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Curt Hesler: Being Cautious

| Last Updated: August 1, 2012 | Posted in: Individual Gurus

Guru Accuracy Rating
This is below average. Current guru average is 47%

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Curt Hesler since January 2003. Curt Hesler has published Professional Timing Service since 1978, noting that: “One thing I have learned is that you must be cautious to be successful.” He makes past issues of his bi-monthly newsletter, usually including an outlook for broad U.S. stock market indexes, available on a delayed basis. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:

  • Curt Hesler comments regularly on multiple asset classes, including precious metals, energy sector stocks and commodities, the dollar, broad U.S. equities and real estate. This review focuses exclusively on his outlook for the broad U.S. stock market.
  • This review considers only the beginning-of-the-month newsletter issues, skipping those with no outlook for the U.S. stock market. His views on the U.S. stock market have been predominantly negative over the entire sample period.
  • Curt Hesler combines fundamental and technical analysis in forming his outlook for U.S. stocks, emphasizing the former for the longer term and the latter for the shorter term. He frequently cites the best/worst six months of the year for timing and the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold price for valuation.
  • His comments on the U.S. stock market are generally clear, but sometimes complicate grading by addressing multiple horizons.
  • Curt Hesler’s forecast sample is moderate in size, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is also moderate.

See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.

    S&P 500 Index  
Date Comments from:  Curt Hesler via protiming.com 21-Day Return 63-Day Return 126-Day Return 254-Day Return  
8/1/12 I am looking for the stock market as represented by the popular averages to fall from here. 1.8% 2.7% 10.0% 22.9%
6/1/12 My cyclical work indicates that the popular averages should find some temporary footing about mid June and rally into late July. …Beyond a short term trading rally, there is more trouble in store this year for financial/paper assets . 6.8% 10.4% 10.8% 28.6% 0
5/1/12 Cyclical market forces continue to point to lower prices into year end; but, of course, cycles are not well-behaved at times. Nonetheless, negative cyclical aspects warrant caution. -6.8% -1.5% 0.4% 15.7%
4/2/12 For all intents and purposes, there is little to expect from here on the up side. …At some point – I think after the Dow falls to 6,000 or less, perhaps much less – the public will give up. Then the final crash will come in full as they panic out at the next bear market lows. The entire process will take perhaps two years or more. -1.2% -4.0% 1.5% 10.5%
3/1/12 My longer term cyclical work indicates we should be wary of an important high forming in the popular averages this month. …we are approaching a time frame where my work says stock investors should be extremely cautious. …I frankly do not look for a repeat 2008-type crash in 2012, but I do expect the beginning of the next bear leg. …The Dow will fall to 6,000, with 4,000 to 5,000 a distinct possibility. The whole process could take two years from top to bottom. There will be a panic, but not until the very end. 2.5% -4.4% 2.6% 12.4%
2/1/12 My expectation, based on some long term cyclical models, is to see the next major high this March (next month). 3.4% 6.2% 4.2% 14.2%
1/2/12 My cyclical guess is to see a stock market high in March… In a nutshell, I look for…a lower stock market overall. 3.8% 11.1% 6.9% 14.1%
12/1/11 My general caveat to avoid the stock market and other paper intangible assets remains intact. …the popular averages will assume higher risk as we approach next
2.6% 10.0% 2.7% 13.6%
11/1/11 …prices continue to roller coaster with a downward bias.  I expect we will have to put up with this until next spring when I look for a major high to set in, followed by the next leg in the secular bear market that began in 2000. 2.2% 8.7% 15.1% 17.2%
10/4/11 I expect to see the stock market averages continue the choppy pattern they have been in for the last couple of months. I look for this to continue into March of 2012 when a major top will occur.  This coming top need not be a new high or even that much higher than today’s market.  It will be “major” because of the decline that will follow. 10.1% 13.6% 25.8% 30.0%
8/1/11 …the secular bear will get in gear next year… I am looking for a significant top in late February early March and then hard down for the rest of the year. -5.8% -0.2% 2.0% 6.1%
