Can investors extract an edge from prediction markets such as Kalshi, the first (2021) Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange that trades on outcomes of future events including consumer price index (CPI), federal funds rate (FFR), gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment? In their February 2026 paper entitled "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets", Anthony Diercks, Jared Katz and Jonathan Wright evaluate the accuracy of Kalshi forecasts, with comparisons to outputs of traditional survey and market-implied forecasts. They further examine how Kalshi forecast distributions respond to economic news. Using high-frequency Kalshi prediction contract data for a broad set of economic variables during 2022-2025, they find that:
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