Do stocks of homebuilders, whose sales are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, reliably lead the overall stock market? To check, we look at lead-lag relationships between monthly returns for SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Using monthly dividend-adjusted returns for XHB and SPY during February 2006 (inception of XHB) through July 2025, we find that:
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