7/1/11 My expectations for the popular averages are to see them on a roller coaster path, rallying and declining with a downward bias over the next nine months. …the optimum short selling time will come next year.  My work is beginning to see 2012 as very bearish. -6.4% -13.4% -5.7% 2.1% +
6/1/11 …, there is little left to gain from the popular averages and a lot of potential for losses.  I would not be surprised to see this play out with a peak in the averages soon and then a drawn out downward-trending roller coaster ride through the end of the year.  I expect to see the popular averages close the year lower than the highs set in June and July… My work is pointing to 2012 as being the year when the stock market bear catches its second wind and heads toward the lower end of the bear market range…  That should ultimately end up being somewhere near 6,000 or lower in the Dow Industrials. 0.5% -7.9% -9.3% -2.8% +
5/1/11 …the stock market…looks downright scary. -3.4% -5.1% -5.6% 2.2% +
4/4/11 After some two years of positive market action punctuated by a few months of corrective activity, one should be looking for a protracted decline. …the popular averages is carrying a lot of risk here. 1.1% 0.5% -15.1% 4.9% +
3/1/11 …the risk/reward aspects of investing in the Dow, the S&P 500, or other financial assets do not favor the investor at this point. 1.7% 1.9% -9.9% 4.8% +
1/3/11 Clearly, caution is warranted, especially if prices continue to grope somewhat higher near term.  The red flags are out. 2.5% 4.8% 5.3% 0.7%
12/1/10 Be wary now of the stock market. This market is like a castle built on a frozen lake. The thaw will come. …Currently, we have a trade on in the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF… 1.8% 8.5% 9.0% 3.2%
11/1/10 …the market looks dangerous. 1.8% 8.6% 14.9% 4.5%
10/1/10 I still remain guarded about the outlook for October… If you are not bearish going into October, at least be cautious. A correction of some magnitude is due. 3.3% 9.7% 15.7% -1.9%
9/2/10 …the general trend of the market will be to the down side, at least until the end of the year. A near term bounce aside, you should expect the market will be lower by the end of September with further weakness in October. The October decline will be savage and will accelerate from weakness expected later this month. There is a swoon coming… 4.3% 10.6% 22.1% 6.9%
8/3/10 …with the stock market prone to volatile surprises, it is best not to expect too much… Until we see our way through October and into year end, caution is the best policy. …look for a nice rally from year end 2010 into next year. This rally might even last until July 2011. That will be followed by a rather savage drop into the first quarter of 2012. -3.6% 5.6% 14.8% 7.1% 0
7/7/10 …the summer looks like a loser. My work is pointing toward a low in December that will be followed by at least a tradable rally – one that will last a couple of months and produce some decent gains. …look for a choppy ride down to those late year lows. The secular bear market that we are witnessing has a ways to go. Investors should not look for a new bull market to begin in stocks for several years. …before the next bull cycle in the averages begins, I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 drop below 700. 6.2% 7.2% 20.0% 26.7%
6/3/10 I am looking for a secondary rally into a top in June. …I don’t look for any big numbers on the up side. …There will be no new highs in the averages. The highs are in, perhaps for another 10 years. …expect we will see a decent low in the markets this December… -7.3% -4.9% 7.0% 16.6%
5/3/10 …we are approaching a reversal of fortune. The market is vulnerable. …The stock market is not going to like such uncertainty, and this year’s worst six-month period for stock market performance is just beginning. -8.6% -8.4% -1.5% 12.1% +
3/1/10 The fingers of instability continue to extend through the popular averages. I have gone on and on for months about negative omens. They are still everywhere. 5.2% -1.1% -6.1% 17.3% +
2/3/10 Although the rally keeps going and our timing models remain positive, the move is getting longer in the tooth each trading day, and that puts us closer to a correction, at the very least. 3.8% 7.0% 2.1% 19.5% 0
1/4/10 The stock market is still in a secular bear, and it will be for at least another 5 to 10 years. There is more downside adjustment to come. The counter-trend rally in the stock market that began last March has little time left in it. …The best way to play this out is to…be well protected with sell stops… -3.2% 4.8% -9.7% 12.7% +
12/2/09 There is no way you can paint a bullish picture from these tried and true technical indicators. 2.1% 1.2% -0.6% 10.3%
11/3/09 I think the rally is over. …I caution you against buying into any bullish arguments you hear on the Street. Any last ditch rally attempt here would be a great place to lighten up on paper-based positions you might still hold, or at least tighten up your stops. Due to the “stretch” in this rally from prices persistently moving higher while ignoring cyclical and technical extremes, the next decline may be savage. 5.2% 5.0% 11.5% 17.3%
