Are prediction markets better at forecasting firm earnings than professional analysts? In their April 2026 paper entitled "Beating the Earnings Game: Why Do Prediction Markets Outperform Professional Analysts?", Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi Shao and Che Zhang investigate whether and, if so, why a blockchain-based prediction market such as Polymarket outperforms professional analysts in forecasting U.S. stock earnings. The earnings predictions of this market are public and unchangeable contracts, taking the form:
"Will [Company] beat earnings for [Quarter] [Fiscal Year]?"
relative to analyst consensus as of contract creation date. Using data for 469 Polymarket firm-quarter earnings beat contracts, corresponding analyst earnings forecast data and associated daily stock prices during September 2025 through February 2026, they find that:
Subscribe to Keep Reading
Get the research edge serious investors rely on.
- 1,200+ research articles
- Monthly strategy signals
- 20+ years of backtested analysis
Cancel anytime