A reader requested: “I would like to see your grade on FibTimer. They claim to have put up some impressive numbers over the years.”
FibTimer, owned and operated by Market Timing Strategies, Inc., claims to offer “stock market timing strategies [that] produce the most consistent, dependable profits of any mutual fund timing service that we are aware of.” Frank Kollar is the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer, president of Kollar Market Analytics, Inc. and president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc. The two companies apparently operate several other web sites.
While Frank Kollar has published many articles on investing, these articles (such as his “Past Commentaries”) are generally vague and the content therefore difficult to verify. The sample of four past “Email SPX / NDX Reports” offered with the “Past Commentaries” is far too small for statistical inference regarding his timing ability.
The descriptions of the specific strategies offered via FibTimer are too vague to allow independent testing.The performance results claimed for these strategies do not include enough detail on trades or assumptions to allow independent validation.
According to the FibTimer “Terms of Use” [underlining added]:
“Market timing strategies and market timing historical results featured on this web site are the result of research that includes backtesting. Market Timing Strategies, Inc. does not guarantee that future market timing results will be profitable. Anyone who makes investment decisions based on what they read here does so at their own risk and cannot hold Market Timing Strategies, Inc. or any of its employees, responsible.”
Backtesting may introduce data snooping bias (luck) into results and therefore overstate realistic expectations.
There are no references to Frank Kollar within MarketWatch, MSN Money or TheStreet.com.
In summary, there is not enough public information on FibTimer or financial media sites to support due diligence on the investment value of Frank Kollar’s advice.
Prospective subscribers could consider requiring access to Frank Kollar’s investing performance data from a real account before subscribing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a market timing service for mutual funds?
A market timing service for mutual funds, such as FibTimer, offers strategies that claim to signal when to move in and out of the stock market to generate profits. FibTimer, operated by Market Timing Strategies, Inc. and edited by Frank Kollar, describes its strategies as producing the most consistent, dependable profits of any mutual fund timing service it is aware of. These claims are the provider's own and were not independently verified.
Can FibTimer's market timing performance claims be trusted?
FibTimer's performance claims cannot be independently validated because the available information is too limited. The strategy descriptions are too vague to test, and the claimed results lack enough detail on trades and assumptions. The article concludes there is not enough public information to support due diligence on the investment value of Frank Kollar's advice.
How can you verify a market timing newsletter's track record?
Verifying a market timing newsletter's track record requires clear strategy descriptions and detailed trade and assumption data for independent testing, which FibTimer does not provide. A sample of only four past SPX/NDX email reports is far too small for statistical inference about timing ability. The article suggests prospective subscribers consider requiring investing performance data from a real account before subscribing.
Is backtested performance the same as real-account trading results?
Backtested performance is not the same as real-account results, because backtesting may introduce data snooping bias (luck) and overstate realistic expectations. FibTimer's Terms of Use acknowledge its featured strategies and historical results come from research that includes backtesting and that future results may not be profitable. This is why the article suggests requesting performance data from a real account.
What are the risks of subscribing to a market timing service like FibTimer?
The main risk of subscribing to FibTimer is that its claims cannot be verified, since its strategies and results are too vague for independent testing. Its Terms of Use state that Market Timing Strategies, Inc. does not guarantee profitable future results and that users act at their own risk. The article also found no references to Frank Kollar in MarketWatch, MSN Money or TheStreet.com, leaving little outside information for due diligence.