10/1/09 My work continues to forecast new lows in the averages – below those set last March – as the next bear phase develops. 0.6% 9.4% 14.4% 12.7%
9/2/09 …the signs are there that the end of this rally is approaching. You should be preparing for that event now. During most years, September is a tough month to make money. I don’t envision this September as being any different. October may come to bear with more import. …the potential for serious weakness is there. Be prepared. …I see a serious downturn in the stock market averages coming soon. 3.1% 11.5% 12.9% 9.8%
8/5/09 My technical work is pointing to an important high this month, and we will likely not see the averages reach these levels again for a long time. …use strength to sell. 0.1% 4.0% 9.4% 12.5%
7/1/09 The second half of July through the first half of August looks unfriendly for the averages. …My near term outlook is for a last ditch try for the June highs and then a sharp decline in the averages this month. This will set up the conditions for a final rally to important highs in August. …the S&P 500 will revisit its March 2009 low, and it will most likely go lower. It has the potential to fall to 400-500… 6.9% 14.9% 22.0% 11.3%
5/5/09 The weather is going to get stormy for a few weeks before the Obama rally moves higher in July. …a decline of, say, 10% or so is to be expected. It is simply time for traders to take some money out of the game… 4.3% 10.9% 14.6% 22.9%
4/2/09 It is time to settle in for some selling. …it is time for prices to cool off before moving higher. I don’t expect this correction to amount to much. …I look for the profit taking to be broad-based. …My bottom line take is that we will see prices back off early this month. The rally will then catch its breath and resume. 8.7% 10.7% 26.7% 41.7%
3/5/09 …we will soon see the beginning of the Obama rally in the popular averages. …By late summer or early fall, the stock market rally will top. …we should see the best levels during August with a possible test of those highs in late September or early October. …the next trip down…will take the averages to new bear market lows, perhaps by year end. 23.4% 36.5% 46.2% 67.1% 0
2/4/09 My cyclical work continues to point to market weakness into about mid-February. At that point, the cycles turn up, indicating higher prices for several months. The market may well work its way higher into August from spring lows. …if you are currently short in the stock market, you should be looking to take profits during further weakness. …With the prospect of a decent, sustained rally facing us, you should also…decide how you will handle the rally. -17.9% 8.6% 20.8% 27.0% +
1/7/09 The averages are coming off the bottom of trading ranges that will persist for another five to seven years. The long term range is bonded by 800 on the down side and 1,500 on the up side for the S&P 500. …I don’t expect any problems until February… -4.2% -10.0% -3.0% 26.5% +
12/3/08 The stock market as measured by the popular averages is not going to have a good year in 2009. 6.5% -21.6% 8.2% 26.7%
11/4/08 I expect to see a decent recovery in the popular averages, lasting into the end of the year. …I expect to see the Dow approach 11,000 and the S&P 500 to seek 1,200. …but once into 2009, …I look for the popular averages to turn back down… The S&P 500 will revisit 800, and perhaps break lower next year. …The average will find a low point – likely around the 700 to 800 level – but it will not respond on the up side as earnings climb. -16.0% -17.3% -8.6% 6.3% 0
10/1/08 You need to gird for more liquidity panics in the market. …I expect the S&P 500 will see 800. That may happen more quickly than one would expect. -17.8% -23.3% -30.1% -10.4% +
9/5/08 The popular averages are at least going to visit their 2002 lows. That puts the Dow Industrials back to 7,000 and the S&P 500 back to 800. …this October could be a doozy. There may be a little more up side here, but it would be best to not wait too long before taking appropriate defensive action. -14.9% -29.9% -45.0% -16.8% +
7/3/08 The S&P 500 will be trapped between 1,500 and 800 – perhaps for 10 years. Regardless of recent weakness, it is still closer to the top of that range than the bottom. -1.1% -8.1% -28.5% -30.4% +
6/5/08 I expect the S&P 500 will trade between 1,600 at the extreme up side and 800 on the down side for the next 7 to 10 years. We are closer to the top of that trading range than the bottom, and the economy is certainly still on shaky ground. I think we will see another shoe drop in the financial sector … Lehman Brothers perhaps? -10.8% -9.2% -39.5% -32.9% +
