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How About FibTimer?

Posted in Individual Gurus

A reader requested: “I would like to see your grade on FibTimer. They claim to have put up some impressive numbers over the years.”


FibTimer, owned and operated by Market Timing Strategies, Inc., claims to offer “stock market timing strategies [that] produce the most consistent, dependable profits of any mutual fund timing service that we are aware of.” Frank Kollar is the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer, president of Kollar Market Analytics, Inc. and president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc. The two companies apparently operate several other web sites.

While Frank Kollar has published many articles on investing, these articles (such as his “Past Commentaries”) are generally vague and the content therefore difficult to verify. The sample of four past “Email SPX / NDX Reports” offered with the “Past Commentaries” is far too small for statistical inference regarding his timing ability.

The descriptions of the specific strategies offered via FibTimer are too vague to allow independent testing.The performance results claimed for these strategies do not include enough detail on trades or assumptions to allow independent validation.

According to the FibTimer “Terms of Use” [underlining added]:

“Market timing strategies and market timing historical results featured on this web site are the result of research that includes backtesting. Market Timing Strategies, Inc. does not guarantee that future market timing results will be profitable. Anyone who makes investment decisions based on what they read here does so at their own risk and cannot hold Market Timing Strategies, Inc. or any of its employees, responsible.”

Backtesting may introduce data snooping bias (luck) into results and therefore overstate realistic expectations.

There are no references to Frank Kollar within MarketWatch, MSN Money or TheStreet.com.

In summary, there is not enough public information on FibTimer or financial media sites to support due diligence on the investment value of Frank Kollar’s advice.

Prospective subscribers could consider requiring access to Frank Kollar’s investing performance data from a real account before subscribing.

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