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Posts Tagged ‘Guru’

How About Mike Paulenoff?

A reader asked: “Do you know of Mike Paulenoff? Have you reviewed him?” Mike Paulenoff‘s web site is MPTrader.com, “a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff’s trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon…” Keep Reading

John Buckingham’s Prudent Speculations?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here stock market forecasts of John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer of Al Frank Asset Management, who emphasizes careful stock selection, broad diversification and a long investing horizon. He is editor of the Prudent Speculator and author of The Buckingham Report (as much promotional as informative). The few forecasts found, starting in May 2002, come directly from The Buckingham Report and indirectly from articles at Forbes.com, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com and CNNMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Norman Fosback’s Performance?

A reader asked: “Do you have any data and/or analysis of Norman G. Fosback’s performance?” Keep Reading

Jon Markman Speculates

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here commentary from Jon Markman’s past articles at MSN Money through early 2010 and from his “Speculations” column at MarketWatch.com since May 2010. Jon Markman is the founder of Markman Capital Insight LLC, which “provides unbiased, unvarnished and up-to-the-minute information, analysis and leadership on the equity and credit markets to thousands of customers worldwide.” There are many additional, older articles by Jon Markman at MSN Money, but the search capabilities there make them very difficult to extract and organize. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Bob Hoye: Rational Fringe?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Bob Hoye via “Pivotal Events” commentary at SafeHaven. Bob Hoye is Editor & Chief Investment Strategist of Institutional Advisors, which states that: “The term ‘Rational Fringe’ has been used to distinguish our research from the mainstream convictions that financial history was random and could be managed by inspired manipulation of interest rates. Our models are based upon a thorough review of the highly volatile conclusions of 5 previous new financial eras. This provides forecasts of significant trend changes with enough lead time to formulate strategy.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Robert Drach, Trading with 95% Confidence?

A reader asked about Robert Drach’s “Basic Timing” Model Portfolio, initiated on 5/5/95 with the objective of demonstrating that market timing can beat the S&P 500 Index. The self-assessment of this portfolio (as of 8/19/09) reports 399 closed positions with an 89.7% win rate. The average closed position yields a 7.22% gain over 205 calendar days for an annualized return of 12.9%. The cumulative portfolio gain is 129%, compared to 93% for the S&P 500 Index. These cumulative returns “…are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings… They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else.” Robert Drach is publisher of the “Drach Weekly Research Report” (no web site). As explained in an article by Jon Markman, “he scales into stocks only when he believes there is a 95% likelihood of a successful result. …He focuses on buying only from a master list of 80 large stocks [with decent earnings predictability] that hasn’t changed much over the years.” Do Robert Drach’s results demonstrate market timing ability? We can address this question approximately by measuring the correlation of his cash balance (from the Cash Balance Ledger) with stock market returns. Using this cash balance data and contemporaneous S&P 500 Index data for the period 5/5/95-7/31/09 (171 months or about 14 years), we find that: Keep Reading

Jim Puplava Erupts

We evaluate here the market commentary of Jim Puplava at Financial Sense Online for February 2002 (the earliest available) through October 2005, at which point he stopped posting regular written commentaries archive. Jim Puplava is president of of Puplava Financial Services Inc., an investment advisory and money management firm, and Puplava Securities Inc., a broker-dealer. He is also the host of Financial Sense Newshour. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

Mark Skousen’s Claims So “Wild” They Might Be True?

A reader noted and asked:

“I’m on an email list of many gurus these days, but the claims that Mark Skousen makes are incredible — so ‘wild’ that I’m wondering if they might actually be true?! He promises to turn $10,000 into $442,000 in seven months.”

While there are implications (such as “Every $5,000 invested could have turned into $60,000 in a just a few weeks.”), there is not enough information at MarkSkousen.com to assess realistic performance of his advice and recommendations. Some credibility checks include: Keep Reading

Alan Newman’s Crosscurrents Stock Market Forecasts

A reader requested a test of the stock market forecasts/targets at the end of the archived “Pictures of a Stock Market Mania” articles at Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, which promises ” powerful commentary and unique perspectives that cannot be found anywhere else.” Using the forecasts for the S&P 500 index from the 40 archived articles spanning 2/24/01 through 3/15/09, along with contemporaneous actual S&P 500 index data, we find that: Keep Reading

Robert McHugh: Caution Is Warranted?

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering conservative and aggressive investment strategies in prosperous times.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

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