5/1/08 I see the stock market averages trading in a wide trading range for perhaps as long as another 10 years. …the S&P 500 with an expectation of trading essentially between 1,550 and 800. …Note that we are currently closer to the top of that range than the bottom. -2.0% -9.2% -33.5% -36.1% +
4/2/08 The stock market, as measured by the popular averages, is looking very tired. I expect more panic selloffs… The stock market’s best days ended in October. 3.4% -6.4% -19.1% -38.4% +
3/6/08 The S&P will eventually fall to 800… 5.2% 5.6% -2.3% -44.8% +
2/1/08 We will see more panic selloffs in the averages… There is not going to be a new bull market in stocks. -4.9% 1.3% -9.2% -40.4% +
12/5/07 It is the end of the third year in the Presidential cycle, and the Thanksgiving to New Year period is normally bullish for stocks. The “best six months” time frame officially started when MACD turned positive in the S&P on November 29. This does not mean we are facing a new bull market, but during the “best six month” period of the year, we seldom see any serious trouble in the market. -4.6% -12.2% -5.5% -38.7%
10/3/07 The averages look precarious, and we may be seeing double tops forming. We will simply stick with our long trading positions…until the model tells us to bail out. With October – the “killer month” – already here, this sell could be rather significant. -2.0% -6.0% -11.1% -31.4% 0
9/5/07 It looks like a bear is coming on. It is typical to see a bear market start with a sharp break… It remains to be seen what this October will bring; but if you are holding financial type assets, I suggest you err on the side of caution. 4.8% 0.0% -9.4% -13.9% +
5/2/07 It may well be that the liquidity the Fed has been creating is inflating a bubble in the stock market again. …Although the Dow has reached a new high, the Nasdaq has only regained 50% of the losses it suffered in the early 2000’s. This is a full-sized red flag. 2.7% -2.7% 3.0% -5.2% +
4/5/07 …we have not found a reason to abandon the Rydex short fund position we took at the beginning of last year’s worst six-month period. If we liquidated our short funds, we would be about 6% behind, but the potential in this position is greater now as the worst six-month period approaches. 4.4% 5.7% 6.6% -6.2%
2/6/07 …the S&P 500 feels a lot like the Nasdaq felt in 1999. It moves relentlessly higher, but the technical numbers look grave and foreboding. Maybe it is a new paradigm, but I doubt it. We have heard that before. Gravity still exists, and there is a comeuppance in the market’s future somewhere. -3.2% 4.1% 1.4% -8.1% +
1/4/07 The stock market does not look good to me. It looks and feels like early 1973 all over again – a nice recovery at year end, a break in prices to new highs in the Dow, and the bottom falling out suddenly. … Under the best of circumstances, we should at least see a drop to 1,320. 2.0% 1.5% 7.5% -2.0%
12/1/06 …this would not be the place to buy the popular averages. …Virtually every popular average looks like a better sell than a buy. 1.5% -0.1% 9.6% 7.9%
11/2/06 …we have not pulled the trigger on switching out of the Rydex short funds and going long. 3.1% 5.8% 10.3% 7.9%
10/5/06 The stock market does not look good from here. …My expectation is to see a drop in the averages… 0.8% 4.2% 6.8% 15.5%
9/7/06 Follow the best/worst six months program. It has been 50%invested in the Rydex Inverse OTC Fund (RYAIX) and 50% in the Inverse S&P Fund (RYURX) since the program issued a signal on May 12. The next signal will most likely occur in October or November. Near term, …September is often a very bad month for the market. 4.3% 9.3% 8.4% 13.7%
8/10/06 The stock market looks very, very tired…with the worst months still ahead. I can’t remember a September that was kind to the market, and October is when the big massacres usually happen. 2.2% 8.7% 13.1% 10.6%
7/13/06 The stock market is going to fall… The most damage to the Dow (and other popular averages) will occur during the months of May through October… 2.0% 8.9% 14.6% 24.5%
6/8/06 On May 12, we took positions in Rydex Ursa…and in Rydex Arktos…commensurate with the beginning of the worst six months seasonal period. Our intention is to hold these positions until we get a signal that the unfavorable time frame is over. This will most likely occur in October. 0.7% 3.4% 12.5% 20.5%
5/4/06 The stock market is soon to be in the next bear market phase. …The percentages are very good we will see a crash. -3.6% -2.6% 5.0% 13.7% 0
4/6/06 The next serious decline will begin within the coming six months. 1.2% -2.7% 3.1% 10.6%
3/9/06 The stock market overall still looks vulnerable to a correction, if not a full-blown bear market. …As we roar into March, continue to be cautious … no, bearish on the popular averages. 1.8% -1.3% 2.2% 9.0%
