index performances for even years and odd years. A plausible culprit is federal elections. Is this effect growing over time? To investigate, we look at four indexes over their full histories:
- Shiller's S&P Composite Index during 1871 through 2025 (154 annual returns).
- The S&P 500 Index during 1927 through 2025 (98 returns).
- The NASDAQ 100 Index during 1985 through 2025 (40 returns).
- The Russell 200 Index during 1987 through 2025 (38 returns).
For each index, we calculate annual returns for even years and odd years and look at the separate trends in these returns over time. Using the selected end-of-year index levels, we find that:
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