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How About Markus Rose?

| | Posted in: Individual Gurus

A reader asked: “Have you seen this market timer?”

The description of the methodology used by Markus Rose is generally vague and the astrological rationale implausible.

It is arguable that the lunar cycle relates systematically to stock returns via some effect on human behavior. See “The Lunar Cycle and Stock Returns”. Based on the physics and the return data, it seems more plausible that nocturnal luminosity rather than gravity drives any behavioral effect.

It is perhaps conceivable that there is some connection between recurring positions of planets and financial markets via correlated seasonal effects on human behavior, with the correlation intermediated by the tilt of the Earth’s axis relative to its solar orbital plane. However, it is implausible that planetary positions per se affect human behavior rather than any correlated seasonal changes in Earth’s environment. See:

“An Annual Worldwide Optimism Cycle (Sell in May)?”

“Seasonal Environmental Factors and Perceived Risk”

“Mirror Image Seasonality for Stocks and Treasuries?”

Markus Rose’s performance data is confusing, with the reporting methodology changing over time. Some of the older daily performance data appears to imply an accuracy on calling daily highs and lows that could/should, if true, have made him extremely wealthy.

The site presents a more qualitative “swing trading” forecast record, but that record appears to be constructed by the author retrospectively with an irregular frequency that could indicate non-representative sampling (cherry-picking) and may involve confirmation bias.

The significance (skill versus luck) of Markus Rose’s performance rankings as determined by Timer Digest is unclear without additional information, such as his rankings in other years and the number of competitors.

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