2/2/06 I cannot be optimistic about the stock market overall in 2006. …In Dow Industrial Average terms, 11,700 is not going to be exceeded by much, if at all. 0.6% 2.9% 0.6% 14.1%
12/1/05 My opinion is that a major high is due any time now. …I am suspicious that the market this year is tracing out a pattern similar to what we saw in December 1972. Prices rallied, probing old highs, right into January 1973. The Dow managed to eke out a new high at 1,050… Then high energy prices and an inflationary recession took the market back to 570 over the next two years. 0.3% 1.8% 1.9% 11.9%
11/3/05 You should be anticipating a trading rally…from now to the end of the year… 3.5% 3.6% 8.7% 13.4% +
9/1/05 …we stand at the beginning of a final attempt for the market to revive the dying cyclical  bull. Rest assured, the pros will be selling this strength, and so should you. …The next two months (September and October) will be exceedingly dangerous. At this stage of the game – at a top in a cyclical bull within a secular bear market – selling panics can and do occur. 0.4% 2.3% 5.4% 6.4%
8/4/05 …the bear will be under way by the end of August, but it might not be as evident then as it will be by the end of October. September and October are stacking up to be quite dangerous… -1.4% -2.7% 2.8% 2.9%
6/2/05 The popular averages look like they are topping out as the professionals are using the recent rally to liquidate. -0.8% 0.3% 4.4% 4.9%
4/28/05 …we may just have one hell of a bear market on our hands. The stock market is telling us that a recession is in the wings. 4.9% 8.2% 4.7% 14.9%
3/3/05 The market looks like it would like to run a bit here… -2.8% -0.7% -0.2% 5.4%
1/6/05 …we are not at the end of the bear in stocks…there
will be some good shorting opportunities soon.
1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 8.6%
12/2/04 The stock market will have difficulty during 2005. …My bet is with the bears. 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 6.0%
11/4/04 I have cyclical highs due in the stock market on or about November 12, so our position in these short funds have great promise over the next few months. 2.5% 2.4% 0.9% 5.3%
10/1/04 …there have been plenty of nasty Octobers in the past. This one warrants caution as well. …First, be prepared for weakness; and second, get set to buy into the coming lows. -0.1% 7.3% 3.7% 7.3% +
9/2/04 My take is that we will see the averages work a bit higher through the Labor Day weekend. …look for highs during the week after the Labor Day weekend. …You should be using strength to lighten up on your positions. 1.5% 6.5% 8.2% 10.3%
8/5/04 …expect a few sessions, or even a couple weeks of gradually higher stock prices, but this is only going to be one of those choppy, counter-trend move…novices will be doing the buying while the pros will be liquidating. Once the rally is over, the crowd (novices) will be holding the bag as prices turn back down. The best strategy for most of you will be to use strength to raise cash. …The possibility of a major decline this fall is still quite high. 3.0% 4.6% 10.4% 13.2%
7/1/04 My outlook for the stock market over the short term is to see a little “end of the quarter window dressing.” Next, there should be a brief celebration once the Fed makes its move. The market will then roll over and head down. Longer term, I am more pessimistic. …I am going to venture that 2005 will be the first down year ending in 5. -2.0% -1.3% 7.5% 6.7%
6/4/04 The McClellan Oscillator, for one, is telling us that we need to be looking for a selling point soon rather than the start of a new bull market. …Those who buy into the media’s hype about a new bull market will be sorely sorry as the year wears on. My cyclical studies still indicate more weakness through the balance of this year. -0.4% -0.4% 6.0% 6.4%
5/6/04 …the odds are that regardless of any strength we may see this month, the January highs will stand. …The next major move in stocks will be down. I estimate the first step in this decline will last until early June. …Ultimately, the resumption of the bear market that began in late 1999 will take the averages to new lows. 2.4% -3.0% 2.6% 4.7%
4/9/04 My cyclical work points to a high later in April, but caution may, indeed, be the better part of valor here. …don’t look for a great deal from the market – perhaps a test of the highs set last January, or a tad better. -4.3% -2.7% -2.0% 1.5% +
3/5/04 …we are heading to a major high in the stock market, which my cyclical studies are placing in mid to late April…I would not expect more than a test of the January highs… The longer term future of the market
is more ominous. Once the highs are in this April, I expect the averages will be on the down side for the balance of the year. …Complacent, non-trading oriented investors should be…making plans to liquidate stocks during this rally.
