From 2005 through 2012, we collected and graded 6,582 public U.S. stock market forecasts from 68 experts.
Guru Grades is now back, covering U.S. stock market forecasts made starting in 2022. For each guru, we record:
- What the guru forecasted.
- Where and when the forecast was published.
- When it was/is due.
- How it compares with actual subsequent S&P 500 Index performance.
Gurus with at least 20 evaluated forecasts since the beginning of 2022 earn a letter grade from A to F, with each forecast compared to one that contemporaneously predicts that the stock market will go higher.
We tasked Anthropic's Claude with building and running the new version of Guru Grades, modeled on the original study. The Method page explains the rules for the new version. Each guru has a page with their record. Members can see every evaluated forecast.
As of November 13, 2026, 20 of the 42 gurus we are tracking have a grade. Only 41% of 1,179 newly evaluated forecasts are correct, compared to 62% for the always-bullish benchmark. We collect new forecasts and market data daily. There have been 30 to 55 new forecasts per month. The On the Record page lists forecasts not yet evaluated. A guru gets a first letter grade on reaching 20 evaluated forecasts. A letter grade can change any day we evaluate an additional forecast.
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