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Misery Index and Future U.S. Stock Market Returns

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Economic Indicators

Does the Misery Index, the sum of the U.S. total inflation rate and the U.S. unemployment rate, predict U.S. stock market returns? To investigate, we relate monthly Misery Index and monthly change in Misery Index to monthly S&P 500 Index (SP500) returns. Using monthly Misery Index level and monthly SP500 level during January 1948 (limited by the Misery Index) through June 2021, we find that:

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