-0.5% -3.5% -3.3% 4.3% 0
1/9/04 One big change I see coming in 2004 is a serious correction in the stock markets. 2.1% 1.6% -0.7% 5.9%
12/5/03 The stock market looks tired, but perhaps the rally will continue a little while longer…there is not going to be much progress on the up side from here. The market
will hang, tease, and bump into overhead resistance until it finally begins a serious correction. …The risk in
buying here is very high, and the reward potential, very low. Investing in such an environment is not wise.
6.1% 8.1% 7.4% 12.0%
11/7/03 My advice in all of this is to be very conservative and very cautious. The market is not cheap; it’s certainly not
a bargain. Yes, higher prices are possible; but without some sort of setback first, it is not likely to gain significantly from here. We are probably in the eye of a storm. …My work at this time still points to the likelihood of a decline before further significant upside appreciation is possible.
0.7% 8.2% 3.2% 11.4%
9/5/03 I am still expecting a very severe decline for the popular averages as summer closes. …We will likely see a brief, short squeeze in early September that could pull the last of the bulls in while the pros liquidate. …I look for a decent rally from lows in October. …The market looks very favorable from October to March. 1.3% 4.2% 13.3% 9.5%
8/1/03 …you might at least lighten up during any further strength. It would be wise to put some stop loss orders under long positions. 4.3% 6.9% 15.4% 10.3%
7/3/03 I can envision some month-end and quarter-end strength, but the bear market rally is over. The questions are: how far will the market fall and how long will the next decline phase last? Frankly, my cyclical work is saying that the market looks vulnerable until the end of September. -0.3% 3.3% 12.8% 12.5%
6/6/03 …the bear market will be back in force. I have little doubt that we will see last October’s lows broken during this summer’s swan dive. …we have been warned, and time is running short for the rally. 2.0% 4.1% 7.8% 14.5%
5/2/03 …the next move appears to be down rather than up. If I had to put a time on this, I would guess next week. …the current investment climate is quite bearish. …The bottom line is that it is now time for some selling, and I look for the market averages to head for the down side during May. 4.5% 6.5% 12.7% 20.6%
4/4/03 …we will see some tradable rallies come along, but the market is going to go lower over the next 12 to 18 months. …the up side is limited and risk is high. We will likely muddle through April… It’s way too early to get bullish on stocks overall. 6.3% 12.2% 16.1% 29.8%
3/7/03 In the event that we see prices fall again – as we expect – to lows in mid-March…This will set up the second buy signal that I so favor. That second buy signal will reinforce our opinion of a tradable rally from mid-March lows. 6.2% 19.5% 24.0% 35.6% +
2/7/03 …our long term work is pointing to mid-2004 as the most likely spot for the next mini-bull market to begin. …We still expect to see prices violate the 2002 lows before we get anywhere close to the middle of next year. Near term cycles point to lows in mid-March… -3.5% 10.9% 17.4% 39.5% 0
1/3/03 Can there be a fourth down year in a row? You bet there can… I still look for prices to fall below the lows of 2002 this year. -5.4% -3.1% 9.3% 23.6%
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