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U.S. Stock Market Performance by Intra-year Phase

Steve LeCompte | | Posted in: Calendar Effects

The full-year Trading Calendar indicates that the U.S. stock market has three phases over the calendar year, corresponding to calendar year trading days 1-84 (January-April), 85-210 (May-October) and 211-252 (November-December). What are typical stock market returns and return variabilities for these phases? Using daily S&P 500 Index closes from the end of December 1927 through December 2025, we find that:

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